February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[NEG NAO]

[Allsnow]

41 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Did the  roundy plots go into MJO 8--1-2 a couple weeks ago ?

 

 

On 2/5/2020 at 1:37 PM, NittanyWx said:

See this is where I'm disagree.  I really am not a fan of using RMM plots when I can observe OLR/VPA data in real time.  This was our mid-Jan period.  That's about as coherent of a dateline forcing signal as you're gonna get...

 

 

 

And we still couldn't find a way to get durable cold out of this.  Some will argue that it was a bit more biased to SHem forcing due to some tropical activity, but you still had broad lift in the dateline regions and a ton of subsidence in the Maritime Continent.

Yes it did. The forcing made it into 8-1-2 but the convection firing by Australia muted the response. The roundy plots correctly predicted the 5-6 pass for this month at the end of January. It was laughed out by the usually suspects but again they were proven wrong 
 

The eps nailed the RNA pattern for February. It did have a hiccup at the end of January when it had a cold pattern in the 11-15 day. But outside of that it’s been okay. The GEFS have been too cold in the medium range. 

[Allsnow]

46 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

About everything, give it a rest and read more and post less

This is a ridiculous post from a member that should be on a daily post limit. 
 

The fact that you can’t give examples to your ridiculous claims makes your posts irrelevant.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yes it did. The forcing made it into 8-1-2 but the convection firing by Australia muted the response. 
 

The eps nailed the RNA pattern for February. It did have a hiccup at the end of January when it has a cold pattern in the 11-15 day. But outside of that it’s been okay. The GEFS have been too cold in the medium range. 

that warm water N of Australia was a warning shot that our winter was going to have issues (warm water would point to the MJO wanting to go back to 5/6 which it has now done twice)

[BxEngine]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is a ridiculous post from a member that should be on a daily post limit. 
 

The fact that you can’t give examples to your ridiculous claims makes your posts irrelevant.

He wont be responding for awhile. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

that warm water N of Australia was a warning shot that our winter was going to have issues (warm water would point to the MJO wanting to go back to 5/6 which it has now done twice)

Absolutely. It’s one of the main reasons this winter went down the toilet. The other being the Pv. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, BxEngine said:

He wont be responding for awhile. 

Thank you. Sorry for causing a stir.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Absolutely. It’s one of the main reasons this winter went down the toilet. The other being the Pv. 

the third reason is the AO/NAO-I wonder if either the MJO or the PV influenced that at all?

[Allsnow]

This was the latest Roundy plot. Convection gets close to the 6/7 boarder then a new wave forms in p2 by March 1.

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Give examples....what have they been wrong about 

You can't be serious . How about individual storms when both busted near the event ?

[MJO812]

58 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

About everything, give it a rest and read more and post less

I agree it has been bad but post less will not solve anything.  Allsnow is a good poster. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

the third reason is the AO/NAO-I wonder if either the MJO or the PV influenced that at all?

I’m not sure about the Ao. The Pv being so strong I don’t think has a effect on it. (I could be wrong) We really needed strat hits with such a strong PV and never got them. The Ao is so positive because of strong storm by the pole I believe..... @bluewave might know more 
 

I know we had some higher hgts in Greenland to start December. It obviously wasn’t a true -nao but helped sne score a good storm. Since then, yes it’s been MIA. The vortex near Greenland certainly doesn’t help. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You can't be serious . How about individual storms when both busted near the event ?

Inside 7 days it has been too snowy at times. But specifically speaking for H5 set ups it has not been bad. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Inside 7 days it has been too snowy at times. But specifically speaking for H5 set ups it has not been bad. 

I agree

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Give examples....what have they been wrong about 

If any of you have access to how the models have done since the Fall or last Summer never mind this Winter could you tell myself or others where we might find how the models have done or can you post the scores ? IMO,  I don't think any Model has done very well and I am talking about long before Dec 21st. If you guys can't post the verification scores, can you let me know where one might find recent scores and I would search for them myself? Thanks in advance

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Maybe some chances 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe some chances 

not a bad look-if (big if) we can get on the right side of the gradient b/w the SE ridge and the cold air, the storm track could work for us-models show  the corridor from TX to NE to be wetter than normal next few weeks.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

If any of you have access to how the models have done since the Fall or last Summer never mind this Winter could you tell myself or others where we might find how the models have done or can you post the scores ? IMO,  I don't think any Model has done very well and I am talking about long before Dec 21st. If you guys can't post the verification scores, can you let me know where one might find recent scores and I would search for them myself? Thanks in advance

I posted them the other day. The EPS has been the best scoring model after 5 days. While all models have a had a cold bias beyond 5 days, the GEFS has been much worse. 
 

http://www.frontierweather.com/verification.html

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

 I believe either Don S or Uncle had shown where there were more in March than Dec.

I remember reading that in here. ( Possible It was combined as you say ) . 

 

 

I can't speak for either of them and their posts are always spot on. My guess would be they were posting similar stats for the time period of 1950 or so to current. What I posted was from 1870 to current and I assure you it is accurate.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.24" of rain for the day.

Storm total 0.87"

[bluewave]

Newark reached a record high of 60 degrees today.  This was the 4th time near the start of February since 2017 to go 60 or warmer. It was also the 2nd record high. Last year came within a degree of a record tie.

 

2/4	69 in 1991	61 in 2019	59 in 2020
2/5	69 in 1991	68 in 2019	57 in 1993
2/6	69 in 2008	59 in 1938	57 in 2005+
2/7	60 in 2020	55 in 1990	54 in 2005
2/8	65 in 2017	63 in 1965	62 in 1933

 

[donsutherland1]

A rapidly intensifying storm tracked through the region today. Ahead of its trailing cold front, temperatures briefly rose to records in parts of the area. High temperatures included:

Boston: 56° (tied daily record set in 1878 and tied in 1925)
Bridgeport: 52° (tied daily record set in 1951)
Danbury: 53° (old record: 52°, 1938 and 2005)
Groton: 53° (old record: 50°, 2018)
Islip: 54° (old record: 52°, 1990)
Nantucket: 56° (old record: 54°, 1953)
New Haven: 54° (old record: 51°, 1951)
New York City-Central Park: 56°(old record: 54°, 1938)
New York City-JFK: 54° (old record: 53°, 1990)
New York City-LGA: 58° (old record: 52°, 1951, 1953, and 1955)
Newark: 60° (old record: 55°, 1990)
Providence: 57° (old record: 53°, 1925 and 1946)
Westhampton: 55° (old record: 52°, 2018)
White Plains: 52° (old record: 51°, 1990)

As a result of today's warmth, February 2020 has become just the 11th year since regular record keeping began in 1869 during which the first week of February had a mean temperature of 40° or above in New York City. All prior 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later.

As the storm passed, the barometric pressure fell below 980 mb in the region. Select minimum barometric readings included:

Bedford, MA: 28.66" (970.5 mb)
Boston: 28.67" (970.9 mb)
Bridgeport: 28.73" (972.9 mb)
Concord: 28.65" (970.2 mb)
Hartford: 28.65" (970.2 mb)
Manchester, NH: 28.64" (969.9 mb)
New York City: 28.82" (976.0 mb)
Newark: 28.80" (975.3 mb)
Poughkeepsie: 28.73" (972.9 mb)
Sanford, ME: 28.64" (969.9 mb)
White Plains: 28.74" (973.2 mb)
Worcester: 28.66" (970.5 mb)

In the wake of the intense storm that passed through the region earlier today, a cooler than normal, but not severely cold, weekend lies ahead. Moderation will again occur next week.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -0.91 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.272.

During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively.

Near or just after mid-month, some of the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. The MJO, its amplitude, and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February.

During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°.

At present, it is more likely than not that the February 15-21 period will be warmer than normal as a whole with only transient cold shots.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 14. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February.

On February 6, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.292 (RMM). The February 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.041.

[doncat]

Still have not reached freezing yet this month...even here in suburbia.

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, doncat said:

Still have not reached freezing yet this month...even here in suburbia.

Quote

 

we all will in a few hours

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

I posted them the other day. The EPS has been the best scoring model after 5 days. While all models have a had a cold bias beyond 5 days, the GEFS has been much worse. 
 

http://www.frontierweather.com/verification.html

Thanks a lot BW appreciate it

[donsutherland1]

Earlier today, daily snowfall amounts were as follows at select cities:

Binghamton: 7.2"
Burlington: 9.9"
Caribou: 8.9" (old daily record: 8.3", 1949)

Snowfall totals for winter 2019-2020 to date include:

Albany: 36.9" (1.1" below normal)
Baltimore: 1.8" (10.7" below normal)
Binghamton: 50.5" (0.6" below normal)
Boston: 14.9" (11.0" below normal)
Burlington: 55.0" (6.4" above normal)
Caribou: 84.6" (18.6" above normal)
New York City: 4.8" (9.6" below normal)
Newark: 6.9" (9.2" below normal)
Philadelphia: 0.3" (12.4" below normal)
Portland: 46.2" (8.7" above normal)
Washington, DC: 0.6" (9.5" below normal)

Winter 2019-2020 is the 27th winter on record that has seen New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 7. Mean total snowfall for the 26 prior cases was 15.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 27% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 73% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. Just 12% of such winters wound up with 30" or more seasonal snowfall vs. 41% of winters in the historic record.

The three most recent winters that saw less than 6" snow through February 7 were:

2001-02: 3.5" total seasonal snowfall
2006-07: 12.4" total seasonal snowfall
2007-08: 11.9" total seasonal snowfall

[NEG NAO]

This is getting slightly interesting on 0Z GFS and CMC- HP cutting across Canada and strength and position of Southeast Ridge will determine track of storm

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

This is getting slightly interesting on 0Z GFS and CMC- HP cutting across Canada and strength and position of Southeast Ridge will determine track of storm

Euro says no deal

[MJO812]

6z gfs looks nice 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 38.5degs., or 4degs. AN.

31* here at 6am.     31* at 7am.         39* by Noon.       41* by 3pm.     42* at 4pm.       39* by  9pm.

Already the rest of February needs to be -3.3 just to get to Normal.     Looks like we will be +5.8 by the 25th.

WINTER Update:

Starting Dec. 01  +4.3.     Starting Dec. 22   +7.4.

The next 17 days are averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN.(06Z, GFS)      3" of Snow on the 13th.      The EURO is in the 60's at this same time, but has snow on the 17th.    Who/What is responsible for this continuous stream of hash and trash?