weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Exactly. There is no -NAO block to stop the amp and cut. The AO is super positive to top it off and the PNA is negative, the horrific pattern for east coast snowstorms continues unabated since early December and we are approaching mid-February now. This pattern is reminiscent of the 1980’s Was just reading an article that said warmer temps are ruining ski seasons everywhere, even in places where there's enough snow, because the pack doesn't last or gets slushy and this affects some events. Article mentioned how some places are getting more lake effect because the lakes aren't freezing, and that Cleveland has been getting less snow and crappier cold springs too. Mentions the east coast as having a really bad year with lack of snow. And a report from ME dept of wildlife that comes to me noted that it has been a poor year for ice fishing because of warm temps, at least down state. It ain't happening this winter. The snowblowers are emptied and in mothballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 55 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Was just reading an article that said warmer temps are ruining ski seasons everywhere, even in places where there's enough snow, because the pack doesn't last or gets slushy and this affects some events. Article mentioned how some places are getting more lake effect because the lakes aren't freezing, and that Cleveland has been getting less snow and crappier cold springs too. Mentions the east coast as having a really bad year with lack of snow. And a report from ME dept of wildlife that comes to me noted that it has been a poor year for ice fishing because of warm temps, at least down state. It ain't happening this winter. The snowblowers are emptied and in mothballs. Also-no snow in coastal locations hurts them. The "backyard snow effect" makes people want to ski/board when they see snow in their backyard-not much of that this year around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: it all slides south of us off the coast and the next one after that too ………... The Euro has a storm so far north that it would be rain for the same timeframe so I wouldn't bet on the super supressed solution for this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: This rainstorm is lame Well, in this "winter" at least you know there'll be another one in no time to compare the lameness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Looks like there's a big flip in guidance The last 12 to 24 hours as we look to see our first real Artic cold Coming late next week and next weekend.. Vortex finally coming out of Alaska and heading towards Hudson Bay some guidance take us down close to zero In about seven days with the very active pattern maybe we can get lucky and get some snow. I'll believe it when I see it, though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, binbisso said: Looks like there's a big flip in guidance The last 12 to 24 hours as we look to see our first real Artic cold Coming late next week and next weekend.. Vortex finally coming out of Alaska and heading towards Hudson Bay some guidance take us down close to zero In about seven days with the very active pattern maybe we can get lucky and get some snow. I'll believe it when I see it, though. Are you serious? Better come before the leaves show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 Picked up 0.63" of rain for the day. Current temp 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Good Friday morning everyone, Feb 7. Interesting day ahead. No change to the obs only thread for wind gusts 45+ and/or damage reports if you'd like to use this. 20MB pressure rises and strong CAA this afternoon the combined drivers. I just dont think I can post during this period. In the meantime, the Euro continues spreading a coating of snow into nw NJ late this afternoon and I think its possible. Don't be surprised at seeing thunder in e PA midday with the 1mb/hour deepening rate of the sfc low. Also, the Sunday morning snow event I think is still on for nw NJ and se NYS...not sure if NYC can see any snow. I'd like to see the GGEM get onto this and so no guarantee that this event occurs. IF it happens..up to an inch possible high terrain nw NJ/se NYS. Cause: trailing 500MB weakening short wave. Late Sunday night-Monday morning...less certainty on snow same area of nw NJ/se NYS, but could happen with an inch or 2 before a change to rain. This minor impact event rain or snow in a part of our area is multimodeled. Cause: WAA associated with the next approaching trough and building 500 MB ridge east coast. 539A/7 hopefully no typos. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Next 8 days are averaging 38degs., or about 4.5degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging[06Z, GFS] 34.5degs., or near Normal---but it is Snowless. Already the remainder of February must be -2.7 to end near Normal. 44* here at 6am + Fog, 1/4 mile. 46* by 9am., 48* at 9:15am, Fog continuing. 50* at 10am. 53* at 11am, breezy, fog is gone. 57* at 11:33am, wind, rain going wild. Lasted just a few minutes, 54* at Noon. 51* at 1pm. 47* at 2pm. 38* by 5:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Overnight, the area of precipitation split into two distinct areas, one associated with the cold front and one offshore. As a result, precipitation totals were much lower than had been modeled across much of the region. At 6 am, the warm front was advancing toward central New Jersey. The temperature was 52° in Atlantic City with winds out of the south. Farther south, readings were in the middle and upper 50s in such cities as Salisbury and Washington, DC. Meanwhile, at Newark, the temperature was 41° with a north-northeast wind. At New York City, the temperature was 39° with a northeast wind. As a rapidly strengthening storm comes northward, the warm front will likely push across the region during the middle or latter part of the morning. Temperatures could then rise rapidly into the 50s for several hours ahead of the trailing cold front. Daily record high temperatures could be challenged in a few locations. Select daily records include: Bridgeport: 52°, 1951 Islip: 52°, 1990 New York City: 54°, 1938 Newark: 55°, 1990 Providence: 53°, 1925 and 1946 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 EPS looks like garbage again as far as the eye can see. If anyone is expecting a full scale pattern flip at the end of this month, it had better hurry 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Eps looked horrible over night. -pna and southeast ridge then by the end of the month it’s a zonal flow with lower hgts in Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 48 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps looked horrible over night. -pna and southeast ridge then by the end of the month it’s a zonal flow with lower hgts in Canada. These things change daily. We won't know the reality for at least 2 weeks or after Feb 20. Truth is the pattern will remain locked in until seasonal changes come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 We continue to see the 240hr SE ridge correct stronger than the 360hr forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: We continue to see the 240hr SE ridge correct stronger than the 360hr forecast. 500mb model bias has been way too aggressive with heights in the GOA/AK region all season. Happened again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 A little slice of an early Vermont morning for the snow-starved. There was some snow around, and I don’t know the stats - I know others here do - but there was plenty of brown and a lot bare spots up there. I would guess Vermont is also below normal for snowfall this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Maureen said: A little slice of an early Vermont morning for the snow-starved. There was some snow around, and I don’t know the stats - I know others here do - but there was plenty of brown and a lot bare spots up there. I would guess Vermont is also below normal for snowfall this winter. Wonderful photo. Burlington has been somewhat below normal in terms of snowfall (greater snow deficits in southern Vermont). That should change over the next two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Morning thoughts... The EPS and GEFS are in relatively good agreement that the MJO will likely move into Phase 6 toward mid-February. Uncertainty exists with respect to amplitude (mainly amplitude of +1.000 or above vs. amplitude of +1.500 or above) and duration in Phase 6. At low amplitudes in Phase 6, the PNA has greater influence over the overall pattern during mid- and late February. In general, when the PNA is negative, warmth prevails in the Middle Atlantic region; when the PNA is positive, colder than normal conditions prevail. At high amplitudes when tropical forcing is stronger, the AO has a greater influence. The AO+ is warm; the AO- is cold. The latest guidance suggests that the AO will likely remain positive to strongly positive for at least the next two weeks. There is more uncertainty concerning the state of the MJO. Overall, based on the preponderance of guidance, odds may somewhat favor a warmer than normal February 15-21 period overall with cold shots being relatively transient in nature. That has been the base case in the extended range on the EPS. The GEFS have moved in that direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Belmar, which was 48° at 7 am had a 9 am temperature of 55°. The warm front continues to push northward through New Jersey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, NittanyWx said: 500mb model bias has been way too aggressive with heights in the GOA/AK region all season. Happened again. I wish I had a dollar for everytime the models have pumped a fantasy -EPO ridge in the long range since the end of November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 We " may " head towards p8 to open March if this wave doesn`t die like the last one just did in late Jan. Although there are more 6 inch snows at KNYC in March than in December, the book has already closed for me on this winter. Why bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Roundy plots have the wave collapsing on the boarder of p6/7. Then by March 1st another wave forms in p2. Phase 2/3 are cold in March but if the Pv is still uber strong along with AO idk how the cold will get here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Lowest barometric pressure I can find is 28.88 at several locations in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, weathermedic said: Lowest barometric pressure I can find is 28.88 at several locations in NJ. While strong, the low is really broad and elongated at the moment with a relatively large area of similar pressure readings. Lowest are Allentown and Mount Pocono at 28.85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Sun peeking out here at work just east of JFK airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Near 11 am, the warm front was pushing northward through the New York City area. The temperature in Central Park had reached 50°. Temperatures in New York City ranged from 59° on Staten Island to 45° in the Bronx. In addition, some record highs were tied or broken in the region: Islip: 53° (old record: 52°, 1990) New York City-LGA: 52° (tied daily record set in 1951 and tied in 1953 and 1955) Westhampton: 53° (old record: 52°, 2018) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 51 at my station in Sheepshead Bay with a southeast wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Icon shows a big snowstorm at the end of its run! 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 At 11:25 am, the barometric pressure at Teterboro Airport was 28.78" (974.6 mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 39 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Icon shows a big snowstorm at the end of its run! In the year 2525????....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now