Dan76 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 get that at 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Models indicating a possible sting jet as the low passes by us while rapidly intensifying. Wind advisories likely behind the system with potential for more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Don't think I can recall so much rain forecasted for one week in Feburary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Models indicating a possible sting jet as the low passes by us while rapidly intensifying. Wind advisories likely behind the system with potential for more. Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore. Maybe this could spin up a few water spouts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, TriPol said: Maybe this could spin up a few water spouts! This forecast sounding from LI shows the instability is based between 850-900mb. The inversion is far too strong to get a water spout, but the combo of a pressure fall/rise couplet associated with the passing low/front in addition to strong cold air advection just behind the front will likely allow some of the 40-50KT winds to mix to the surface for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 4 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Currently 33/19. a section of Upton’s AFD below for some frozen types tonight. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Forecast is generally on track. Precipitation currently over the Delmarva peninsula will make its way into the forecast area around midnight, with some scattered precipitation moving in beforehand. Pushed back the slight chance POPs about an hour later than previously forecast based on mesoscale guidance. Also, dew points are lower than previously forecast. Will have to monitor how they progress over the next couple of hours for possibility of brief wintry mix where rain is currently forecast for the onset of the precipitation. Winter weather advisories remain in effect for portions of interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior souther CT for a period of freezing rain late tonight into Friday morning. Yea I noticed dewpoints are still pretty low, theres room for evaporational cooling for sure, obviously will only have any real impact for the interior zones of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Pressure sub 980mb as low passes on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Wantage NJ glaze. freezing drizzle 31.5F. some pavement not affected by glaze but wood surfaces, vegetation for sure. 531A/6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 Picked up 0.53" of rain so far today. Current temp 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 40 here I will be looking at webcams from upstate all day today and just imagine that was the coast getting all that snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 5 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore. Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Next 8 days are averaging 42degs., or about 8.5degs. AN. 42* here at 6am+Rain. 41* at 6:30am. 44* by Noon+drizzle. Next 17 days on the 06Z GFS are averaging 35degs., or about 1deg. AN, with 7" of Snow from the 17th onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Good Thursday morning, Feb 6. A few thoughts. 1) Thinking all that shallow cold air near Albany might tend to drain south toward nw NJ next 24hours with surprise high terrain icing into tonight above 1500 feet near the Sussex Orange county border. Mesoscale n-ne flow with a wave out to the s of LI today-tonight. 2) Agree w previous posters on damaging wind potential NJ-CT-MA ,maybe even se NYS ,with extreme low pres followed by very strong pres rises in the afternoon and slug of CAA. Also, I'll try and check, but unsure if a gravity wave has been considered for our area tomorrow? IF?? that would occur, wind gusts in places would easily exceed 60MPH. 3) I'm getting some confidence back that at least ne/PA/nw NJ/interior se NYS should see a period or two of snow Sat night-early Sun (mid-Atlc states sw passage), and again Sun night (WAA). Plenty cold for sure... and then does any meager snow accumulate in NYC (less than 1")? I think we need 2 more days of model evolution see if any consensus develops but am pretty sure nw NJ high terrain will see some snow accumulation this weekend. 617A/6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city. I tend to agree there could be some strong winds and damage with this. It’s been relatively calm for a couple weeks wind wise. I’m looking forward to enjoying the right side of the storm in Vermont tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 8 hours ago, Dan76 said: Amazing fetch, that’s going to create one monster swell aimed at Europe. I would Not be surprised to see some of the largest waves ever ridden at Nazaree Portugal. It’s too bad that thing will not disrupt the PV and drop the AO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city. Also the models have been pretty consistent with this for a few runs now. The NWS seems to be hesitant to ramp up the winds on Friday, although I noticed they are finally calling for some gusts in the 30s and 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Areas around NYC are on track for their first sub 980 mb pressures since 10-29-17. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=18&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&sdate=2017%2F01%2F01&days=1000&var=mslp&dpi=100&_fmt=js 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Also the models have been pretty consistent with this for a few runs now. The NWS seems to be hesitant to ramp up the winds on Friday, although I noticed they are finally calling for some gusts in the 30s and 40s. Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts. I could see them issuing it for coastal areas. Not so much for inland areas. Gonna be brutal being sandblasted taking pictures of the surf tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts. Long Island could see higher gusts than that since it will be closer to the strongest LLJ near frontal passage. The warmer surface temperatures should really steepen the low level lapse rates for good mixing along and behind the cold front. Euro has highs in the low 60’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I tend to agree there could be some strong winds and damage with this. It’s been relatively calm for a couple weeks wind wise. I’m looking forward to enjoying the right side of the storm in Vermont tomorrow What do you think about snow vs. ice for the southern part of VT? Trying to decide if Okemo will be decent by Saturday or do they get hung up in sleet/ice too long. The norther part of the state looks to get dumped on but I only have enough time/energy for a day trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Long Island could see higher gusts than that since it will be closer to the strongest LLJ near frontal passage. The warmer surface surface temperatures should really steepen the low level lapse rates for good mixing along and behind the cold front. Euro has highs in the low 60’s. Agree probably closer to 60-65mph for parts of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Through 9 am, New York City had received 0.43" rain. That brought year-to-date precipitation to 2.43", which is 1.87" below normal. However, another system will likely bring 0.50"-1.50" rain late today into tomorrow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. A few locations could see locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". That system was already producing heavy rain in parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. As of 9:35 am, Knoxville, TN had picked up 2.22" rain. That set a new daily record for February 6. The previous record was 1.75", which was set in 2004. Over the past two days, Knoxville has received 5.04" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, tdp146 said: What do you think about snow vs. ice for the southern part of VT? Trying to decide if Okemo will be decent by Saturday or do they get hung up in sleet/ice too long. The norther part of the state looks to get dumped on but I only have enough time/energy for a day trip. Take the extra 45 minutes, gain some elevation and latitude and head to Killington. Should be epic there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Through 9 am, New York City had received 0.43" rain. That brought year-to-date precipitation to 2.43", which is 1.87" below normal. However, another system will likely bring 0.50"-1.50" rain late today into tomorrow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. A few locations could see locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". That system was already producing heavy rain in parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. As of 9:35 am, Knoxville, TN had picked up 2.22" rain. That set a new daily record for February 6. The previous record was 1.75", which was set in 2004. Over the past two days, Knoxville has received 5.04" rain. Looks fairly active for next few weeks, wouldn't be surprised if we flip to above normal before month ends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 A record positive AO, with a positive NAO in February. This is not even close to being our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Parts of CT could challenge their all-time February record lowest pressure on Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Parts of CT could challenge their all-time February record lowest pressure on Friday. Latest GFS looks even lower at 970 near same spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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