February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 41.5degs., or about 8degs. AN.

42* here at 6am.      Really little movement here today,  46* at 4pm.

Due to the hot start,  the remainder of the month already needs to be almost -2 to get back to normal.

The next 17 days are averaging 37degs(06Z, GFS)., or about 2degs. AN.      Only a little snow showing during Week 3 of the month.         This would put us at +4 for the month by around the 21st.

The 12Z, GFS is up to an average of 41degs. or about 6degs. AN, and it has No Snow.    The 41deg. Mean would be like Dec. 05 or Mar. 13.    Well at least that is settled.   LOL.

[TJW014]

It's National Weatherperson's Day today.

On the other hand, the high temperature today was likely set at midnight here at 55°. It was a great night. Warm enough to take a nice walk along the Boardwalk without wearing 3 layers

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning, Feb 5.  Not going to knash my teeth over general model loss for a Sunday morning snow event. It appears the Feb 6-7 complex strong  trough passage may suppress the trailing  500MB trough for the nice little waa coastal wave.  It's still 5 days out and it may come back. UK has a hint,  EPS has a bit of snow, GEFS continues to cut off snow, now back to near Baltimore on the 5/6z run.  

Think up front, we have enough modeling issues for tomorrow mornings ice event, particularly the  southeast edge extent, with varying solutions. Less than ideal certitude but will watch the SPC HREF trends today (biased a deg or 2 cold).  Still wet bulbs will be down and a little sleet/glaze should occur predawn Thursday with elevations possibly have a freezing rain occurrence through 11A, if precip lasts that long. 

My own take for nw NJ: Sleet or freezing rain develops 11PM to 1AM and changes to rain from Easton PA to Warren County NJ between 5-7AM, then changing to rain in southwest Sussex County NJ  6-8AM, but freezing rain continues high terrain of northern Sussex County above 1000 feet, possibly as late as 11AM (High Point, Vernon).   Probably my last post til tomorrow morning.  644A/5

[s2sailorlis]

Long time observer here..always well informed discussion and I’ve learned a bit.

given latest forecast, how does Friday evening look for flying back into NY area?  Models seem to have things clear out by late afternoon it seems.  But likely all jammed up into JFK.  I have an option to fly into Hartford (Bradley) later that evening arriving 10pm and it seems things will settle down by then.  

[bluewave]

NYC is currently the 10th warmest for 12-1 to 2-4.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 4	Missing Count
1	2016-02-04	43.0	0
2	2002-02-04	41.8	0
3	1932-02-04	41.6	0
4	2012-02-04	40.5	0
5	1950-02-04	40.0	0
6	2007-02-04	39.9	0
7	1933-02-04	39.6	0
8	1995-02-04	39.4	0
-	1913-02-04	39.4	0
9	1998-02-04	39.2	0
10	2020-02-04	39.1	0
-	1991-02-04	39.1	0

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, s2sailorlis said:

Long time observer here..always well informed discussion and I’ve learned a bit.

given latest forecast, how does Friday evening look for flying back into NY area?  Models seem to have things clear out by late afternoon it seems.  But likely all jammed up into JFK.  I have an option to fly into Hartford (Bradley) later that evening arriving 10pm and it seems things will settle down by then.  

rain moves out by mid afternoon, temps in the low 40's.  I think you're fine.

[purduewx80]

3 hours ago, s2sailorlis said:

Long time observer here..always well informed discussion and I’ve learned a bit.

given latest forecast, how does Friday evening look for flying back into NY area?  Models seem to have things clear out by late afternoon it seems.  But likely all jammed up into JFK.  I have an option to fly into Hartford (Bradley) later that evening arriving 10pm and it seems things will settle down by then.  

Wind will be the main issue Friday evening. Probably minor delays if anything. 

[forkyfork]

the band of 2"+ rainfall has trended SE of us. we can't even get a semi interesting rainfall event. make it stop

[A Moonlit Sky]

15 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

I was doing some yardwork this afternoon and noticed some bugs flying around

 

50f currently. scary times even if u like the warmth

I swear I saw two mosquitoes a week ago. It's not good.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

The Arctic Oscillation is now poised to begin a rise to extreme positive levels over the next several days.

Through the coming weekend, little or no accumulating snow is likely for snow-starved Baltimore, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

An AO+ pattern favors upstate New York, northern New England, and southern Quebec. Such cities as Burlington, Caribou, Montreal, and Plattsburgh typically do well in such patterns.

For reference, a quick look at Burlington is in order. Through February 4, Burlington had received 41.6" snow, which is 5.2" below normal. During the February 1-14, 1950-2019 period, Burlington had daily snowfall of 2"or more on 9.9% days and daily snowfall of 4" or more on 5.2% days. However, when the AO was +1.000 or above, those percentages increased to 11.2% and 6.5% respectively.

Therefore, based on the forecast pattern, Burlington has an above climatological probability of seeing such snowfall. In fact, when the AO was +1.000 or above, the frequency of daily snowfall of 10" or more was just over 80% above climatology.

Consistent with the pattern, the guidance is in reasonable consensus that Burlington will likely see 10"-20" snow through February 9. As a result, Burlington will likely move from below average seasonal snowfall to above average seasonal snowfall at the end of the coming weekend.

 

[JerseyWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC is currently the 10th warmest for 12-1 to 2-4.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 4	Missing Count
1	2016-02-04	43.0	0
2	2002-02-04	41.8	0
3	1932-02-04	41.6	0
4	2012-02-04	40.5	0
5	1950-02-04	40.0	0
6	2007-02-04	39.9	0
7	1933-02-04	39.6	0
8	1995-02-04	39.4	0
-	1913-02-04	39.4	0
9	1998-02-04	39.2	0
10	2020-02-04	39.1	0
-	1991-02-04	39.1	0

 

What made 2016 so warm?  I can't remember, were there any very ++AN highs that year?  Even among all that warmth, we still pulled out the huge blizzard...this year is atrocious.

[PB-99]

 Feb 24, 2016  

 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

What made 2016 so warm?  I can't remember, were there any very ++AN highs that year?  Even among all that warmth, we still pulled out the huge blizzard...this year is atrocious.

The 50.8 +13.3 December.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	1990-1991	39.1	0
8	1998-1999	38.6	0
9	1948-1949	38.5	0
10	1889-1890	38.4	0

[RockawayRowdies]

FZR- right now in mahwah

Pinging on windshield as I eat my lunch

[JerseyWx]

Just now, bluewave said:

The 50.8 +13.3 December.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	1990-1991	39.1	0
8	1998-1999	38.6	0
9	1948-1949	38.5	0
10	1889-1890	38.4	0

That's my bad, something in my brain read that chart as beginning on Jan. 1, December 2015 will do it for sure.

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, Minenfeld! said:

I swear I saw two mosquitoes a week ago. It's not good.

I had mosquitoes and swarms of gnats during the day yesterday, and the moths were out while I was trying to get some work done by headlamp at night. Very annoying and more than a little alarming.

[Brian5671]

Red paint sale

[NittanyWx]

20 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Great post. The only issue I have is that we really haven’t had a coherent wave in the cold phases since November. From the start of  December it has been all warm phases and movement into 7/8 has been to weak. The pv position and strength has played huge role in this disaster. Just a lot went wrong between the pv and mjo. 
 

We did have a coherent wave into the cold phases back in Nov 2019. That was a big reason why that month was so cold. 

See this is where I'm disagree.  I really am not a fan of using RMM plots when I can observe OLR/VPA data in real time.  This was our mid-Jan period.  That's about as coherent of a dateline forcing signal as you're gonna get...

 

 

 

And we still couldn't find a way to get durable cold out of this.  Some will argue that it was a bit more biased to SHem forcing due to some tropical activity, but you still had broad lift in the dateline regions and a ton of subsidence in the Maritime Continent.

[A Moonlit Sky]

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

I had mosquitoes and swarms of gnats during the day yesterday, and the moths were out while I was trying to get some work done by headlamp at night. Very annoying and more than a little alarming.

This is one of the things that bothers me about people who say "if it's not gonna snow, make it warm": we need the cold to kill off these pests and keep the ecosystem functioning. It's not about your personal comfort level.

[JustinRP37]

45 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

This is one of the things that bothers me about people who say "if it's not gonna snow, make it warm": we need the cold to kill off these pests and keep the ecosystem functioning. It's not about your personal comfort level.

See right there, you called mosquitos pests, but frogs and fish would call that meal time. The ecosystem needs the 'pests' quite a bit. I actually got hit hard once in a committee meeting during my PhD when I made a comment that a low tick year was great for humans. While that is true, there are plenty of other organisms that rely on ticks (some of which we probably do not even know about). The warm weather right now may actually hurt those 'pests' more than just staying seasonable. Why? Because they are becoming active and then when (if) it turns sharply cold, they will die without completing their lifecycle. These odd warm periods may through off flowering times, which may impact pollinators and a whole host of ecosystems services. Now if we were talking about reducing the spread of the invasive Asian tiger mosquito then we need much colder temperatures, just seasonable won't reduce egg viability.

[Rtd208]

Flood Watch in effect here from Thursday afternoon thru Friday afternoon for rainfall amounts up to 3"

[Rtd208]

 

[CIK62]

Gotta love what JB has been doing by changing analogs by the week or two in one week, hoping to hit the right one.        Then when some uninformed idiot interviews him he will point to that one and not be asked about all the 'fails'.        This is could also be prearranged----DON'T ASK ME ABOUT THAT ONE!........I TOLD YOU THAT.       This is regularly done on the business  channels when so called gurus and experts are given a chance to blab away a 'commercial announcement' w/o challenge.          Even the written word is corrupted this way when you read a series of real news stories, then come to one with the microtype     THIS IS A SPONSORED AD     but you miss the fine print.

You can't get out of a hole by making it bigger and deeper........... unless you intend to dig all the way through the Earth and emerge from the antipodes point.    LOL

Really this weekend looks like the only chance for snow as THK stays near critical level all the rest of the time.      The 17/18 probably has no precipitation anyway.

[bluewave]

Really extreme pattern coming up for the North Atlantic and surrounding regions.

 

[Cfa]

2 hours ago, Minenfeld! said:

This is one of the things that bothers me about people who say "if it's not gonna snow, make it warm": we need the cold to kill off these pests and keep the ecosystem functioning. It's not about your personal comfort level.

It’s a good thing that Weather/Climate is wholly unaffected by individual comfort levels*, I want a string of 70’s right now but I’ll settle for what we’ve been getting.

*Oddly enough, EWR did reach 80 in February 2018, a mere 2 weeks after I made a post suggesting that very thing was bound to happen in the future.

But despite the mild temperatures this winter it hasn’t been consistently warm enough to disturb the already heavily disturbed natural environment from its slumber. Enjoy the not-cold weather.

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

It’s a good thing that Weather/Climate is wholly unaffected by individual comfort levels*, I want a string of 70’s right now but I’ll settle for what we’ve been getting.

*Oddly enough, EWR did reach 80 in February 2018, a mere 2 weeks after I made a post suggesting that very thing was bound to happen in the future.

But despite the mild temperatures this winter it hasn’t been consistently warm enough to disturb the already heavily disturbed natural environment from its slumber. Enjoy the not-cold weather.

I don't disagree but I will say there are buds on the trees outside my job in Manhattan from that 65 degree day back in January.

[hudsonvalley21]

Currently 33/19.    a section of Upton’s AFD below for some frozen types tonight.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Forecast is generally on track. Precipitation currently over the
Delmarva peninsula will make its way into the forecast area
around midnight, with some scattered precipitation moving in
beforehand. Pushed back the slight chance POPs about an hour
later than previously forecast based on mesoscale guidance.
Also, dew points are lower than previously forecast. Will have
to monitor how they progress over the next couple of hours for
possibility of brief wintry mix where rain is currently
forecast for the onset of the precipitation.

Winter weather advisories remain in effect for portions of interior
NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior souther CT for a
period of freezing rain late tonight into Friday morning.

 

[donsutherland1]

Today was noticeably cooler than yesterday, but still warmer than normal for the season. Overall, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will very likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February.

Nevertheless, the pattern will be increasingly active over the next week. Tonight into tomorrow and tomorrow night into Friday, a pair of storms will affect the region. Over the next 60 hours, much of the region will see 1.25"-2.50" precipitation with locally higher amounts. The most likely areas to see accumulating snowfall from these storms will be northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England. 

Another system could follow during the weekend. Some rain or snow showers with perhaps a minor accumulation of snow is possible from Washington, DC to New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +6.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.167.

During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 13. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February.

On February 4, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.681 (RMM). The February 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.681.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

I don't disagree but I will say there are buds on the trees outside my job in Manhattan from that 65 degree day back in January.

I'm frankly tired of this damp gloomy weather. it's like an endless late autumn. Once in awhile the sun peeks through but its windy and a little colder so you can't really enjoy it. It's not quite cold enough to feel like true winter, and not nearly warm enough to be spring like. It just sucks. About another month or so and we hopefully will warm up enough to at least enjoy a walk in the park.

[Dan76]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Really extreme pattern coming up for the North Atlantic and surrounding regions.