February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Allsnow]

51 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems the last 1-2 years that when the Euro has an extremely weak MJO and the GFS wants to go insane the Euro is right....on the other end when both agree on a decent amplitude wave the GFS tends to be more correct while the Euro kills it too fast.

Roundy plots do not support the gfs thinking. 

[nycwinter]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Roundy plots do not support the gfs thinking. 

gfs has been really terrible of late with it's snow predictions reminds me of the old nam...

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

gfs has been really terrible of late with it's snow predictions reminds me of the old nam...

This clown map is total BS every run has totals varying widely

[PB-99]

We are looking at close to 3 inches of RAIN by Friday PM along I/95

 

[bluewave]

While all the models have had a cold bias beyond 120 hrs, the GEFS has been much worse than the EPS.
 

 

[NEG NAO]

This 12Z Euro  snow map through the weekend is more realistic then the GFS IMO

[donsutherland1]

Afternoon thoughts...

1. The light rain that had been affecting parts of the region continues to move eastward, with most of the showers south of Long Island's South Shore.

2. New York City is solidly on track for a 40° or higher mean temperature for the first week of February. The most likely range is 42.0° (7th warmest) to 43.7° (3rd warmest).

3. A series of waves Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday will bring mainly rain to such cities as Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Appreciable snow will be confined well north and west of the cities, particularly in an area running from central/upstate New York to northern New England.

4. Another system will move rapidly eastward off the Middle Atlantic coast and out to sea this weekend. Historic experience with the teleconnections and the emerging model consensus suggest that there is the potential for a light accumulation of snow in the above-mentioned cities.  The risk of a significant (6" or greater snowfall) during the weekend is low.

[forkyfork]

51 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This clown map is total BS every run has totals varying widely

includes sleet includes sleet includes sleet includes sleet

[SnoSki14]

Insane we might have another top 5 warmest Feb on record. 

[Allsnow]

@uncle W how warm was the winter of 92-93? I remember January and most of February very warm.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

This clown map is total BS every run has totals varying widely

It’s a 200 hour snowfall map that includes sleet from a op model! Are you really this shocked  by it? 

[PB-99]

Let`s let this one fizzle to another 0 and then we are owed a big year.  @bluewave

Next year or the one after. 

Don`t even want to try salvage anything here, let it die the death it deserves.

 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

6 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Let`s let this one fizzle to another 0 and then we are owed a big year.  @bluewave

Next year or the one after. 

Don`t even want to try salvage anything here, let it die the death is deserves.

 

 

 

[Rtd208]

Mild day out there for early February.

Current temp 57

[White Gorilla]

Euro looks to torch us next week 

[TJW014]

It's 64 here. I was astonished the sun came out this afternoon for a brief moment

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

It's 64 here. I was astonished the sun came out this afternoon for a brief moment

67 degrees in Atlantic City after the sun came out.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KACY

[donsutherland1]

The latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will reach extreme positive values (probably +5.000 or above for the first time since March 8, 2015):

Extreme AO+ situations typically lead to much above normal temperatures on the U.S. East Coast and in Europe. In large part, the consistent guidance suggesting the potential for an extreme AO+ event allowed for a high degree of confidence that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions would likely see a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal February and that Europe would see a much warmer than normal February (with the warmest anomalies occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia). The cooler air that moves into Europe later this week will again yield to much warmer than normal conditions early next week.

The GEFS Day 8-12 average 500 mb height anomalies forecast shows ridging on the East Coast and over much of Europe. The 8-12 day temperature average is warmer than normal in both areas.

Finally, should the AO remain strongly positive through mid-month, the probability of significant snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region will be low during that period. Not surprisingly, the ECMWF, which had been showing a potentially major snowstorm during the second week of February has now backed off from that idea.

[Isotherm]

The latest PDO value, unsurprisingly, is now strongly negative for January, reflective of the substantial SST cooling across the northern and eastern Pacific. The z500 pattern for February will be quite close to my analog package which featured the composite RNA structure, namely, lower heights toward the NW and higher heights in the SE US.

202001

-1.17

 

 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

The latest PDO value, unsurprisingly, is now strongly negative for January, reflective of the substantial SST cooling across the northern and eastern Pacific. The z500 pattern for February will be quite close to my analog package which featured the composite RNA structure, namely, lower heights toward the NW and higher heights in the SE US.

202001

-1.17

 

 

This has been our default February pattern since 2017 as this Niña-like  regime continues. 

 

[White Gorilla]

52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will reach extreme positive values (probably +5.000 or above for the first time since March 8, 2015):

Extreme AO+ situations typically lead to much above normal temperatures on the U.S. East Coast and in Europe. In large part, the consistent guidance suggesting the potential for an extreme AO+ event allowed for a high degree of confidence that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions would likely see a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal February and that Europe would see a much warmer than normal February (with the warmest anomalies occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia). The cooler air that moves into Europe later this week will again yield to much warmer than normal conditions early next week.

The GEFS Day 8-12 average 500 mb height anomalies forecast shows ridging on the East Coast and over much of Europe. The 8-12 day temperature average is warmer than normal in both areas.

Finally, should the AO remain strongly positive through mid-month, the probability of significant snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region will be low during that period. Not surprisingly, the ECMWF, which had been showing a potentially major snowstorm during the second week of February has now backed off from that idea.

We won't shoot the messenger. 

[Allsnow]

17 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

Most meteorologists I know did not disregard the MJO.  If anything, the pattern did not mimic the expected outcome when it transitioned to the 'colder phases' this year.  What does that tell you?  If you want to say that maybe the MJO has had more of an IO/warmer phase bias and that bathwater from a slow monsoon advancement north of Australia torpedoed cold chances earlier in winter, that's fine by me. 

 

But in a year with very little blocking and a strong ass MJO that was coherent thru the colder phases, we still never got durable cold.  When that happens odds are other things going on overwhelmed the typical MJO wave response.  And that again brings us back to the PV...

Great post. The only issue I have is that we really haven’t had a coherent wave in the cold phases since November. From the start of  December it has been all warm phases and movement into 7/8 has been to weak. The pv position and strength has played huge role in this disaster. Just a lot went wrong between the pv and mjo. 
 

We did have a coherent wave into the cold phases back in Nov 2019. That was a big reason why that month was so cold. 

[Allsnow]

Definitely a torch alert for next week with the mjo in 5/6. I would expect some serious warmth from the mid Atlantic into southern New England 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely a torch alert for next week with the mjo in 5/6. I would expect some serious warmth from the mid Atlantic into southern New England 

Agree. Big time warmth next week, probably a couple days well into the 60’s for most of the area

[CIK62]

EURO is headed for the 60's next week.       GFS pushes any cold further into the future and is not worth mentioning.       Model verification is non-existent and it seems like the data ingested by the models is not being measured, but rather produced by a random number generator somewhere.

Really, the first TS Cluster of the year is more likely than a blizzard.      I bet anything like a blizzard WILL NOT BE PREDICTED much ahead of time.

Judah Cohen told SD a month ago that the winter was over due to a Sudden Ionospheric Warming, which he could not find a cause for, but which guaranteed the PV would remain strong.     I mentioned it here, but saw no comments.

YIKES Central Park got up to 60 and I have held a straight line for 3 hours now  (4pm-7pm) at 58*, my High for today (dare I say so far?)    59* at 8pm. Did It!

[White Gorilla]

15 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

EURO is headed for the 60's next week.       GFS pushes any cold further into the future and is not worth mentioning.       Model verification is non-existent and it seems like the data ingested by the models is not being measured, but rather produced by a random number generator somewhere.

Really, the first TS Cluster of the year is more likely than a blizzard.      I bet anything like a blizzard WILL NOT BE PREDICTED much ahead of time.

Judah Cohen told SD a month ago that the winter was over due to a Sudden Ionospheric Warming, which he could not find a cause for, but which guaranteed the PV would remain strong.     I mentioned it here, but saw no comments.

Wow, never heard of a sudden ionospheric warming.  Strat warming yes, but not that one.  When and where was the last such ionospheric warming?  What are the usual impacts? 

[bluewave]

At least we aren’t alone with the challenging snowfall situation.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

 

 

[the_other_guy]

I was doing some yardwork this afternoon and noticed some bugs flying around

 

50f currently. scary times even if u like the warmth

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures again rose into the 50s and 60s in the Middle Atlantic region today. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 60°; Atlantic City: 69° (old record: 68°, 1991); Baltimore: 67°; Georgetown, DE: 69° (old record: 66°, 1988); Islip: 53°; New York City: 60°; Newark: 59°; Philadelphia: 64°; Richmond: 72° (tied record set in 1991); Salisbury: 67°; Sterling: 67°; Washington, DC: 65°; and, Wilmington, DE: 68° (old record: 67°, 1991).

Following today's warmth, tomorrow will be noticeably cooler, but still warmer than normal for the season. Overall, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February.

Nevertheless, the pattern will become increasingly active over the next week. Tomorrow night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday, a pair of storms will affect the region. Over the next 84 hours, much of the region will see 1.25"-2.50" precipitation with locally higher amounts.

The most likely areas to see accumulating snowfall from these storms will be northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England. 

Another system could follow during the weekend. A light accumulation of snow is possible from Washington, DC to New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +3.65 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.191.

During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak above +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, neither Philadelphia nor New York City saw any 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 12. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February.

On February 3, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.668 (RMM). The February 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.606.

[Isotherm]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been our default February pattern since 2017 as this Niña-like  regime continues. 

 

 

 

Indeed -- a remarkably persistent regime. I also hope that the past couple of winters have rather debunked the notion that weak El Nino automatically translates to cold/snow for our region. Even with a more central-west based warm SST anomaly this winter, the z500 was quite the inverse of a typical weak Nino regime [not a surprise for either of us]. It will be interesting to see the ENSO vicissitudes of the coming year, as the subsurface presently "could" be indicative of an actual oceanic La Nina. However, as you know, the atmosphere will often behave in ways incongruous with the oceanic state. We'll have to see where we are post spring barrier.