February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well NYC did have the rare below zero low on Valentines Day.  We had other heavy snow events besides the big blockbuster though, one of those brought down a crane in the city.  It was JFK's 40 inch / 40 degree winter

Central Park had the 27.5 inches from the January 23 storm and 5.3 inches for the entire season other than the storm with a 32.8 total. Combine that with the above normal temps  in January and February, the warmest December ever exceeding the second warmest by 7 degrees, and the 4th warmest March ever, it still baffles me how anyone can call that a good winter. To each his own though.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Central Park had the 27.5 inches from the January 23 storm and 5.3 inches for the entire season other than the storm with a 32.8 total. Combine that with the above normal temps  in January and February, the warmest December ever exceeding the second warmest by 7 degrees, and the 4th warmest March ever, it still baffles me how anyone can call that a good winter. To each his own though.

it was 40-50 inches from Queens county on east across Long Island, I'd call it a B- winter but only because of the extreme warmth in December, aside from that it was a B+

Getting a 30 inch snowstorm here was amazing- I may never see that again.

[Nibor]

On 2/25/2020 at 5:56 PM, MJO812 said:

WNY keeps winning 

My family has a house in Chautauqua near Jamestown. The average yearly snowfall is 120 inches. Most of that usually comes from lake effect. 

[donsutherland1]

Colder air will arrive in tomorrow with winds gusting past 40 mph. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Winter 2019-2020 became the 11th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 26. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 7.8" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 70% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1928-29 with 13.8" seasonal snowfall.

Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 26. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was +16.04 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.550.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 5, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 25, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.736 (RMM). The February 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.850.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 98% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.2°.

Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

[doncat]

Another cloudy mild East wind April kinda day...47/43 temp split and 0.03" of rain.

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of February are averaging 36degs., or 2degs. BN.(used 47/33 for today)

Month to date is  +5.8[40.8].         February should end at  +5.0[40.3].

The first 14 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 46degs., maybe 7degs. AN, with no snow and just one winter like day near March 08----that is all.

44* here and breezy at 6am.       43* at 7am.        41* by 9am.        40* by 10am.      39* at 10:30am, but 41* at 11am.        43* by 4pm.        35* by 6:30pm.    32* by 9pm.

[bluewave]

This winter is another example of our climate becoming more subtropical. Single digit snowfall is typical for North Carolina. Average temperatures near 40 degrees are normal for Richmond, VA. The average July temperature last summer near 80 degrees is also common for the Richmond, VA area. Same goes for the record number of 75 degree dew points last few summers at places like JFK. Such a high number of days are common for that region also.

[ForestHillWx]

Snow showers and wind. 

[TJW014]

Got just under 1" of rain last night. All fell between midnight and 3 am. Had quite a bit of thunder as well.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This winter is another example of our climate becoming more subtropical. Single digit snowfall is typical for North Carolina. Average temperatures near 40 degrees are normal for Richmond, VA. The average July temperature last summer near 80 degrees is also common for the Richmond, VA area. Same goes for the record number of 75 degree dew points last few summers at places like JFK. Such a high number of days are common for that region also.

It's made central air conditioning somewhat essential around here as well.  Houses built in the 50's-70's around here often did not have it b/c it was not needed.   

[gravitylover]

59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's made central air conditioning somewhat essential around here as well.  Houses built in the 50's-70's around here often did not have it b/c it was not needed.   

Especially hillside/hilltop and ridgeline homes where they were more likely to have a breeze. We would have to live in our basement a few weeks every year if we didn't have central ac, it stays at or below 70 down there almost all the time especially if I block the only south facing window.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Especially hillside/hilltop and ridgeline homes where they were more likely to have a breeze. We would have to live in our basement a few weeks every year if we didn't have central ac, it stays at or below 70 down there almost all the time especially if I block the only south facing window.

yeah our basement is always a nice 65 in the summer

[PB-99]

Nothing better than having the mountain to yourself.

 

https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/pico-mountain-cam

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Nothing better than having the mountain to yourself.

 

https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/pico-mountain-cam

 

 

 

No snow in I95 corridor-people just don't go-backyard snow effect

[bluewave]

Pretty amazing temperature jump last 5 winters above 1981-2010 averages.

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	40.5	35.2	39.7	38.4
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.8	39.4
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.2
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

1981-2010...37.5..32.6..35.3.....35.1

....................+3.0..+2.6...+4.4.....+3.3

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/nycnormals.pdf

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pretty amazing temperature jump last 5 winters above 1981-2010 averages.

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	40.5	35.2	39.7	38.4
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.8	39.4
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.2
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

1981-2010...37.5..32.6..35.3.....35.1

....................+3.0..+2.6...+4.4.....+3.3

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/nycnormals.pdf

I imagine at some point we see another cold winter to balance some of this out but who knows when. 

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I imagine at some point we see another cold winter to balance some of this out but who knows when. 

We can’t even get a cold winter anymore without long duration extreme  high latitude blocking. The cold 09-10 and 10-11 winters required the record -AO /-NAO blocking. Our cold 13-14 and 14-15 winters were all about the record -EPO/+PNA blocking. The default pattern in 11-12, 12-13, 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, and 19-20 has been warm to record warm. 

[forkyfork]

the super nino pushed up the baseline

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can’t even get a cold winter anymore without long duration extreme  high latitude blocking. The cold 09-10 and 10-11 winters required the record -AO /-NAO blocking. Our cold 13-14 and 14-15 winters were all about the record -EPO/+PNA blocking. The default pattern in 11-12, 12-13, 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, and 19-20 has been warm to record warm. 

some speculation that the solar minimum could help with blocking although it did nothing for us this year if there is indeed any connection.

[MJO812]

I need to move  to the Tug Hill plateau. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I need to move  to the Tug Hill plateau. 

There's literally nothing there.    A couple small towns, but wow it would be boring compared to NYC other than the big snows.

[forkyfork]

i was there for the feb 2007 event. miles and miles of nothing

[rclab]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

There's literally nothing there.    A couple small towns, but wow it would be boring compared to NYC other than the big snows.

An undeniable reality point Brian but just maybe where Anthony is concerned the final words from a great Porgy and Bess song should hold sway;        “Cause the things that I prize like the stars in the sky are all free. Say I’ve got plenty of nothing and nothing is plenty for me. Got my girl, got my song got my ... ( Snow ) As always .....

[jm1220]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I need to move  to the Tug Hill plateau. 

If you’re okay with being a complete hermit, fine. 

[MJO812]

[Dan76]

Move to Mt Rainier

[donsutherland1]

Snow was falling this evening and the landscape was coated in a thick and thickening blanket of white. A blustery wind added to the chill.

That's if one were in the lake effect areas off Lakes Erie and Ontario and parts of northern New England. Through 6 pm, more than 6.0" snow had fallen in Caribou, surpassing the daily record of 6.0" set in 2008. In addition, Caribou had surpassed 100" seasonal snowfall for the 4th consecutive winter.

Back in the Middle Atlantic region, snowfall has been difficult to come by. The clock is now winding down on a February that has been defined by warmth and an near total absence of snowfall. Monthly snowfall totals through today include: Allentown: Trace; Baltimore: None; Bridgeport: Trace; Harrisburg: Trace; Islip: None; New York City-Central Park: Trace; New York City-JFK: None; New York City-LGA: None; Newark: Trace; Philadelphia: None; Washington, DC: Trace.

Colder air has now returned to the region. However, as has been the case throughout January and February, this latest round of cold will likely be short-lived. Much milder air will move into the region early next week.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was +15.90 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.969.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 6, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 26, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.379 (RMM). The February 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.734.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied near 100% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.1° tying February 2020 with February 1954 as the 7th warmest February on record.

Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

[NJwx85]

Probably going to approach 70 degrees at least once next week.

[ForestHillWx]

Woke up to find it briefly snowing with a dusting on all surfaces, including the road. 

2:30 am. Temp is 25 degrees. 

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of February are averaging 35degs., or 3degs. BN.

Month to date is  +5.6[40.7].          February should end at  +5.0[40.3].

The first 15 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 42degs.[35/49], or about 2degs. AN.       Output is snow less.    Last measurable snow was Jan. 18.

30* here at 6am.    32* by 8:30am.      34* by 10:30am.        38* by 1pm.       Topped out at 42* at 4:30pm.       38* by 9pm.       36* by 11pm.