snowman19 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Before the hype starts about the cold shot the long range model ensembles (GEFS GEPS EPS) are showing for the 1st week of March, don’t be fooled. As depicted, and if it’s even correct, it’s transient and temporary, in and out, just like the 2 cold shots we’re seeing now. It is not a full scale pattern flip and there is no high latitude blocking setting up. You can already see a garbage, mild longwave pattern quickly building right back in behind it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Low of 14 here, high only at 29 so far, might unseat Dec 19th (27°F/17°F) as the coldest day of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Not saying it’s right but the last CANSIPS run wanted to pop a big Aleutian ridge in March, which would fit with the Niña background you talk about. Also, check out the PDO, it’s gone strongly negative since January. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020020100&fh=1 This Niña background pattern hasn’t worked for us the last 2 winters when combined with a struggling El Niño. We did fine with snowfall when combined with an actual La Niña in 16-17 and 17-18. So maybe we need a stronger El Niño or return to official La Niña in future winters to bring the snowfall back. The WPAC warm pool into the IO produces the Niña-like state. It also leads to stronger and more frequent MJO phase 5-7 events for us. So it’s no surprise that the CIPS shows a strong ridge near the Aleutians in the means for March. It has been stuck in that zone north of Hawaii for the last 2 winters. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Two photos from this afternoon (temperature 29°). Ice left over from the receding tide and bubbles in a frozen pool of water. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 29/12 temp split today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 This morning was the coldest morning of winter 2019-2020. Both New York City and Philadelphia had minimum temperatures of 14°. Readings outside those cities were even colder. Low temperatures outside New York City and Philadelphia included: Allentown: 10°; Danbury: 6°; Poughkeepsie: 6°; Scranton: 5°; and, White Plains: 9°. Binghamton had a low temperature of -2°. In addition, New York City's high temperature of 30° was that city's lowest high temperature since December 19, 2019 when the high temperature was just 25°. Philadelphia recorded only its second high temperature of 32° or below this winter. Today's 32° high temperature was Philadelphia's lowest maximum temperature since December 19 when the high temperature was 29°. However, as has been the case since the second half of December, the cold will now quickly depart. Moreover, other than transient cold shots, one of which could during the second half of next week, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first three weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -21.95 today. The last time the SOI fell to -20.00 or below was December 26, 2019 when the SOI was -28.39. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.700. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 23, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 14, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.502 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.235. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 55% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Temp actually rising now, currently at 30 which is the high for the day so far. Might make it above freezing today after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 38degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +6.3[40.3]. Should be about +5.1[39.5] by the 24th. The remainder of February is averaging (0Z,GFS) 39.9degs., so February may end near +4.8[40.1]---a tie for 5th. Place. The (06Z,GFS) is lower at 38.2degs. for the remainder of February---we end at 39.2. Whoopee. All 3 models are snow less. 32* here at 6am. 34* by 9am. 42* by 3pm. Shot up to 47* by about 4:30pm. 43* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 14 degrees in NYC is the 4th warmest winter minimum temperature on record. ISP is 2nd warmest at 13 degrees. Albany comes in at 4th warmest and only the 8th time above 0. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 19 0 2 1931-1932 18 0 3 1974-1975 15 0 4 2019-2020 14 14 - 2016-2017 14 0 - 2005-2006 14 0 - 2000-2001 14 0 - 1997-1998 14 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 15 0 - 1997-1998 15 0 3 2019-2020 13 14 Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1931-1932 9 0 2 1936-1937 4 0 - 1889-1890 4 0 4 2019-2020 1 14 - 2016-2017 1 0 - 2005-2006 1 0 - 2001-2002 1 0 - 2000-2001 1 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 As delineated hitherto, I do not see any reason to abandon the window of opportunity between February 25th-early March. It will certainly provide the most propitious z500 structure of the entire meteorological winter to date [a low standard]; now, that does not necessarily imply any guarantees re snowfall, merely that probabilities will be quite a bit higher than previously. The high frequency intraseasonal forcing should disintegrate east of the dateline, and reorganize in the Eastern Hemisphere. Momentum in the N-HEM inauspicious as well as tropospheric receptivity to blocking still low, so I would not anticipate a negative NAM/NAO, however, the PNA/EPO domains should alter/ameliorate via the Pacific forcing for an ephemeral window. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: As delineated hitherto 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 As has happened on a regular basis during January and the first half of February, the cold that covered the Northeast during Friday and yesterday was short-lived. Milder air has again overspread the region. Much of the Middle Atlantic region saw high temperatures top out in the lower and middle 40s. A few readings at or above 50° occurred, as well. Another short period of cold is likely later this week. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. Winter 2019-2020 is the 7th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 16. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 3.8" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1931-32 with 8.0" seasonal snowfall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. Earlier today, in part due to the powerful north Atlantic storm that has contributed to the very strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), widespread record warmth prevailed in Europe. Daily records included: Amsterdam: 59°; Antwerp: 63°; Cherbourg, France: 57°; Deelen, Netherlands: 63°; Dusseldorf: 64°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 64°; Gilze-Rijen, Netherlands: 63°; Hamburg: 63° (tied monthly record); Kleine Brogel, Belgium: 64°; Koksijde, Belgium: 59°; Luxembourg: 61°; Paris: 64°; Rotterdam: 59°; Satenas, Sweden: 50°; Strasbourg, France: 68°; Volkel, Netherlands: 64°; Wiesbaden, Germany: 61°; and, Wunstorf, Germany: 64° (tied monthly record). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -18.20 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.169. That easily exceed the previous daily record of +3.114 from 1959. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 24, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 15, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.777 (RMM). The February 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.500. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 61% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN Month to date is +6.0[40.1]. Should be about +5.3[39.7] by the 25th. 41* here at 6am. 40* at 6:30am. 46* by Noon. 50* by 2pm. 52* by 4pm. The last 13 days of February are averaging (0Z,GFS) 40.2degs. February should end near +4.8[40.1] again, like yesterday, a tie for 5th Place. WINTER UPDATE: Starting Dec. 01> +4.1. Starting Dec. 22> +6.7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 This is only our 6th time with no measurable snowfall during the peak snowfall season so far. It’s also the first time that this has occurred since 2002 and 1998. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 16 Missing Count 1 1890-02-16 0.0 0 2 2020-02-16 T 0 - 2002-02-16 T 0 - 1998-02-16 T 0 - 1981-02-16 T 0 - 1968-02-16 T 0 - 1900-02-16 T 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The overnight model runs definitely weren’t as impressive with the -EPO as they were yesterday afternoon, they show a very flat ridge now. The pattern looks meh come early March. Might we get snow regardless? Possible, we got snow out of a meh pattern early last March but there is nothing at all on any guidance screaming east coast snowstorm, still +AO, +NAO, -PNA and a strong SPV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The overnight model runs definitely weren’t as impressive with the -EPO as they were yesterday afternoon, they show a very flat ridge now. The pattern looks meh come early March. Might we get snow regardless? Possible, we got snow out of a meh pattern early last March but there is nothing at all on any guidance screaming east coast snowstorm, still +AO, +NAO, -PNA and a strong SPV Models have been too aggressive with the -EPO long range all winter. So this is no big surprise. It looks like we may get a transient +PNA near the start of March before the ridge pulls back closer to the Aleutians. We had a decent -EPO at this time last year which extended into March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I will be curious to see if the MJO projections to phase 8 in March by some models continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 We will have to make due with a much weaker -EPO than we had near the end of Feb and start of Mar last year. The AO is also much more positive this year coming off the current record breaking period. Looks like a transient +PNA before the ridge pulls back near the Aleutians. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will have to make due with a much weaker -EPO than we had near the end of Feb and start of Mar last year. The AO is also much more positive this year coming off the current record breaking period. Looks like a transient +PNA before the ridge pulls back near the Aleutians. We can’t sustain a +PNA to save our lives, as soon as one pops up, the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down. The EPO and especially the NAO and AO don’t want to play ball either 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Question - how do shorter wavelengths going into March interact with forecasting teleconnections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We can’t sustain a +PNA to save our lives, as soon as one pops up, the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down. The EPO and especially the NAO and AO don’t want to play ball either It’s been a real challenge with this Niña background pattern. This is the first time since the early 2010’s that the +EPO was strong enough to drop the -PDO this much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We can’t sustain a +PNA to save our lives, as soon as one pops up, the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down. The EPO and especially the NAO and AO don’t want to play ball either Why is it so hard to get a positive pna? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why is it so hard to get a positive pna? The MJO in unfavorable phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Dec and Feb have been non winter months over the last 4 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 This says it all right here, almost March and still record strong, this is the last nail in the coffin for any hopes of a late, last minute, winter comeback: 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This says it all right here, almost March and still record strong, this is the last nail in the coffin for any hopes of a late, last minute, winter comeback: It's time to give it a rest and better luck next year (as far as snow is concerned). Next year by default can't get any worse, which is the only good news to come from this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 26 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Dec and Feb have been non winter months over the last 4 years. At least this year there were a few wintry storms and it's the only time I got below 0 (so far) this winter. At this point my frozen precip accumulations are higher than they were in 11/12 but that's not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's time to give it a rest and better luck next year (as far as snow is concerned). Next year by default can't get any worse, which is the only good news to come from this winter. Can't get any worse? I hope mother nature doesn't drink beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's time to give it a rest and better luck next year (as far as snow is concerned). Next year by default can't get any worse, which is the only good news to come from this winter. although unlikely, it can be worse next winter. We could be shutout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Another rainer 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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