February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[psv88]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Picked up a surprise 1 to 2 inches yday afternoon/evening here in Hawley PA and it’s snowing again

You at Woodloch?

[SnoSki14]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 I will continue to track but it doesnt look good. NAO, AO and EPO does not want to go favorable at all for the foreseeable future.  It's amazing how stubborn this pattern is.

At least it's helping the Arctic this season. Maybe that'll help us out in the future.

This year however looks toast and I'm 100% ready for warm spring-like weather. 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

 It was nothing like this 

 

It is much, much warmer now.

 

Emphasis on much.

 

I see 2 days with normal temps in the next 15 days. 

 

 

I believe he meant that timing of events. It most definitely is warmer than it had been in the 1980s. 

[the_other_guy]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe he meant that timing of events. It most definitely is warmer than it had been in the 1980s. 

Yes, but I feel we are getting a little lackadaisical on the fact that what is going on here. Nothing like this has occurred in this area since modern record keeping began in the late 1800s

 

I think that is important to emphasize.

 

While there was nothing inherently wrong with the original post, It gives fuel to some posters that try to brush all this off as a statistical anomaly...which it clearly isnt

 

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Yes, but I feel we are getting a little lackadaisical on the fact that what is going on here. Nothing like this has occurred in this area since modern record keeping began in the late 1800s

 

I think that is important to emphasize.

 

While there was nothing inherently wrong with the original post, It gives fuel to some posters that try to brush all this off as a statistical anomaly...which it clearly isnt

 

 

I agree with the emphasis on the nature of the rapid warming that has been taking place and continues to occur. That development needs to be considered in seasonal forecasting, etc.

[Brian5671]

The 80's had some incredible cold shots.  Alot of cold with bare ground back then as it was hard to get anything to line up with a storm (+NAO/AO pattern then)  We've seen none of that the past 2 years.  I did tell my kids the same thing this AM when they asked why it hasn't snowed much...I said, "welcome to my childhood"!  

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

You at Woodloch?

Yes sir

[doncat]

Low temp here yesterday  and today of 27°...still above normal.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

 It was nothing like this 

 

It is much, much warmer now.

 

Emphasis on much.

 

I see 2 days with normal temps in the next 15 days. 

 

 

There are hordes of tiny flies buzzing around my front yard.....this was inconceivable at this time of the year when I was a child.

[Cfa]

I wasn’t alive in the 80’s, but it sounded awful. I only have a clear memory of 2009 onwards (weather-wise), that was right around the time our snowfall amounts went haywire. My normal is abnormal.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Yes sir

 Nice spot. Took the family up there last year and it snowed the morning we arrived. Beautiful scenery. They do a terrific job with events, food is excellent, entertainment is top notch. Enjoy.

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

I wasn’t alive in the 80’s, but it sounded awful. Weather-wise, I only have a clear memory of 2009 onwards, that was right around the time our snowfall amounts started going haywire. My normal is abnormal.

how young are you 13?

[Cfa]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

how young are you 13?

Lol I’m twice that. I meant anything weather-related prior to 2009 is a bit hazy, unless it was very major.

I remember a blizzard in 2006, NYC schools closing for the first time (in my memory), but anything between that and the summer of 2009 is a blur.

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I wasn’t alive in the 80’s, but it sounded awful. I only have a clear memory of 2009 onwards (weather-wise), that was right around the time our snowfall amounts went haywire. My normal is abnormal.

Weather was quiet and boring. Not alot of heat.  Cold and dry winters. 2 or 3 memorable snowstorms not much severe. Hurricane Gloria in 85. That's it that's the decade in a nutshell

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Lol I’m twice that. I meant anything weather-related prior to 2009 is a bit hazy, unless it was very major.

I remember a blizzard in 2006, NYC schools closing for the first time (in my memory), but anything between that and the summer of 2009 is a blur.

Are you talking about Feb 12 2006 ? If so then the storm occured on a Saturday. 

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Weather was quiet and boring. Not alot of heat.  Cold and dry winters. 2 or 3 memorable snowstorms not much severe. Hurricane Gloria in 85. That's it that's the decade in a nutshell

And then the winter of 94 sailed in and people were like WTF? NYC doesn't get this cold, it doesn't snow this much.....make it stop! We were almost back to normal in 95 ( no snow, mild temps ) until Feb delivered a nice event. Then in 96 people were again aghast, 1-2 feet? Are they serious? I remember hitting the local Pathmark the day before, and it was like the zombie apocalypse was coming. And yet, none of us believed it would be that much snow, keep in mind a foot was considered gigantic....

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Are you talking about Feb 12 2006 ? If so then the storm occured on a Saturday. 

There was one in 2005 as well, though not as big, perhaps that's the one....

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rebounded into the lower and middle 40s across the region today. Prior to that, some areas in northwestern New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, and southeastern Pennsylvania received a light snowfall.

Milder conditions will likely continue through mid-week. Afterward, a short-lived push of cold air could occur during the second half of the coming week into the weekend. Unlike with the prior Friday-Saturday cold shot, modified Arctic air will be involved, so minimum temperatures could fall into the upper teens in New York City and lower teens and perhaps single digits outside the City during the height of the cold.

Afterward, warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the February 15-21 period will be warmer than normal overall.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first two weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +3.03 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That figure would surpass the +5.147 value reached on February 9, 1990 for the daily record. It is also the highest value since March 8, 2015 when the AO was +5.588.

Near or just after mid-month, the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. There remains some uncertainty concerning its amplitude and duration in Phase 6. Its amplitude and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February.

During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 16, but the upper stratosphere could warm toward mid-February. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February.

On February 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.625 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.584.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 56% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

[Allsnow]

Straight out of the 1980’s with this cold dry outbreak for next weekend. 

[Isotherm]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Straight out of the 1980’s with this cold dry outbreak for next weekend. 

 

 

For once, it appears the surface high pressure ridge crests with auspicious timing for near ideal/ideal radiational cooling Friday night. There may finally be a hard freeze in the single digits and teens.

 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

For once, it appears the surface high pressure ridge crests with auspicious timing for near ideal/ideal radiational cooling Friday night. There may finally be a hard freeze in the single digits and teens.

 

Going to be a shock to the system with how mild it has been. We also have a good snow pack north of our area into upstate Ny. This will prevent the air from modifying too much.

 

Great outlook from you this year Tom. It really nailed the overall idea for DJF. I hope we can pull off one plowable event (2+ on Pavement) in your window to start March. I really don’t see much to inspire confidence that we might get a event in February. Some signs that we Could enter p1/p2 to start March. Would line up well with your thoughts .

[Isotherm]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to be a shock to the system with how mild it has been. We also have a good snow pack north of our area into upstate Ny. This will prevent the air from modifying too much.

 

Great outlook from you this year Tom. It really nailed the overall idea for DJF. I hope we can pull off one plowable event (2+ on Pavement) in your window to start March. I really don’t see much to inspire confidence that we might get a event in February. Some signs that we Could enter p1/p2 to start March. Would line up well with your thoughts .

 

Thanks, Tim. I am happy re the outlook; and it would certainly be nice to see an areawide event prior to the end of the season. I still do believe there will be amelioration near the end of February into March, from hostile to more mediocre. I don't see any indications of a great pattern at this juncture, but all we would need is something serviceable to produce a plowable event in Feb 25-Mar 10, which is still favorable climatology. Post Mar 10 is when probabilities begin decreasing expeditiously. 

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Thanks, Tim. I am happy re the outlook; and it would certainly be nice to see an areawide event prior to the end of the season. I still do believe there will be amelioration near the end of February into March, from hostile to more mediocre. I don't see any indications of a great pattern at this juncture, but all we would need is something serviceable to produce a plowable event in Feb 25-Mar 10, which is still favorable climatology. Post Mar 10 is when probabilities begin decreasing expeditiously. 

Agree. Normally by March 15th it’s over for the metro outside a fluke event. I agree, (I believe you think the mjo will help) that we could see a better pac to start March. We would still have other issues but it would make the pattern more serviceable. 

[bluewave]

These brief Arctic shots within a warmer pattern have become common in recent years. Figures that it originates in Alaska which has been one of the few Northern Hemisphere  regions to see any extended cold this winter.

 

 

[doncat]

Euro really backed off the cold shot for end of week...went from mid 20's on Friday to low 40's, and lowest Temps from low teens to low 20's by Sat. am. Other models do still show the colder outlook however.

[wdrag]

nw NJ/ne PA... failed forecast expectations for early today high terrain with warm air several hours sooner and minuscule early morning qpf. Couldn't have been more than a Trace of snow here in southern Wantage NJ.

Early yesterday was a few hours of what winter used to be like. No snow melt, fluffy 20-25F snow. Was quite something for its 1/2" deposit.  wd/529A

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs., or 3.5degs. AN.

44* here at 6am, drizzle.

Month to date is  +8.7[42.4].       Should be about +5.5[40.3] by the 18th.

The next 17 days are averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN.(0Z, GFS) with 3" of snow on 13th again.      EURO is snowless.    CMC is snowless.       The 06Z, GFS is averaging 37degs., or 2degs. AN on the next 17days with 1" of snow---this time near the 21st.

 

[SnoSki14]

57 minutes ago, doncat said:

Euro really backed off the cold shot for end of week...went from mid 20's on Friday to low 40's, and lowest Temps from low teens to low 20's by Sat. am. Other models do still show the colder outlook however.

Not surprised.

[MJO812]

45 with moderate rain here in Brooklyn 

[donsutherland1]

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is +6.342. That surpassed the daily record of +4.492 for February 10, which was set in 1990. It would also surpass the all-time record high figure of +5.911, which was set on February 26, 1990. Daily records go back to 1950.