Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I like our chances up here with that look, Close to the source, And a gradient look, Just keep it active, Some of these systems should workout or it would seriously be real bad luck if none of them did.

Yeah that’s my view.  Take our chances with SWFE pattern and gradient nearby.  May be messy at times but should be net gain in those events.  And yeah, would just be bad luck if it fails.  

Of course we’d feel better about that type of pattern than the southern crew, and the Mid-Atlantic to NYC crew might just be out of it unless we get some wholesale changes.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I like our chances up here with that look, Close to the source, And a gradient look, Just keep it active, Some of these systems should workout or it would seriously be real bad luck if none of them did.

I don’t like but it’s expected at this juncture so I’ll just take whatever scraps are leftover...gather them into one pile, and marinate in it until spring.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s my view.  Take our chances with SWFE pattern and gradient nearby.  May be messy at times but should be net gain in those events.  And yeah, would just be bad luck if it fails.  

Of course we’d feel better about that type of pattern than the southern crew, and the Mid-Atlantic to NYC crew might just be out of it unless we get some wholesale changes.

It reminds me to an extent of the 2007-08 season but with better results up to now that season, We have been rather unlucky so far as most of these events ended up as mixed ones or we lost the pack that we had here which wasn't much to begin with so it didn't take much of a torch and cutter pattern to wash it away.

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t like but it’s expected at this juncture so I’ll just take whatever scraps are leftover...gather them into one pile, and marinate in it until spring.

It has sucked really for most on here, We missed the December storms that got some in SNE and have had one double digit storm that goes back to 12/31, I'm 7" below normal as of right now on the season and it looks like we are going to have to nickel and dime our way to close to normal but i'm skeptical.

[shanemacdonald23]

This could be worst winter in history up here in Halifax if this keeps up .. sickening hope for a big flop later this month but might be for the record books for the wrong reason for lot of posters on here . 

Pattern looks more like apps runners and glc not much nor Easter type of systems unfortunately. 

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You fukking idiots....did you look at the date on those weeklies posted?  It’s this week!  2/3-10.

Um. Yeah.  And also noticed the play button.  

[78Blizzard]

Ukie looks nice for Sunday.  Gfs was onto something then, too.  We'll take what we can get at this point.

[blizzard24]

i know weather people dont ever use the weekly's at all in their forecast.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snowy Sunday gone Monday with 40’s all next week

[512high]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snowy Sunday gone Monday with 40’s all next week

Yup unless it makes a comeback, gone.....each day getting longer, what a disaster

[MJO812]

What a weenie run the 6z gfs was.

[Ogmios]

9 hours ago, shanemacdonald23 said:

This could be worst winter in history up here in Halifax if this keeps up .. sickening hope for a big flop later this month but might be for the record books for the wrong reason for lot of posters on here . 

Pattern looks more like apps runners and glc not much nor Easter type of systems unfortunately. 

You do not need Nor' Easter type systems to pump out snow for the maritimes, what we need is for the teleconnections to be less ridiculous then what they are trending towards rate now.  I believe we can do well in a slight AO positive environment with a slightly negative NAO and even a PNA that holds in negative territory that does not go below 100 points on a constant basis.  In fact last year though it does not seem like it we actual did quite well last year coming out on the cold side of average last year, and if not for the majority of those storms tracking as far north as they did it would have been a very cold winter.  The main culprit is the Arctic lockup that allows for the opportunistic oceans to run the show.  In January despite finishing below average in snowfall, it still was not all that bad considering and despite ending above average which believe it or not was not to the extreme end of the warmth.  In fact there was a three week window except that 14 degree nightmare where winter was winter and we went through a descent snow period up here in the northern valley.  Despite what the Kentville records shown where 20 was believable in the first storm of the year and they down played - yes I am saying it for the 2nd storm as it was closer and more believable to estimate the snowfall in the 15-20 cm range.  All in all true snowfall was a little over 50 cm in the Kentville area; though they only record snow cover (which in my valuation is a true injustice of keeping real records) in January which is still below average, plus we had 3-5 cm of ice pellets in that ice storm which puts us into three true winter storms that did feature any real winter pattern.

This year we are above normal, the trend is our enemy. and mother nature is doing what she wants to do keeping us mild all the time.  And duly noted for some Nova Scotians this is the third straight year of a winter that has been less then stellar  under performing.  But we have the advantage compared to SNE in terms of the Latitude, and I have the advantage over Halifax being inland with the Bay of Fundy if that snow engine can be turned on, primarily I notice under a cold WSW wind direction that can create squalls which was the weather that saved the northern valley from that same fate in the periodically infamous snowless winter of 2018/19, plus March which we had three snow storms while CB got all rain until April.

So I do not think we need as much of a flop to save any form of winter as much as SNE needs it, we are far enough north that we could be punished with a runner or two which can stay as snow if that SE Ridge weakens.  I would even argue it is inevitable that there snow in the pipeline for Nova Scotia, and based on the EURO predictions of the next 6 weeks it looks as though it may not be s ridiculous concept to not discount any possibility that it will not happen.  Even if all we get is  15-20 cm snowfall event.  And as for the next winter if it turns out to be forecast to be in Eastern QBO where we are in the unfavorable Western QBO hopefully the west gets a wall to wall winter in that ridge as they are due for a very warm winter out there. Unfortunately there is talk of La Nina being a possible factor, perhaps pay back next year where the east that should be warm in a La Nina gets the favorable storm tracks, as god only knows,

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Ogmios said:

You do not need Nor' Easter type systems to pump out snow for the maritimes, what we need is for the teleconnections to be less ridiculous then what they are trending towards rate now.  I believe we can do well in a slight AO positive environment with a slightly negative NAO and even a PNA that holds in negative territory that does not go below 100 points on a constant basis.  In fact last year though it does not seem like it we actual did quite well last year coming out on the cold side of average last year, and if not for the majority of those storms tracking as far north as they did it would have been a very cold winter.  The main culprit is the Arctic lockup that allows for the opportunistic oceans to run the show.  In January despite finishing below average in snowfall, it still was not all that bad considering and despite ending above average which believe it or not was not to the extreme end of the warmth.  In fact there was a three week window except that 14 degree nightmare where winter was winter and we went through a descent snow period up here in the northern valley.  Despite what the Kentville records shown where 20 was believable in the first storm of the year and they down played - yes I am saying it for the 2nd storm as it was closer and more believable to estimate the snowfall in the 15-20 cm range.  All in all true snowfall was a little over 50 cm in the Kentville area; though they only record snow cover (which in my valuation is a true injustice of keeping real records) in January which is still below average, plus we had 3-5 cm of ice pellets in that ice storm which puts us into three true winter storms that did feature any real winter pattern.

This year we are above normal, the trend is our enemy. and mother nature is doing what she wants to do keeping us mild all the time.  And duly noted for some Nova Scotians this is the third straight year of a winter that has been less then stellar  under performing.  But we have the advantage compared to SNE in terms of the Latitude, and I have the advantage over Halifax being inland with the Bay of Fundy if that snow engine can be turned on, primarily I notice under a cold WSW wind direction that can create squalls which was the weather that saved the northern valley from that same fate in the periodically infamous snowless winter of 2018/19, plus March which we had three snow storms while CB got all rain until April.

So I do not think we need as much of a flop to save any form of winter as much as SNE needs it, we are far enough north that we could be punished with a runner or two which can stay as snow if that SE Ridge weakens.  I would even argue it is inevitable that there snow in the pipeline for Nova Scotia, and based on the EURO predictions of the next 6 weeks it looks as though it may not be s ridiculous concept to not discount any possibility that it will not happen.  Even if all we get is  15-20 cm snowfall event.  And as for the next winter if it turns out to be forecast to be in Eastern QBO where we are in the unfavorable Western QBO hopefully the west gets a wall to wall winter in that ridge as they are due for a very warm winter out there. Unfortunately there is talk of La Nina being a possible factor, perhaps pay back next year where the east that should be warm in a La Nina gets the favorable storm tracks, as god only knows,

I hit the third paragraph and would have bet my life that this was @Typhoon Tip lol

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, dryslot said:

It has sucked really for most on here, We missed the December storms that got some in SNE and have had one double digit storm that goes back to 12/31, I'm 7" below normal as of right now on the season and it looks like we are going to have to nickel and dime our way to close to normal but i'm skeptical.

Also down by 7-8" here, and season's biggest is 7.0".  46 of my 47 previous Maine winters have had at least one snowfall greater than that, and while late week may close the deficit a bit I don't think it's a threat to that 7" peak.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hit the third paragraph and would have bet my life that this was @Typhoon Tip lol

I was going to say Tips alter ego....lol

[JC-CT]

19 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

what winter?

Earth's axial tilt as it orbits the sun is independent of your opinion of sensible weather outcomes in your backyard.

Warm, snowless winters are still winters.

[Typhoon Tip]

Man that 06z GFS ( yes yes ...you've discussed it already - eat me! ) was loaded up with winter storm chances.. 

It just gets difficult to visualize any of that actually succeeding in taking place .. .what with this Stockholm Syndrome of failure and defeatism; yeah, we just get so use to that, you grow accustomed to it and acceptance creeps in.   We can't help it.  

It's human. 

This winter has had a "spooky action at a distance" quality to it, no question...as though something metaphysical were guiding things to perfect elegance in 'how' it fails too - like rubbing it in. It's like you smirk to your self at model release, ' how is the next run going to seemingly deliberately erode this look ' 

Kidding, but this has been the worst winter I can ever recall for verification scoring in the D6-9 range.    Now ...obviously and normally, one would not exactly expect banners in meritorious over modeling performance in that range, but this year really has been particularly egregious.  Performing - and this is the homage to that hokey stuff abv - specifically poorly wrt to anything cryo in nature.  If the words frozen or freezing are any part of the potentials envelope, said envelope is nearly emptied of it's content at some temporal switch ...usually about D4 ..5... with shimmering alacrity - poof. They should just run the models to D4.5 ..and then the next chart just reads, whatever would have illustrated here, it will be better than what you are going to get.   

Here's the thing... I'm noticing the teleconnectors have been bad for 45 straight days...on average. There may have been frets and starts in there where things verified, but the vaster percetage of times...these mass fields have been better examples of what NOT to do if we want a winter.  So, maybe there's problem in the operational guidance to 'overtly winterize' the looks, so to speak...and it's in fact our focus that is distracting us from the bigger picture, said focus being on the operational runs and drooling over ever opportunity for modeling cinema that emerges down the pike.  The operational runs are trying to make it Feb 1 ( say ), but then this other stuff that the cackling rabble and "lucid" rubes want to make fun, like Noah's water as the global ship is sinking ..blah blah, it continues along it's way to usurp it's dominating influence one those latter ranges as they become more coherent in time... 

Simply put, there are reasons for these system correcting NW that is sort of more in place (I'm thinking..) than even I have been seriously considering enough. They are two fold related to just pattern orientation ( teleconnectors ), and these other synergistic factors combined.  

Therefore, the jailer's jokes in that Stockholm prison are becoming more soothing.  Anyone else ready for baseball, bike rides, the beach and babes ? 

This op ed oughta get us a historic blizzard cooked up!  haha Usually how it works.  

[NYCweatherNOW]

We’re going to get snow soon I promise you. I would even watch the baroclinic gradient after the second wave on Thursday. It could push the gradient south enough that the next wave at least ends as snow Friday night with the low pressure trending way south of us. Also this weekend that bowling bowl is looking promising that could drop 3-6 if everything goes well. Winter is far from over, though it has been feeling like that the last 48 hours or so. Gfs also has it very active next week and on. 
id like to point out that this weekends storm is sandwiched between the 2 high pressures so the ceiling can’t be higher than a 3-6 maybe 4-8 tops but most likely lower than that because of shredding from both highs pushing dry air as the low does tries to develop.

[dryslot]

Nice parade of over runners the next 10 days on the goofus.

[512high]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man that 06z GFS ( yes yes ...you've discussed it already - eat me! ) was loaded up with winter storm chances.. 

It just gets difficult to visualize any of that actually succeeding in taking place .. .what with this Stockholm Syndrome of failure and defeatism; yeah, we just get so use to that, you grow accustomed to it and acceptance creeps in.   We can't help it.  

It's human. 

This winter has had a "spooky action at a distance" quality to it, no question...as though something metaphysical were guiding things to perfect elegance in 'how' it fails too - like rubbing it in. It's like you smirk to your self at model release, ' how is the next run going to seemingly deliberately erode this look ' 

Kidding, but this has been the worst winter I can ever recall for verification scoring in the D6-9 range.    Now ...obviously and normally, one would not exactly expect banners in meritorious over modeling performance in that range, but this year really has been particularly egregious.  Performing - and this is the homage to that hokey stuff abv - specifically poorly wrt to anything cryo in nature.  If the words frozen or freezing are any part of the potentials envelope, said envelope is nearly emptied of it's content at some temporal switch ...usually about D4 ..5... with shimmering alacrity - poof. They should just run the models to D4.5 ..and then the next chart just reads, whatever would have illustrated here, it will be better than what you are going to get.   

Here's the thing... I'm noticing the teleconnectors have been bad for 45 straight days...on average. There may have been frets and starts in there where things verified, but the vaster percetage of times...these mass fields have been better examples of what NOT to do if we want a winter.  So, maybe there's problem in the operational guidance to 'overtly winterize' the looks, so to speak...and it's in fact our focus that is distracting us from the bigger picture, said focus being on the operational runs and drooling over ever opportunity for modeling cinema that emerges down the pike.  The operational runs are trying to make it Feb 1 ( say ), but then this other stuff that the cackling rabble and "lucid" rubes want to make fun, like Noah's water as the global ship is sinking ..blah blah, it continues along it's way to usurp it's dominating influence one those latter ranges as they become more coherent in time... 

Simply put, there are reasons for these system correcting NW that is sort of more in place (I'm thinking..) than even I have been seriously considering enough. They are two fold related to just pattern orientation ( teleconnectors ), and these other synergistic factors combined.  

Therefore, the jailer's jokes in that Stockholm prison are becoming more soothing.  Anyone else ready for baseball, bike rides, the beach and babes ? 

This op ed oughta get us a historic blizzard cooked up!  haha Usually how it works.  

nice post tip

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 512high said:

nice post tip

heh..well, thx -hopefully we know that's tongue-in-cheek commiseration .. .

tainted humor ftl -

[Spanks45]

and just like that the Sunday "storm" vanished....Might be time to pack it up for us south of Hartford, maybe closer to 84, just doesn't look like much for us down here. I'm sure some scraps here and there, but nothing to get very excited about from this point on.

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's the thing... I'm noticing the teleconnectors have been bad for 45 straight days...on average. There may have been frets and starts in there where things verified, but the vaster percetage of times...these mass fields have been better examples of what NOT to do if we want a winter.  So, maybe there's problem in the operational guidance to 'overtly winterize' the looks, so to speak...and it's in fact our focus that is distracting us from the bigger picture, said focus being on the operational runs and drooling over ever opportunity for modeling cinema that emerges down the pike.  The operational runs are trying to make it Feb 1 ( say ), but then this other stuff that the cackling rabble and "lucid" rubes want to make fun, like Noah's water as the global ship is sinking ..blah blah, it continues along it's way to usurp it's dominating influence one those latter ranges as they become more coherent in time... 

The bolded is spot on, yet it gets ignored for some reason when models show wintry weather at day 6/7.   It’s not that the models have been that bad, it’s like burying your head in sand WRT the larger picture and think “this one has a chance!”  

Its like in a summer pattern where we know the teleconnections aren’t there for big heat yet the Day 7-10 keeps pumping 90-100F into SNE.  Then about day 4 it becomes 85-90F at the torch spots and 80-85F everywhere else and those 103s barely become 89F.  

I mean we just had a January average +7 across the board.  And February isn’t looking much colder.  That’s a hostile pattern for snow.  

[ORH_wxman]

34 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

and just like that the Sunday "storm" vanished....Might be time to pack it up for us south of Hartford, maybe closer to 84, just doesn't look like much for us down here. I'm sure some scraps here and there, but nothing to get very excited about from this point on.

Sunday has looked like trash for about 2-3 runs now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

and just like that the Sunday "storm" vanished....Might be time to pack it up for us south of Hartford, maybe closer to 84, just doesn't look like much for us down here. I'm sure some scraps here and there, but nothing to get very excited about from this point on.

We’ve told our viewers to get their spring preparations underway. Sure could be a rogue chance here and there but a sustained period of winter is not likely 

[CoastalWx]

EPS says to keep en eye out, but I admit...my gut says probably misses SE.

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ve told our viewers to get their spring preparations underway. Sure could be a rogue chance here and there but a sustained period of winter is not likely 

I mean we'll find most years post ... ~ Feb 10..  the slope of season recovery starts -

2015 is about the greatest polar exception as is physically plausible, and it happened..  but by and large, Feb 10+ is about big bombs with intervening sun eating snow banks back... OR, no bombs, and the sun eating snow banks back. 

Either way, the pack retention curve isn't enthusiast's friend.  The solar nadir ends on the 10th and streets start steaming when the snow ends prior to noon and the sun comes out. 

I always thought of Feb as kind of the antithesis of Augie ... same deal though.  You can be in the thick of the seasonal weeds, but there are subtleties in either that betray the faltering ...   It matters because June 15 won't be very different than August 15.. .but August 15 can be very different than Sept 21...particularly if we're frosting early.  Feb can be powder 'cane on the 20th but be weird 80 F on March 15 like three weeks later.  You're not going to get that between Dec 15 and Feb 15 

Oh wait ... not supposed to anyway -

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS says to keep en eye out, but I admit...my gut says probably misses SE.

That high nosing in Saturday will shunt everything SE, you can almost guarantee it. I would assume that depending on what the Friday situation does will determine where that shortwave goes....The recent runs with Friday being colder and further SE have also led to the Sunday storm being SE

[weathafella]

If only we could get NAO this year.  The pacific has recovered but the pig lives in Greenland.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

If only we could get NAO this year.  The pacific has recovered but the pig lives in Greenland.

 

It's a fricken mushroom cloud over Baffin Island...nevermind a mere pig.

IF the Atlantic was even just mildly hostile, this might actually be a damned good pattern coming up. But with the death vortex over there, it's making a good pacific into kind of a crapshoot here. Hoping we get lucky....the other thing that could happen is move that vortex southeast a little and it actually becomes favorable again....that's what happened in December 2007....we took advantage of an obscenely +NAO pattenr because the vortex was so huge and far enough southeast that it actually crushed the heights over southenr Quebec and into N Maine and Nova Scotia.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If only we could get NAO this year.  The pacific has recovered but the pig lives in Greenland.

Oh that's still in the cards for March

Prolly be an east-baster just for the impudent implicit idea that -NAO means good for us.. but -NAO of some kind that doesn't snow but f-up the entire April-May part of MLB is a slam dunk -

But beyond sarcasm and grousing, there are larger conceptual reasons to look for that. Hopefully they fail