NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I noticed whenever we need a trend for a storm to come back to us from sea we don’t get it, it usually shunts even further out to sea, but when we have a storm that’s too inland it never goes to benchmark track. Is there any studies down on this? Or maybe it’s just our luck? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Stay on the shitty winter course, fade that one as well. One thing is certain, we are not getting close to our average this year...I still think we luck out with 1 or 2 wintry systems down this way, it's not like there isn't any cold air around or a lack of precip. Today will be 50-55 with some sun which will feel great.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Stay on the shitty winter course, fade that one as well. I have this irrational fear that we could just have 6-8 weeks of high temps in the 40's and rain every 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Stay on the shitty winter course, fade that one as well. Yup... heavy fade. These “events” this week were always a non starter down here... probably just moving that line north now. Good thing we had that rogue event the first few days of December otherwise we’d be looking at all time rat status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I noticed whenever we need a trend for a storm to come back to us from sea we don’t get it, it usually shunts even further out to sea, but when we have a storm that’s too inland it never goes to benchmark track. Is there any studies down on this? Or maybe it’s just our luck? A storm can miss by 100mi and whiff ots but we can warm sector in a cutter with a thousand mile margin for error. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yup... heavy fade. These “events” this week were always a non starter down here... probably just moving that line north now. Good thing we had that rogue event the first few days of December otherwise we’d be looking at all time rat status Getting one little 3-4” storm in 60 days in the heart of winter is a rat for me. We’ll need a major comeback begin to take shape very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 20 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I noticed whenever we need a trend for a storm to come back to us from sea we don’t get it, it usually shunts even further out to sea, but when we have a storm that’s too inland it never goes to benchmark track. Is there any studies down on this? Or maybe it’s just our luck? Negative confirmation bias. Everyone remembers the many ways a storm can fail, but we easily forget the ones that trend in our favor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I have this irrational fear that we could just have 6-8 weeks of high temps in the 40's and rain every 3 days. With below heights in the SW and above heights in the SE...I’m exactly pumped for the start of Feb either. We’ll need luck to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Negative confirmation bias. Everyone remembers the many ways a storm can fail, but we easily forget the ones that trend in our favor. It’s true. People do this confirmation bias w everything . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s true. People do this confirmation bias w everything . We used to get snowstorms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 This is ...and I’m not being “negative “ lol a cutter pattern . Ya some storms will meet the “press” but the long wave pattern FAVORS storms cutting . Need some luck , and luck is not on a hot streak ill take just one more head fake today to Cold this upcoming week to get me happily thru the day , then inevitably we can torch on modeling haha. I am at the bargaining stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Feel like it will be tough to avoid a milder solution. That's a deep trough in the Midwest. I know you have meso low potential and what not, but when I see the 500 look...that would support mild air aloft at the very least. Yeah I'm a little spooked by the overnight runs my self. I could see the whole scale baroclinic axis up and bump NW at say 48 or 60 hours lead, ...leaving chicken counters holding empty shells, going, 'Whaaa' Problem is ... it's happened on more than a single occasion this season. There's been failures to relay colder solutions in general, into short range from the mid ranges. Something about this particular year's 'emergence' phenomenon ( if you will..); it has been persistently against colder snowier icer winter going across that ~ temporal boundary; it seems to be happening most frequently at around that time range ...somewhere between 48 and 72 hours. This is a candidate for that imho. Not saying it will.. I do still believe that the fast nature of the flow should stretch things, and that stretching should actually ease off the 500 mb observations you are making - which are clad btw, but I think there is correct-ability toward flatter, which actually helps in this scenario as we've been discussing. So, we inched toward a colder look for several cycles recently, and that fits. But the 00z - imho - actually ticked back NW slightly ... almost just by a less coherent panache of the whole thing, and that's a direct homage to season tendency discussed above like it's bursting with desire to bend over this social media patronage for another sore-butting... and got so anxious it exposed its inevitable intent to do so. Mmm... I'm still too scarred by the former sort of "synergistic" tendency to f-up a winter solutions to let that 'hint' just go unrecognized myself. So we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Another “sore butting” on the way. John are bums are a mess lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We used to get snowstorms. Make winters great again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Another “sore butting” on the way. John are bums are a mess lol Haven’t sat down in weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Haven’t sat down in weeks. Haaaa hahaha... Actually, I'd say we've been having polyp procedures since 2015 myself... but heh - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Maybe we see some less amped, weaker solutions at 12z but getting to where we need to see that on multiple globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Maybe we see some less amped, weaker solutions at 12z but getting to where we need to see that on multiple globals. There's a 'needle thread' aspect to this ordeal.. It's got narrow margins for error whenever a system is sort of pulled out and biased in the length coordinate. Think of it ( metaphorical ) as meridian flows like circle systems, and progressive pancake rifle bullet flows like lines. EDIT: I guess the last several post should have been/move to the event's thread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: With below heights in the SW and above heights in the SE...I’m exactly pumped for the start of Feb either. We’ll need luck to produce. This season is the type that we get a couple runs of a decent solution...but it just can't hold. Every single system has done this to us this year. Unfortunately there are seasons where this happens,we've seen them before-(especially in the 80's, but there have been a few others too). I don't believe it's going to improve much...the signs are there and have been there for a while now. But on the other side of the coin it's SNE too, and you'd think we'd get One "Warning Event" in there during Astronomical Winter...even Most Ratters have one-2012 did in Jan. So I do think we will get one, but that could be it. And if we don't get one, it could be an All Time RAT. Heading up North very soon for some fun in the snow....having winter hobbies definitely lessens the sting a lot when we don't get any snow at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 You gotta get out of the Bronx pal. March of 18 was fabo in SNE. So was March of 17. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: You gotta get out of the Bronx pal. March of 18 was fabo in SNE. So was March of 17. I was gonna say....I had over 90 inches in 2017-2018....lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I'm a little spooked by the overnight runs my self. I could see the whole scale baroclinic axis up and bump NW at say 48 or 60 hours lead, ...leaving chicken counters holding empty shells, going, 'Whaaa' Problem is ... it's happened on more than a single occasion this season. There's been failures to relay colder solutions in general, into short range from the mid ranges. Something about this particular year's 'emergence' phenomenon ( if you will..); it has been persistently against colder snowier icer winter going across that ~ temporal boundary; it seems to be happening most frequently at around that time range ...somewhere between 48 and 72 hours. This is a candidate for that imho. Not saying it will.. I do still believe that the fast nature of the flow should stretch things, and that stretching should actually ease off the 500 mb observations you are making - which are clad btw, but I think there is correct-ability toward flatter, which actually helps in this scenario as we've been discussing. So, we inched toward a colder look for several cycles recently, and that fits. But the 00z - imho - actually ticked back NW slightly ... almost just by a less coherent panache of the whole thing, and that's a direct homage to season tendency discussed above like it's bursting with desire to bend over this social media patronage for another sore-butting... and got so anxious it exposed its inevitable intent to do so. Mmm... I'm still too scarred by the former sort of "synergistic" tendency to f-up a winter solutions to let that 'hint' just go unrecognized myself. So we'll see. 2-5"....some sleet, glaze inland, then some rain. Call it a day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2-5"....some sleet, glaze inland, then some rain. Call it a day.. Yes sir..this sums it up perfectly. And that Fantasy storm next Sunday/Monday on the Euro...sell that Hard in this winter especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes sir..this sums it up perfectly. And that Fantasy storm next Sunday/Monday on the Euro...sell that Hard in this winter especially. I never looked at that even once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 12 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: Big change on the NAM from 18z. Colder look. 11 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: What a difference between the Nam and the IKON again at 0z. Wth is going on? 11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Two crappy models trying to figure out the timing and magnitude of the ejecting energy. The good models are having a hard enough time with it... 11 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: 24 hrs from now if the Nam is showing a massive hit, the detractors will be humping it, lol. Would you like to comment on the torched 12z nam now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Warm front phail here, stuck in solid overcast and 40F. I was hoping for a sunny day to go skiing, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Warm front phail here, stuck in solid overcast and 40F. I was hoping for a sunny day to go skiing, oh well. getting warm here, sun and clouds 47.0 atm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 What a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Glad I stopped tracking this on Saturday. Day 6 threat has some legs, but hopefully it doesn't turn into Lt Dan like every other threat this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Beautiful day out there. Get out and enjoy it! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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