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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Does this have the chance to be a copious qpf producer? 3 days of icing/ overrunning etc.. or just light Qpf?

This has a chance to produce a lot of qpf. Remains to be seen if it actually does but there’s gulf moisture in this. 

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It’s back to being positively tilted as Will showed in the images. Don’t have an intensity fetish here for this one. You want weaker and more strung out for a colder solution. Something stronger will guarantee flooding the region with warmth. I’m sure we’ll see solutions varying around here. Naturally you favor more interior and NNE, but many areas may start as snow. 

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22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, but it’s better because then it takes a flatter less amplified route, which is Colder for SNE.

Yea, if we had blocking, then amplification would be great....but this is winter 2020.. so we don't.

This is a prime example of how Tippy's mutant Hadley cell attributed gradient saturation can augment snow potential...it goes both ways.

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I think initially this isn’t a progressive look as the trough digs. You have a Hudson Bay trough and a rather deep latitudinal trough extending from it. So that will try to promote a more amped solution. However the ridge starts to buckle out west and multiple s/w troughs enter the picture to help keep this a massive stem winder. I still feel more could go wrong vs right in this setup, but the real lack of phasing helps.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

with this set up not only is an intense system not gonna bring big snow totals but over running and weaker system*(S) can bring plenty of QPF for quite the event

Yeah. You don’t need a 970 low for tons of precip if you have gulf moisture overrunning. 

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At this point I would take 1 to 2 inches to heavy rain to pad the "stats". However not even sure about that

Decent airmass ahead of it so it certainly could happen. Who knows, maybe this goes weaker and East too. Regardless, this week was never really a lock. It’s afterwards. 

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