Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I’d like to see more discussion on potential ice amounts, duration, can the HP trend colder/deeper etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’d like to see more discussion on potential ice amounts, duration, can the HP trend colder/deeper etc. It’s Sunday. Too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Thread is totally irrational this morning. Modeling didn’t even change that much for this coming week unless you were buying the OP GFS yesterday that showed a lot of snow. Even then it’s a slight change in timing of energy ejection that could produce a lot more snow. Half of these posts should just be flat out deleted. Making binary calls on an unstable setup at 4+ days out. Lol EURO and GFS both changed quite a bit for us southeners. Instead of looking at several inches of snow sleet then freezing rain with a muted warm up. Now its maybe a coating of snow sleet Thursday AM while the rest of the week has highs of 50+ approaching 60 Thursday afternoon and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s Sunday. Too early. Right ... random guess until the system's framework is more coherent - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Lol EURO and GFS both changed quite a bit for us southeners. Instead of looking at several inches of snow sleet then freezing rain with a muted warm up. Now its maybe a coating of snow sleet Thursday AM while the rest of the week has highs of 50+ approaching 60 Thursday afternoon and Friday. The 6z eps looked ok even for you to start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right ... random guess until the system's framework is more coherent - Kevin wants exact details so he can tell the Tolland soccer moms what to expect. When it doesn’t happen and they call him out, he takes it out on this board. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The 6z eps looked ok even for you to start. Yes, it's much colder than the op, we hope.. If it's going to torch I'd rather have all sun and no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 What the hell is going on in here? Geezus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin wants exact details so he can tell the Tolland soccer moms what to expect. When it doesn’t happen and they call him out, he takes it out on this board. Lol, but hey ... we should give him props for setting that up. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Lol EURO and GFS both changed quite a bit for us southeners. Instead of looking at several inches of snow sleet then freezing rain with a muted warm up. Now its maybe a coating of snow sleet Thursday AM while the rest of the week has highs of 50+ approaching 60 Thursday afternoon and Friday. Sure...but you were on the line to begin with. Small changes in ejection of energy will lead to a noticeable sensible wx change. It could easily subtly shift back and then everyone will claim it was a massive model change. If you are only looking through the lens of sensible wx, that’s true...and I guess most are. But from a modeling standpoint it isn’t a big shift. It’s why so many of is were saying how the solutions would probably be pretty volatile with just small changes. Bottom line....keeping the southern energy very consolidated and robust is going to equal warmer solutions while shearing out just a bit could produce much colder solutions. Theres also the timing of the first wave which effects the 2nd one and where the boundary sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s Sunday. Too early. It’s not too early to determine if there’s going to be ice. It’s 3 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not too early to determine if there’s going to be ice. It’s 3 days away It’s a Thursday/Thursday night event. There could be a weaker wave ahead of it but the real meat isn’t until d4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Sure...but you were on the line to begin with. Small changes in ejection of energy will lead to a noticeable sensible wx change. It could easily subtly shift back and then everyone will claim it was a massive model change. If you are only looking through the lens of sensible wx, that’s true...and I guess most are. But from a modeling standpoint it isn’t a big shift. It’s why so many of is were saying how the solutions would probably be pretty volatile with just small changes. Bottom line....keeping the southern energy very consolidated and robust is going to equal warmer solutions while shearing out just a bit could produce much colder solutions. Theres also the timing of the first wave which effects the 2nd one and where the boundary sets up. Yes, I guess that's why everyone is so dejected. The smallest shift upstairs causes a massive change in sensible weather for everyone up to CNE.. With the tenor of the season of getting burned, people just expect it to trend warmer. Still plenty of time left, lets see what today brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s a Thursday/Thursday night event. There could be a weaker wave ahead of it but the real meat isn’t until d4+ I thought this was a 3 day long duration deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Lol EURO and GFS both changed quite a bit for us southeners. Instead of looking at several inches of snow sleet then freezing rain with a muted warm up. Now its maybe a coating of snow sleet Thursday AM while the rest of the week has highs of 50+ approaching 60 Thursday afternoon and Friday. There's probably some interpretation and significance -related subjectivity to these analysis ...haha, to put it nicely. Will's point's true in the sense that the changes are minor wrt to total structure ( imho ) ... but, subtleties have big sensible impacts in this scenario. We really will have a pretty large, lead-side air mass bust potential.. .because we are transporting unusually warm air masses for 'typical winter' intrusions this year, but have these cold highs occasionally timed through S-SE Canada, where it can be 50 to 60 F colder by comparison. Remember that gig several weeks ago, when it was 64 in eastern CT, and like 29 in Nashua? It's been a fascinating year for gradient saturation... Anyway, imho, if the Euro bumps a little more NW again on this run, and the high in eastern Canada peels away six hour faster, ...those changes are whole-scale subtle, but become a pretty big sensible change in CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes, I guess that's why everyone is so dejected. The smallest shift upstairs causes a massive change in sensible weather for everyone up to CNE.. With the tenor of the season of getting burned, people just expect it to trend warmer. Still plenty of time left, lets see what today brings. Eh...I don’t have a lot of sympathy for those getting invested in the colder solution when it was 120+ hours out....maybe I’m just giving tough love to everyone, lol. I’ll get invested if it’s cold inside 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I thought this was a 3 day long duration deal The GFS carried suggestion for a longer duration event ...and others mentioned it - but the context of 'merely remarking over the model's depiction' might have gotten stripped away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh...I don’t have a lot of sympathy for those getting invested in the colder solution when it was 120+ hours out....maybe I’m just giving tough love to everyone, lol. I’ll get invested if it’s cold inside 84 hours. It definitely was more of a thread the needle solution down here. After the EURO tease for a few runs and especially on the 06z run showing a potent nor'easter earlier this winter ONLY 60-72 hours out only to completely take it away at 12z there on out, I'm not getting invested until like day 2 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man we’ve seen anger before on here, but there is so much on here this morning from several posters. Frankly it’s scaring me a bit. That's why I have mostly stayed away this week people are too emotional about something they cannot control. If we go from a cancel winter to a cancel spring, which is certainly possible, it will be like a psych ward forum in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the southern stream is digging a little more and staying more coherent. 12z yesterday was a little more sheared. We’ve seen these subtle change flip from run to run but it ends up mattering for the snow (moreso than the ice) I'll bet it ends up more sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That's why I have mostly stayed away this week people are too emotional about something they cannot control. If we go from a cancel winter to a cancel spring, which is certainly possible, it will be like a psych ward forum in here. It already is, No reason to get invested in any model run right now, I actually just looked at the models for the first tome in two days, Looks like we will be waiting a couple more to take them serious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: It already is, No reason to get invested in any model run right now, I actually just looked at the models for the first tome in two days, Looks like we will be waiting a couple more to take them serious. I haven't even looked closely yet...just a cursory glance at H5 on Friday night. I won't look again until tonight or tomorrow to begin to hammer out a detailed First Call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't even looked closely yet...just a cursory glance at H5 on Friday night. I won't look again until tonight or tomorrow to begin to hammer out a detailed First Call. Just looking briefly this morning I can see why now there are a lot of emotional swings lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll bet it ends up more sheared. That has been the tenor of the season. I’m not investing much effort into this partly for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That's why I have mostly stayed away this week people are too emotional about something they cannot control. If we go from a cancel winter to a cancel spring, which is certainly possible, it will be like a psych ward forum in here. It’s gotten really bad from some of these posters. Even some mets. For the sake and possibly the saving of this subforum from shutting down , we need an icestorm or snowstorm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 so.. what happened? let me guess models flip? they probably will flip again today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s gotten really bad from some of these posters. Even some mets. For the sake and possibly the saving of this subforum from shutting down , we need an icestorm or snowstorm I feel like you may have CTE from sleet pounding your head in 07 and 08. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like you may have CTE from sleet pounding your head in 07 and 08. I mean how often have we seen mets threaten and lash out at Wxfella? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Spanks45 said: Besides the SWFE a couple weeks ago, every "snow" opportunity has faded in the 3-5 day range and never came back....unbelievable, time to wish for a permanent ridge to develop and just end this....have another coating this morning that will melt within the hour, the past 2 days have added a whopping 0.1" of snow to the totals. Last February I had 4.6" for the month, we might not be able to beat that this year. What I am amazed about is how bad our snow totals are. 2011 2012 the pattern was far worse but I had more snow to this point than this year! Only 97/98 and 01/02 worse. I wonder if March will save us again as it did last year. We can't go out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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