ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Euro likes the Miller B threat too on 2/8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro likes the Miller B threat too on 2/8-9. There some signs that we totally flip the winter script this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: There some signs that we totally flip the winter script this week. Yeah it’s a fine line and I understand staying pessimistic too considering what’s happened the past 6-7 weeks...but if things break right, there could actually be some decent snow totals in the first 10 days of the month. The chances are there. We’ll probably know a lot more about our fate by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 besides that one cutter, which could also flatten out overtime...That was a wintry Euro run, with the ridging beginning to build at day 10 into Alaska.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: besides that one cutter, which could also flatten out overtime...That was a wintry Euro run, with the ridging beginning to build at day 10 into Alaska.... Eps and gefs are similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: besides that one cutter, which could also flatten out overtime...That was a wintry Euro run, with the ridging beginning to build at day 10 into Alaska.... And I’m not really convinced the interior gets above freezing until FROPA on that thing. That has CAD/mesolow written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 55 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: high pressure flattens everything out too much, then moves out just in time for the 3rd wave to blast through the great lakes.... Terrible take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 51 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Sweet. How many weeks/months until the first major cities outside of China are put on lockdown? Should make for an interesting Spring. Buy stonks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 51 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Kevin will be quarantined at the Blue. Lol, if he goes there, are we sure he's not actually patient zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s a fine line and I understand staying pessimistic too considering what’s happened the past 6-7 weeks...but if things break right, there could actually be some decent snow totals in the first 10 days of the month. The chances are there. We’ll probably know a lot more about our fate by Monday. I said it a few days ago...I'll bet we end up on the right side of the gradient this month...then we wait to see if the pole and Atlantic can become more favorable later in the month and into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Terrible take Thanks, it was more in jest with regards to the past few weeks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Pacific strong and SE ridge more at bay past few runs of eps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Where’s Jerry?! Big muthafukkas posted! BED, BVY, BOS = 4+8 LWM = 6+8 ORH = 8+8 Hours 132-156 from the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Where’s Jerry?! Big muthafukkas posted! BED, BVY, BOS = 4+8 LWM = 6+8 ORH = 8+8 Hours 132-156 from the GFS. Good man! Literally I forgot about the muthufukkas....been so infrequent...lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: And I’m not really convinced the interior gets above freezing until FROPA on that thing. That has CAD/mesolow written all over it Agreed ... not with that pressure pattern east of the cordillera... The local geo forcing/fluid mechanical restoring will barrier jet the hell out of that 920 mb level if that layout verifies and probably ... that's an over smoothing anyway. It's next to impossible to warm intrusion SNE's interior when there +PP over NE Maine and antecedent drain already established. It's almost fluid mechanically impossible ..The only way to over come that would be to have a 70 kt 875 mb level WCB fire hose...which happened in late Jan 1994 but this isn't that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Everyone's seen the GFS and it's been going on for several cycles. It's hard to tell if the Euro''s camp is on board, but... 2 days periodicity on flat wave winter storm ejections is a repeating theme across said cycles. The problem is - what's new - that fast/progressive flow is buck-shot on timing and exact impact regions where tend to be narrowed because of the pancake/flat nature of open wave cyclone types. Which enters questions on whether these entities in the stream are real even - but we'll cross that bridge. It's better for modeling cinema and keeping ennui down to actually have something to wonder about though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 We’re having some driveway work (expanding and paving). Would mean leaving cars on street (thankfully private way mitigating town overnight street parking ban). Told the guy we reserve to right to reschedule considering no driveway use before Thursday at the earliest. We’ll see what tomorrow’s modeling looks like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Ukmet's has a whopper BUF bomb ... But that guidance definitely has never completely sans the meridian bias at D6 anyway as far I've seen so we'll see. That solution bucks the flat progressive idea though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ukmet's has a whopper BUF bomb ... But that guidance definitely has never completely sans the meridian bias at D6 anyway as far I've seen so we'll see. That solution bucks the flat progressive idea though - Welcome to 4 hours ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: We’re having some driveway work (expanding and paving). Would mean leaving cars on street (thankfully private way mitigating town overnight street parking ban). Told the guy we reserve to right to reschedule considering no driveway use before Thursday at the earliest. We’ll see what tomorrow’s modeling looks like.. Im actually surprised asphalt plants are even open this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, 512high said: Im actually surprised asphalt plants are even open this time of year! The guy says winter is actually a good time to do it. I should check it out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: The guy says winter is actually a good time to do it. I should check it out.... I don't want to tie this thread up on asphalt, but our city had roads done up till late November and due to the binder work etc they asphalt company uses certain additives for cold weather to make sure it will cure etc. my two cents......back to weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Yeah the MOS #s are pretty ridiculous. Very surprised they are chucking 8s even for southern CT. Heres the 12Z run #s BDL 8+8 BDR 4+6 DXR 6+8 GON 1+4 HVN 4+6 HFD 6+8 IJD 4+8 MMK 4+8 OXC 6+8 Code: 0=0-T 1=T-2 2=2-4 4=4-6 6=6-8 8=8+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 GFS even colder than 12z for wave 2 initially. Though not sure if it ends up warmer for wave 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 39 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Yeah the MOS #s are pretty ridiculous. Very surprised they are chucking 8s even for southern CT. Heres the 12Z run #s BDL 8+8 BDR 4+6 DXR 6+8 GON 1+4 HVN 4+6 HFD 6+8 IJD 4+8 MMK 4+8 OXC 6+8 Code: 0=0-T 1=T-2 2=2-4 4=4-6 6=6-8 8=8+ This is really directed at you bc i see weatherfella and other posting them all the time, but aren't these just like a printout of what a clown map of the GFS would show . i.e toilet paper at this lead time. I guess it shows potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: GFS even colder than 12z for wave 2 initially. Though not sure if it ends up warmer for wave 3 It's not colder for 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: It's not colder for 2 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 people may be calling 3 number 2 and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 It’s colder 18z ————————————————-—————————————-———— 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: This is really directed at you bc i see weatherfella and other posting them all the time, but aren't these just like a printout of what a clown map of the GFS would show . i.e toilet paper at this lead time. I guess it shows potential lol. I am not endorsing or supporting use MOS at this range. In fact, personally, i dont use it at all. I just saw what Jerry said and checked them out. I guess you can look at it as potential, i just found it interesting so i posted them. As far as MOS or Model Output Statstics go, they are not just gridded data of the direct OP run. They use specific airport sites past climo to massage and smooth out the output from that particular run. It is another a 'tool' for forecasters to use in determining sensible wx. However, some use it as a shortcut or cheat sheet and explicit use MOS for a forecast. In theory its supposed to be more realistic for a given site than just the pure model output itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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