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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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Just now, weathafella said:

There some signs that we totally flip the winter script this week.

Yeah it’s a fine line and I understand staying pessimistic too considering what’s happened the past 6-7 weeks...but if things break right, there could actually be some decent snow totals in the first 10 days of the month. The chances are there. 

We’ll probably know a lot more about our fate by Monday. 

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

besides that one cutter, which could also flatten out overtime...That was a wintry Euro run, with the ridging beginning to build at day 10 into Alaska....

And I’m not really convinced the interior gets above freezing until FROPA on that thing. That has CAD/mesolow written all over it  

 

5244F717-2835-43F2-B187-48278D8B8878.png

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s a fine line and I understand staying pessimistic too considering what’s happened the past 6-7 weeks...but if things break right, there could actually be some decent snow totals in the first 10 days of the month. The chances are there. 

We’ll probably know a lot more about our fate by Monday. 

I said it a few days ago...I'll bet we end up on the right side of the gradient this month...then we wait to see if the pole and Atlantic can become more favorable later in the month and into March.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

And I’m not really convinced the interior gets above freezing until FROPA on that thing. That has CAD/mesolow written all over it  

 

 

Agreed ... not with that pressure pattern east of the cordillera... The local geo forcing/fluid mechanical restoring will barrier jet the hell out of that 920 mb level if that layout verifies and probably ... that's an over smoothing anyway. 

It's next to impossible to warm intrusion SNE's interior when there +PP over NE Maine and antecedent drain already established. It's almost fluid mechanically impossible ..The only way to over come that would be to have a 70 kt 875 mb level WCB fire hose...which happened in late Jan 1994 but this isn't that.

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Everyone's seen the GFS and it's been going on for several cycles.  It's hard to tell if the Euro''s camp is on board, but... 2 days periodicity on flat wave winter storm ejections is a repeating theme across said cycles.  The problem is - what's new - that fast/progressive flow is buck-shot on timing and exact impact regions where tend to be narrowed because of the pancake/flat nature of open wave cyclone types. Which enters questions on whether these entities in the stream are real even - but we'll cross that bridge. It's better for modeling cinema and keeping ennui down to actually have something to wonder about though -

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We’re having some driveway work (expanding and paving).  Would mean leaving cars on street (thankfully private way mitigating town overnight street parking ban).  Told the guy we reserve to right to reschedule considering no driveway use before Thursday at the earliest.  We’ll see what tomorrow’s modeling looks like..

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21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We’re having some driveway work (expanding and paving).  Would mean leaving cars on street (thankfully private way mitigating town overnight street parking ban).  Told the guy we reserve to right to reschedule considering no driveway use before Thursday at the earliest.  We’ll see what tomorrow’s modeling looks like..

Im actually surprised asphalt plants are even open this time of year!

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16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The guy says winter is actually a good time to do it.  I should check it out....

I don't want to tie this thread up on asphalt, but our city had roads done up till late November and due to the binder work etc they asphalt company uses certain additives for cold weather to make sure it will cure etc. my two cents......back to weather

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39 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah the MOS #s are pretty ridiculous. Very surprised they are chucking 8s even for southern CT.

Heres the 12Z run #s

BDL 8+8

BDR 4+6

DXR 6+8

GON 1+4

HVN 4+6

HFD 6+8

IJD 4+8

MMK 4+8

OXC 6+8

Code: 0=0-T  1=T-2  2=2-4  4=4-6  6=6-8  8=8+

This is really directed at you bc i see weatherfella and other posting them all the time, but aren't these just like a printout of what a clown map of the GFS would show . i.e toilet paper at this lead time. I guess it shows potential

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is really directed at you bc i see weatherfella and other posting them all the time, but aren't these just like a printout of what a clown map of the GFS would show . i.e toilet paper at this lead time. I guess it shows potential

lol. I am not endorsing or supporting use MOS at this range. In fact, personally, i dont use it at all. I just saw what Jerry said and checked them out. I guess you can look at it as potential, i just found it interesting so i posted them.

As far as MOS or Model Output Statstics go, they are not just gridded data of the direct OP run. They use specific airport sites past climo to massage and smooth out the output from that particular run. It is another a 'tool' for forecasters to use in determining sensible wx. However, some use it as a shortcut or cheat sheet and explicit use MOS for a forecast. In theory its supposed to be more realistic for a given site than just the pure model output itself.

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