Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

[TalcottWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'd expect nothing there....check back in a few days to see if it has changed. The late week setup could be snowier too....but no sense in getting hopes up 7 days out.

I would actually log off, but I enjoy weenies wallowing in misery.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

No one should ever lock a seasonal forecast. While folks like Raymond put a lot of time and research into it...it’s still an educated guess of sort. Some seasons will be relatively forecasted pretty well and others will not. So many variables including CC (sorry Ginx) muck it up. I appreciate having the info available though.

[Great Snow 1717]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

LR forecasting is more accurate than it was 1-2 decades ago....but it's still very difficult.

I agree.

[CoastalWx]

LR probably is more accurate, but man the twitter met clowns are throwing so much garbage out there....and the coveted ones. Good grief. Every year it's a new thing. This year it's the effing polar vortex and how that is ruling the world I guess. 

[WinterWolf]

All good points...

 

But there is such a little sample size when it comes to climate.  Climate has been changing for thousands of years..Tens of thousands.  We've been keeping records for just over a hundred lol.  It's so hard to say what the deal is...except that climate is always changing over time. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

LR probably is more accurate, but man the twitter met clowns are throwing so much garbage out there....and the coveted ones. Good grief. Every year it's a new thing. This year it's the effing polar vortex and how that is ruling the world I guess. 

 

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No one should ever lock a seasonal forecast. While folks like Raymond put a lot of time and research into it...it’s still an educated guess of sort. Some seasons will be relatively forecasted pretty well and others will not. So many variables including CC (sorry Ginx) muck it up. I appreciate having the info available though.

I see two aspects to long-range forecasting. 

1) I could be completely wrong here but I think one of the big drivers and demands for long-range forecasting is the energy industry. 

2) Long-range forecasting driven by "weenies" who just want to know how much snow they'll get the upcoming winter. 

While there are some excellent attempts at long-range forecasts that is available for anyone to see (for example Ray and isotherm (Tom) come to mind) most of what is available or what people do is just completely driven by the desire to want to forecast for cold and snow. I would be willing to wager that long-range forecasts presented to energy companies are a completely different tune...and probably way more accurate then what you would find floating on twitter...and that's b/c of what is driven to construct the outlook. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

I see two aspects to long-range forecasting. 

1) I could be completely wrong here but I think one of the big drivers and demands for long-range forecasting is the energy industry. 

2) Long-range forecasting driven by "weenies" who just want to know how much snow they'll get the upcoming winter. 

While there are some excellent attempts at long-range forecasts that is available for anyone to see (for example Ray and isotherm (Tom) come to mind) most of what is available or what people do is just completely driven by the desire to want to forecast for cold and snow. I would be willing to wager that long-range forecasts presented to energy companies are a completely different tune...and probably way more accurate then what you would find floating on twitter...and that's b/c of what is driven to construct the outlook. 

Honestly Ray, isotherm, and hell even Kevin probably aren't any worse than our better LR mets out there. What people who do LR need to do, is if their forecast is going down in flames, bail as fast as possible. That helps a lot. If you go down with the ship, it's bad. Also, as much flack as the CPC forecasts get, they have been doing better than many LR vendors. It's to the point now where I'm not sure how much longer the LR industry will need mets anymore. Models are good and we are warming. Go warm and you'll win more often than not. We still can provide value. For instance when we see guidance predict a massive ridge in AK...we know it will be cold over the central and western US. I've seen models show AN srfc temps. We know that is bullshit. So that is an example of value from the met.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly Ray, isotherm, and hell even Kevin probably aren't any worse than our better LR mets out there. What people who do LR need to do, is if their forecast is going down in flames, bail as fast as possible. That helps a lot. If you go down with the ship, it's bad. Also, as much flack as the CPC forecasts get, they have been doing better than many LR vendors. It's to the point now where I'm not sure how much longer the LR industry will need mets anymore. Models are good and we are warming. Go warm and you'll win more often than not. We still can provide value. For instance when we see guidance predict a massive ridge in AK...we know it will be cold over the central and western US. I've seen models show AN srfc temps. We know that is bullshit. So that is an example of value from the met.

Going warm has worked pretty well for the east coast...but you'd prob get your ass handed to you if you defaulted warm in the plains/lakes the past decade-plus. Really since the '07-'08 winter which seemed to shift to a colder regime up there after all those torches in the N plains from 1997-2006....east coast has dealt with a SE ridge.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tuesday/Wednesday will be too far north for most of us....but late week is interesting. Could be an ice setup. 

 

I'm 50/50 on those two days... 

Yes, as modeled

No per climo

Yes, the HC/southern heights wall and seasonal trends

...I just don't no what to weight more in the above list... but I know those are all valid concerns.   Turning to the ensemble means is less helpful to me, because pretty much all season they have been 'sloshing' anyway, and this pancaking of gradient open wave shit requires a pretty finite scaled correctness to get 31.5 vs 40 vs 60 right. 

I will say after having digested all guidance and so forth...the Euro appears to be conserving too much southern stream trough mechanics out there toward D7 .. post ejection from the west. As has been proven time and time, over time again ...this season, and is theoretically proper, when we are dealing with consummate positive geopotential heights in the deep SW/S/SE ...regardless of the cause, southern trough ejections more typically have substantive losses/get absorbed/sheared out ...  Usually, their vestigial momentum still have enough that we get more pearled out low responses and heightened baroclinic leafing as a general rule - and so that is where I am inclined to lean, rather than the Euro rather impressive near coastal cyclo bomb there at D8 ...  Ha!  D8 Euro storm - who woulda thunk.  I wonder, the Euro's correction scheming may not be as useful in a situation that makes singular entity potency less likely.  fascinating.. 

The other suspicion over the Euro is that as that trough ejection happens, regardless ..., it's western ridge lags pretty far west. That's make the total L/W's length, ridge to trough couplet, a bit unrealistic looking to me - fast flow or not...that's pushing it. 

Anyway, if we correct toward more shearing, than a longer duration overrunning would be the more likely fall-back scenario.   

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Going warm has worked pretty well for the east coast...but you'd prob get your ass handed to you if you defaulted warm in the plains/lakes the past decade-plus. Really since the '07-'08 winter which seemed to shift to a colder regime up there after all those torches in the N plains from 1997-2006....east coast has dealt with a SE ridge.

 

Go warm in the sense of evaluating the pattern and with 30 yr normals, of course. I mean if we know the PV is kissing International Falls, that may be an example to take the under obviously.  Last Fall everyone was all about low solar (which research shows it may not be smoking gun like many thought it was), and then it became strat warming and the PV making for an ice box US winter. Now it's on pace for a record warm one. Of course when Alaska is so cold we know it will torch...but we have a long long way to go. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly Ray, isotherm, and hell even Kevin probably aren't any worse than our better LR mets out there. What people who do LR need to do, is if their forecast is going down in flames, bail as fast as possible. That helps a lot. If you go down with the ship, it's bad. Also, as much flack as the CPC forecasts get, they have been doing better than many LR vendors. It's to the point now where I'm not sure how much longer the LR industry will need mets anymore. Models are good and we are warming. Go warm and you'll win more often than not. We still can provide value. For instance when we see guidance predict a massive ridge in AK...we know it will be cold over the central and western US. I've seen models show AN srfc temps. We know that is bullshit. So that is an example of value from the met.

That's a great point about the long-range industry and the future. The long-range seasonal models are good...and good enough to provide value to those that need it. 

But like you said...there may still be value from mets. Heck...Will's example above even sorta shows that. In this time of warming you can sort of see which areas perhaps may be more prone to colder weather as opposed to warmer weather...perhaps models won't pick up on that but if that's something human value can add there will still be somewhat of a demand. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Are you very familiar with the Trans-Nino Index? There is something about interpreting it that I am confused with. Per my understanding, the TNI is a measure of SST gradient between the eastern portion of the equatorial Tropical Pacific (Nino Region 1.2) and central portion of the equatorial Tropical Pacific (Nino region 4). When the TNI is positive that indicates the SST's are colder than average in the central portion of the tropical Pacific and warmer than average east of that (though not sure how that can be the case during an EL Nino event).

anyways...to try and further understand this concept I just looked at some weak EL Nino winter's and took the average of the DJF TNI values...and plotted SSTA's for a few of the positive TNI's and negative TNI's:

My take from this (at least for weak EL Nino events) is a negative TNI during a weak EL nino indicates warmest anomalies closer to the dateline whereas a positive TNI has the warmest anomalies off the coast of South America

M<y point from all of this really is to dig more into looking at ENSO events beyond just strength but whether they're east/west/central based...though how the evolution transpires is probably even more important. 

 

Mm... and are you very familiar with the T 'N' A index ? 

that particular indicator predates all others of modern technology, and is usually a very diametrical measure, with some regions being exceptionally warm, while unfairly, ..others being very very cool.  Seldom does that index ever show much of a zero order, 'STD' 

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

All good points...

 

But there is such a little sample size when it comes to climate.  Climate has been changing for thousands of years..Tens of thousands.  We've been keeping records for just over a hundred lol.  It's so hard to say what the deal is...except that climate is always changing over time. 

 

Ahh yes... the undying mantra that also is used to protect denier rationality bubbles from the reality outside said bubble... 

Unfortunately, 'climate changing for thousands of years' -vs- hundreds, as a means to undermine the veracity of the 100 years of change is a false logic.  

I mean it really is simply, false.   It's like you've been holding a 10 lb rock for two weeks, and someone adds another couple lbs to that load, for two minutes, and because the other was two weeks, it has more weight.  It's just dumb beyond belief, and huge ballasts of population, and even those responsible for information, have it wrong.  

Humans are not above being "lost in the weeds" - 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

LR forecasting is more accurate than it was 1-2 decades ago....but it's still very difficult.

From a seasonal perspective, Is that like saying a hamburger from McDonald’s is “healthier” than other fast food places, or is it a big difference in end results

 

seems like LR forecasting is like a puzzle with 100 pieces, decades ago we could put together about 10, now maybe 50 ..but the end result is still poor on average  

 

and given the complexity...we may never  have a handle on more than 60

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go warm in the sense of evaluating the pattern and with 30 yr normals, of course. I mean if we know the PV is kissing International Falls, that may be an example to take the under obviously.  Last Fall everyone was all about low solar (which research shows it may not be smoking gun like many thought it was), and then it became strat warming and the PV making for an ice box US winter. Now it's on pace for a record warm one. Of course when Alaska is so cold we know it will torch...but we have a long long way to go. 

One of our biggest limitations is I don't think we have a very accurate ability to forecast the north pacific...it's better than the north atlantic, but still pretty tough. Remember all the cold N plains forecasts before 2011-2012 too? Not many forecasted an AK pig that year.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... and are you very familiar with the T 'N' A index ? 

that particular indicator predates all others of modern technology, and is usually a very diametrical measure, with some regions being exceptionally warm, while unfairly, ..others being very very cool.  Seldom does that index ever show much of a zero order, 'STD' 

After Scott's response it occurred to me that perhaps this index doesn't have the value it once did when it was created? Though I thought it was created after the ONI? but all these measures of ENSO...just may not be applicable anymore...at least enough to compare periods. 

The new climo period is when...next year? It is going to be extremely intriguing to see how numbers and average change...and by how much. I suspect we may see some drastic changes which should and hopefully raise major eyebrows. 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly Ray, isotherm, and hell even Kevin probably aren't any worse than our better LR mets out there. What people who do LR need to do, is if their forecast is going down in flames, bail as fast as possible. That helps a lot. If you go down with the ship, it's bad. Also, as much flack as the CPC forecasts get, they have been doing better than many LR vendors. It's to the point now where I'm not sure how much longer the LR industry will need mets anymore. Models are good and we are warming. Go warm and you'll win more often than not. We still can provide value. For instance when we see guidance predict a massive ridge in AK...we know it will be cold over the central and western US. I've seen models show AN srfc temps. We know that is bullshit. So that is an example of value from the met.

Right right ... 

CPC's take:  GW is real... base line is thus above average.  case closed

everyone else...? denial, even in best intents and purposes of seemingly rational objective consideration, they still bias micro reasons into keeping their winters in tact. Everyone else is just full of shit.

in a way, CPC indirectly exposes the truth of a warm CC - just look at their scoring...  

haha ( i'm being snarky here but hey...there's prollly a modicum of truth to this ) 

[Ginx snewx]

Who called for record cold in AK this year or the midwest last year. Sorry you can't predict the LR winter months future with or without warm oceans.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One of our biggest limitations is I don't think we have a very accurate ability to forecast the north pacific...it's better than the north atlantic, but still pretty tough. Remember all the cold N plains forecasts before 2011-2012 too? Not many forecasted an AK pig that year.

I also remember when the MJO was pushing into phase 8 and everyone finally expected the cold......except it went into Europe.    

 

But oye vey, some of the crap pimped out on social media led by Judah is unreal. I do think more and more of our traditional analogs for ENSO or other oceanic indices may not mean what they used to. There is some value still...but you almost have to think of caveats to those each time you use them.

[ORH_wxman]

CPC was awful last year...they literally might have gotten their anomalies backwards....they had a good forecast in 2017-2018 though.

Here's their past two seasons versus verification

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CPC was awful last year...they literally might have gotten their anomalies backwards....they had a good forecast in 2017-2018 though.

Here's their past two seasons versus verification

 

 

Yea total BS about CPC being any better than anyone else. 

[weathafella]

I discovered Kent Hadley is dead.  Not sure what it means...

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea total BS about CPC being any better than anyone else. 

Just go back and look. For all the bashing they get, I challenge anyone else to step up and be better. Look at this year. In November they had equal chances in the Mid west and nrn Plains with a warm west and east coast. Most vendors had a very cold forecast where the HDDs matter. The CPC forecast will fail in the west, but they probably overall will be better than most. 

The point of this discussion is to show the voodoo indices we all look at don't always work. More recently, I feel like the skill in our typical indices we use for seasonal forecast just don't work as well for whatever reason.  I see many LR vendors pound their chest, only to have the traders bail on their winter forecast. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just go back and look. For all the bashing they get, I challenge anyone else to step up and be better. Look at this year. In November they had equal chances in the Mid west and nrn Plains with a warm west and east coast. Most vendors had a very cold forecast where the HDDs matter. The CPC forecast will fail in the west, but they probably overall will be better than most. 

The point of this discussion is to show the voodoo indices we all look at don't always work. More recently, I feel like the skill in our typical indices we use for seasonal forecast just don't work as well for whatever reason.  I see many LR vendors pound their chest, only to have the traders bail on their winter forecast. 

I have followed CPC winter forecasts,  Will showed just one example,  they are no better than many. No one has it figured out yet. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just go back and look. For all the bashing they get, I challenge anyone else to step up and be better. Look at this year. In November they had equal chances in the Mid west and nrn Plains with a warm west and east coast. Most vendors had a very cold forecast where the HDDs matter. The CPC forecast will fail in the west, but they probably overall will be better than most. 

The point of this discussion is to show the voodoo indices we all look at don't always work. More recently, I feel like the skill in our typical indices we use for seasonal forecast just don't work as well for whatever reason.  I see many LR vendors pound their chest, only to have the traders bail on their winter forecast. 

I can never understand how long range seasonal forecasters are so cocky.  Even amateurs with seasonal forecasts can come off at times as overly pushy to make you believe they were correct.  But maybe you need to do that to try and prove to folks part of what you did was right?  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I have followed CPC winter forecasts,  Will showed just one example,  they are no better than many. No one has it figured out yet. 

They are just fine for all the bashing they get. I find it amusing. We all roll our eyes at the probability forecasts, but given warm base state of everything and the voodoo indices out there, they are right there with the rest of the vendors. It's a tough business.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I can never understand how long range seasonal forecasters are so cocky.  Even amateurs with seasonal forecasts can come off at times as overly pushy to make you believe they were correct.  But maybe you need to do that to try and prove to folks part of what you did was right?  

100%

[dryslot]

LR forecasting is pretty simple......

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I can never understand how long range seasonal forecasters are so cocky.  Even amateurs with seasonal forecasts can come off at times as overly pushy to make you believe they were correct.  But maybe you need to do that to try and prove to folks part of what you did was right?  

And that's what I love...to see those guys fall flat. I'll tell you exactly why, because so much money is involved. For a long time, long range forecast IMO was viewed as a premier part of meteorology. If you could forecast the season from a temp and precip point of view, you were revered. After many years, I saw how difficult this was. There are few who are passionate about this and who are very good at explaining stuff. Mike  Ventrice actually loves explaining his work. It may not always be right, but he's one of the few who aren't cocky and actually like to explain their work. 

I feel like LR forecasting still is a great aspect of meteorology, but the field is changing. Decision support and customized forecasts for your audience means more and more. As models improve it will make it tough for all mets, but when you hear traders say they only use the EC guidance...that doesn't make LR mets feel all giddy inside. They aren't providing a lot more value than that model already is. 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I pretty much take the dartboard approach too...I have followed LR forecasts for a long time, and I love reading them and appreciate the innovation that has occurred in them.....but we still have a LONG ways to go.