RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: I think it would depend on the run... do you only take 1 run and 7 day totals or do you do a running blend with 4 runs per day? I do think the ensemble snow maps are pretty solid on the whole for 7-day chunks...but they don’t have those wild swings of the Ops and are essentially an ensemble QPF map. He was referring to the gfs, I think, so if we took the average of the 4x day 7 op runs and compare to actual snowfall...it would easily illustrate why we call them clown maps. If we took the cmc, probably worse lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: His chances are not our chances. Moose Fart for the win. His chances are my chances, And we will gift wrap the moose patties and send them south......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said: OT but anybody know how much snow KNYC, KPHL, KBAL, KDCA and KIAD have this season? I know it's lower than BOS and of course ORH but just curious bad a winter it's been for them. DC has .06 As bad as we have it and are skunked the rest of the way.. that is futility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Factoring in the GFS 2-meter abysmal warm bias in saturation environments, that 18z run is two day ice storm ending as 3-5" of snow on top. Also, that's an amazing 13 days worth of pancake wave mix/snow events ... Two days cyclic - Know what would be interesting ? Do a day 7 snow total for the season, and compare it to the actual snow totals at the end. I wonder if the D7 is like triple what actually happens or something - You’ve got to stop with ice storm fetish posts . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Yeah I’d punt winter right now if I could, but the next 10 or so days have a messy look to them up here. Wish we lived there. Ginx calling for all misery mist CT. Don’t want to live here for his forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: His chances are my chances, And we will gift wrap the moose patties and send them south......... It would be interesting to run the covariance of your snowfall with a place like ORH or where powderfreak is....I'd bet your covariance with ORH is higher because you get hit by most of the coastal that hit interior SNE plus all the SWFEs that we share....there's obviously some strict latitude events that only give snow to, say RUT-CON-PWM northward, but I'd bet they are fewer in number and magnitude than the former ones listed. That said, you may have one of those middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Am I honestly the only one that feels strongly that SNE is done with any more meaningful snowfalls? When you fall into a seasonal pattern this late it’s hard to reverse. There’s got to be a few people who are doubting much snowfall is left . Or maybe it really is just me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be interesting to run the covariance of your snowfall with a place like ORH or where powderfreak is....I'd bet your covariance with ORH is higher because you get hit by most of the coastal that hit interior SNE plus all the SWFEs that we share....there's obviously some strict latitude events that only give snow to, say RUT-CON-PWM northward, but I'd bet they are fewer in number and magnitude than the former ones listed. That said, you may have one of those middle of next week. I would think we are similar to interior SNE, Not sure about PF's area because he always has the upslope component which we don't have, I think ORH and here share the same seasonal snowfall number, Were at 70", Next week looks quite interesting actually could end up a long duration over a few days if some of these waves that ride the boundary develop and we remain on the northern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 42 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Of course you don't lol. Overrunning events usually delivery the bigger goods to you than a bombing coastal on the BM where more times than not you're on the NW'ern fringe of the meaningful QPF. Although you usually do clean up with the upslope stuff after the storms roll through You will always do better in crappy patterns and good patterns in your location, save for 09'-10' of course What is bolded there is definitely true. I don't agree with the good pattern stuff because I think what most of New England thinks as a good pattern will redeem higher results in the lower average snowfall areas. Our snowfall can be more steady in all patterns, IMO. Of course we have our times when all of New England is raking and we rake really high too, but it's all relative to average in my mind. Average sets expectations. In a below normal satisfaction winter, we'll certainly seem to do much better. Crappy winters are usually warmer or more cutter-ish, but even at +7 this month, our average highs were below freezing. Warmer winters also have the baroclinic zone closer to us, more activity, etc. It's been a below average winter up here, but we've had a winter with consistent snow cover and some snowy weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be interesting to run the covariance of your snowfall with a place like ORH or where powderfreak is....I'd bet your covariance with ORH is higher because you get hit by most of the coastal that hit interior SNE plus all the SWFEs that we share....there's obviously some strict latitude events that only give snow to, say RUT-CON-PWM northward, but I'd bet they are fewer in number and magnitude than the former ones listed. That said, you may have one of those middle of next week. Agreed. I bet it's closer to ORH than BTV area for climo, IMO. He's NNE latitude but in that SW to NE coastal swath. I mean, it's similar to here too in that we get mountain snowfall, just further north than the mountains further south. On the basic level, snowfall increases as you head north in latitude in the northeast. Similar climate but further north, you're going to do a bit better with a longer length of snow season on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 sne will see more snowfall this winter...another 10-25" for most seems reasonable. Hope so because my snowfall forecast is going down in flames w/out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Am I honestly the only one that feels strongly that SNE is done with any more meaningful snowfalls? When you fall into a seasonal pattern this late it’s hard to reverse. There’s got to be a few people who are doubting much snowfall is left . Or maybe it really is just me. I get your frustration completely. And it’s Easy to just throw up your hands and give in to futility. But when you think about things a little more rationally, Feb hasn’t even started yet..and it feels a lot later than it really is-cuz we’ve had so little snow since winter started. But there really is a whole second half of winter yet to get through...so to say there will be no more Accumulating snow is rather silly and foolish when one lives in SNE, on January 30th. But Where we’ve been, and where we are currently, it sure seems like we could go the next 6 weeks without anymore accumulating snow..so I get your frustration completely. Cuz I’m feeling it too. But I do think we’ll see something pop for us at some point in this second half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 25 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: sne will see more snowfall this winter...another 10-25" for most seems reasonable. Hope so because my snowfall forecast is going down in flames w/out 30-40" more. 1 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: AHHHH...The Allsnow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Winter scene through the lens today... below normal snow winter, but certainly could be worse. Made up some ground recently. Hopefully everyone can get some snow accums in the next 7-10 days of short waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wish we lived there. Ginx calling for all misery mist CT. Don’t want to live here for his forecast Lol can't discuss a model output without it being a forecast. North trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 This thread has gone full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I’m about 18-20” from average seasonal totals and feel like that is quite doable with a solid 8 weeks of winter ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m about 18-20” from average seasonal totals and feel like that is quite doable with a solid 8 weeks of winter ahead. I don’t know about a solid 8 wks...that might be a LIL bit of a stretch? But a solid 6 weeks for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t know about a solid 8 wks...that might be a LIL bit of a stretch? But a solid 6 weeks for sure. Through the end of March is definitely valid at his latitude. Even down here in the valley, March or April was the snowiest month in four of the last seven winters. It's always possible we shut it down for good in short order, but if you could only reference climo, it wouldn't be a stretch at all to allow for at least 8 more weeks in the interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 even brad field going with his winter forecast not changing it at all. like some are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Through the end of March is definitely valid at his latitude. Even down here in the valley, March or April was the snowiest month in four of the last seven winters. It's always possible we shut it down for good in short order, but if you could only reference climo, it wouldn't be a stretch at all to allow for at least 8 more weeks in the interior. #marchiswinter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/30/2020 at 8:37 PM, Damage In Tolland said: DC has .06 As bad as we have it and are skunked the rest of the way.. that is futility Imagine being a guy like me (who loves snow every bit as much as you all) and mentally dealing with .03” in Philly to date... I'm a lucky one though (living 35 miles nw of Philly) with 3” on the year! Great stuff for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 The 7th storm is also trending the wrong way for the coast. Far interior areas near the lakes have a shot as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Looks like a lot of potential overrunning events for the northeast. While op runs are fairly useless beyond day 5, they consistently have been showing some overrunning deals....so clearly they're trying to tell us something. It's an overrunning pattern look, so latitude it preferred. That does not mean it is strictly always further north, just that it is preferred in these looks. Early on like next week is probably a upstate NY and NNE deal before it shifts south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a lot of potential overrunning events for the northeast. While op runs are fairly useless beyond day 5, they consistently have been showing some overrunning deals....so clearly they're trying to tell us something. It's an overrunning pattern look, so latitude it preferred. That does not mean it is strictly always further north, just that it is preferred in these looks. Early on like next week is probably a upstate NY and NNE deal before it shifts south some. But we know that somehow the 6z GFS will verify with almost 100% accuracy on where the boundary sets up It has become comical now, sitting at just over 14 inches for the season here, 30ish inches away from average, that is a lot of SWFEs needed to make up that ground in the next 2 months.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: But we know that somehow the 6z GFS will verify with almost 100% accuracy on where the boundary sets up It has become comical now, sitting at just over 14 inches for the season here, 30ish inches away from average, that is a lot of SWFEs needed to make up that ground in the next 2 months.... My guess is it’s going to be tough to make up the difference.... the look still isn’t really a good one for SNE... and you see how little we’ve been able to do so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: But we know that somehow the 6z GFS will verify with almost 100% accuracy on where the boundary sets up It has become comical now, sitting at just over 14 inches for the season here, 30ish inches away from average, that is a lot of SWFEs needed to make up that ground in the next 2 months.... I'm at 18.3" and a good chance this season will be lower than 15-16 here. I cracked over 44" in that one. But who knows, a couple of good events and we're right back in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a lot of potential overrunning events for the northeast. While op runs are fairly useless beyond day 5, they consistently have been showing some overrunning deals....so clearly they're trying to tell us something. It's an overrunning pattern look, so latitude it preferred. That does not mean it is strictly always further north, just that it is preferred in these looks. Early on like next week is probably a upstate NY and NNE deal before it shifts south some. Nice rainy week for us. Should make things festive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Nice rainy week for us. Should make things festive You clearly need medication based on your Aaron Hernandez like behavior. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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