ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 This pattern looks nothing like 2012. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This pattern looks nothing like 2012. Yeah I'm not sure what that's for ... I was just goading Kevin - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: And the NAVGEM has a prelude Miller B ... so, we're set then - You know "maybe" Tip is on to something before his Feb.10th or so deadline!, If this continues say for another week, by all means Tip should start the thread! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, 512high said: You know "maybe" Tip is on to something before his Feb.10th or so deadline!, If this continues say for another week, by all means Tip should start the thread! Will and I are not permitted to start storm threads for a while... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This pattern looks nothing like 2012. No one said anything about this pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 40 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Shades of 2012...want want want..hoping for a beastly +nao late month into March too I hope you get five feet of snow dropped right on your driveway LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: No one said anything about this pattern You literally said shades of 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 44 minutes ago, powderfreak said: No one wants below normal with a gradient pattern for DC/Philly . Keep the heating bills in check and drape frontal boundaries nearby for lots of overrunning. With latitude, BN temps aren't needed. 2/5/2001 25 8 (+1.4) 0.58" 7.0" 2/6/2001 30 23 (+11.5) 0.81" 10.0" 2/10/2005 32 21 (+10.7) 1.34" 15.0" (w/thunder) 2/11/2005 23 16 (+3.6) 0.36 6.0" or next month: 3/8/2018 30 23 (+2.4) 1.90" 19.6" May not (likely won't) get anything like the above, but milder than average isn't doom, at least not until after the equinox. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: You literally said shades of 2012 Late night delivering packages. Lack of sleep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: You literally said shades of 2012 I literally said late Feb. into March, not January 30th jumping the trolling gun, folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 not even February yet and 70 pages of riled up weenies with pitchforks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 The overrunning threat for mid to late next week should be much easier for the medium range models to handle compared to this weekend's fiasco since we're not trying to deal with the interaction between multiple shortwaves. Obviously details such as front placement and precip type are TBD, but my confidence for a long duration significant QPF event in the 6-9 day range is quite high and I think someone (most likely NNE right now) cashes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: not even February yet and 70 pages of riled up weenies with pitchforks And you love it!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, tamarack said: And you love it!! wx is pretty nice, the complaining isn't. NNE 'ers aren't too bad, it's mostly the people from NY and surrounding. big-city disposition of neurosis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 35 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: not even February yet and 70 pages of riled up weenies with pitchforks Have we ever had a 100 page thread before a month has even started...with no interesting weather upcoming? squad goals 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: not even February yet and 70 pages of riled up weenies with pitchforks Lmao... I laughed at that visual image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Poor Ant. If things are getting really bad don't forget to call this number 1-800-273-8255 God Bless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 We are going to have our chances. GFS and Euro offered some decent hope for the next 7-10 days with a variety of overrunning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We are going to have our chances. GFS and Euro offered some decent hope for the next 7-10 days with a variety of overrunning events. Yeah I’d punt winter right now if I could, but the next 10 or so days have a messy look to them up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 35 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We are going to have our chances. GFS and Euro offered some decent hope for the next 7-10 days with a variety of overrunning events. Yes, I'm sure the picnic tables will get by. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 His chances are not our chances. Moose Fart for the win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Factoring in the GFS 2-meter abysmal warm bias in saturation environments, that 18z run is two day ice storm ending as 3-5" of snow on top. Also, that's an amazing 13 days worth of pancake wave mix/snow events ... Two days cyclic - Know what would be interesting ? Do a day 7 snow total for the season, and compare it to the actual snow totals at the end. I wonder if the D7 is like triple what actually happens or something - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 OT but anybody know how much snow KNYC, KPHL, KBAL, KDCA and KIAD have this season? I know it's lower than BOS and of course ORH but just curious bad a winter it's been for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 My friend who moved to Utah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: OT but anybody know how much snow KNYC, KPHL, KBAL, KDCA and KIAD have this season? I know it's lower than BOS and of course ORH but just curious bad a winter it's been for them. I'm at 3.3 in southern NYC. I think Central Park has 4.8 inches. Philly and D.C dont even have an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Yes, I'm sure the picnic tables will get by. Yeah I like SWFE chances even if they aren’t big dogs...they are usually moderate events but widespread. But I don’t get all jacked up on a late blooming Miller B pattern like some of ya’ll. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Factoring in the GFS 2-meter abysmal warm bias in saturation environments, that 18z run is two day ice storm ending as 3-5" of snow on top. Also, that's an amazing 13 days worth of pancake wave mix/snow events ... Two days cyclic - Know what would be interesting ? Do a day 7 snow total for the season, and compare it to the actual snow totals at the end. I wonder if the D7 is like triple what actually happens or something - At least 5x for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: At least 5x for some. I think it would depend on the run... do you only take 1 run and 7 day totals or do you do a running blend with 4 runs per day? I do think the ensemble snow maps are pretty solid on the whole for 7-day chunks...but they don’t have those wild swings of the Ops and are essentially an ensemble QPF map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I like SWFE chances even if they aren’t big dogs...they are usually moderate events but widespread. But I don’t get all jacked up on a late blooming Miller B pattern like some of ya’ll. Of course you don't lol. Overrunning events usually delivery the bigger goods to you than a bombing coastal on the BM where more times than not you're on the NW'ern fringe of the meaningful QPF. Although you usually do clean up with the upslope stuff after the storms roll through You will always do better in crappy patterns and good patterns in your location, save for 09'-10' of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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