Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If you live in CT and are upset over frozen water, look away. While PF and friends have days and days of snow verbatim on the Euro, misery mist is occurring in CT. That's 94 displaced 150 miles. There is your north trend my friend on da mt You’ll get your wish. Tracking and enjoying snow where you don’t live 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Heh...it occurs to me ... five days ago the GFS put out a couple of runs that had a near historic bomb along or off the EC for 300 hours - we were all dismissive in our usual flare, but the cinema was certainly fun! This thing at 180+ is really that same interval/next major trough attempt back east. I was just looking at the GEF individual members and ever single one of them has a baroclinic leaf smearing up the EC for that period of time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Heh...it occurs to me ... five days ago the GFS put out a couple of runs that had a near historic bomb along or off the EC for 300 hours - we were all dismissive in our usual flare, but the cinema was certainly fun! This thing at 180+ is really that same interval/next major trough attempt back east. I was just looking at the GEF individual members and ever single one of them has a baroclinic leaf smearing up the EC for that period of time next week. So didn't all the models do the same thing? or just the GFS? Just noise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 At least with an overrunning event, Don't have to worry much about whiffing, Just a matter if the air mass is cold enough to support snow up here anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 You can see the difference between the 00z EPS and the 12z EPS on the midweek setup...fwiw, most other guidance is trending like this too. So we'll have to see if that continues or trends back the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’ll get your wish. Tracking and enjoying snow where you don’t live Southern trend my friend always works out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Steve rebuilt the EPO today on the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro definitely look a step toward the overrunning look but verbatim still a bit too far north for most of us....looks like NNE stays mostly/all frozen or freezing. Start a storm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Start a storm thread? Go for it....that'll be a good way to ensure Quebec City jackpots. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 33 minutes ago, 512high said: So didn't all the models do the same thing? or just the GFS? Just noise? Ah...I think it was just the GFS. Not sure what the ensemble mean was back then, but the operational. And I'm not sure it was noise in whole - if there's something in the flow that can be volatile, that may have been just an early attempt to resolve it. More like a fuzzy attempt - in a range that probably shouldn't be really revealed. haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I'll start a thread...I have incredible luck with the convective/severe wx threads. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Like 90 in March..could go that route if the NAO fails, but I doubt it. Farmington's 5 warmest March days in 127 years of record: 83 22/2012 82 21/2012 80 20/2012 79 20/1903 78 18/2012 That heat wrecked some logging roads and stranded thousands of cords on frozen-ground-only yards. Contractors rushed to haul the quality hardwoods as $100 sawlogs would be $5 pulp sticks by the following December. Give me a pattern like that in early May instead, to avoid the oft-suffered 43° misery mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Go for it....that'll be a good way to ensure Quebec City jackpots. Yeah I was thinking Detroit, but same thing ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 36 minutes ago, dryslot said: At least with an overrunning event, Don't have to worry much about whiffing, Just a matter if the air mass is cold enough to support snow up here anyways. speaking of idiosyncrasies .. the Euro was interesting in that it takes 30 hour to moves an open flat wave from the lower interior M/A to off Cape cod, which is quite strange when the flow overall is moving along at ludicrous speed - yeah, there's going to need to be some refining there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 JMA looks awesome at 120 hours with a polar arm of fresh molasses through eastern Ontario and the front pushed S ...meanwhile, split flow high Plains with eject low underneath. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 And the NAVGEM has a prelude Miller B ... so, we're set then - 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 12/9/05 is my ultimate weather memory, in relation to the weather channel. I hadn't started as a hobbyist yet, all I had was the weather channel. Went from light rain to powerful thundersnow in minutes. I thought I was dreaming. I just kept watching local on the 8's. Roads untreated... sliding down my street. It was insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Now we just need the Icon, KMA and ARPEGE and we can lock it in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: JMA looks awesome at 120 hours with a polar arm of fresh molasses through eastern Ontario and the front pushed S ...meanwhile, split flow high Plains with eject low underneath. nice 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: And the NAVGEM has a prelude Miller B ... so, we're set then - Yup...the only problem is, they never make it to verification this year. Everything looks exciting/interesting at 6-8 days, then slowly but surely sh*ts the bed as we draw closer. But who knows...maybe this is the time things start to verify? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Start a storm thread? another sun day storm to track10 days away. yipee. It'll go OTS no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: another sun day storm to track10 days away. yipee. It'll go OTS no doubt Doesn't OTS get followed by a cutter? And so on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Classic - small flake and massive flake, thats how you knew the it was really going to snow. I was only 9 at the time. Or on the 5 day business planner when the deep white was on you instead of the gray. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: Doesn't OTS get followed by a cutter? And so on... maybe we can squeeze in a cutter before the 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12z suite definitely showing the positive (from a snow lover's view) potential in February. I'm sure we'll have some runs that show us the negative potential. Midweek is definitely more interesting than it was earlier, but I'd definitely still hedge warmer at the moment....gonna be a fight to get that boundary south of about ART-BTV....but we'll see. The transient EPO ridge that moves through around D3-4 is what causes the southward press of the arctic boundary, and the EPO has been biasing positive recently. Behind that system though there's some good things that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Sell everything good 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Only time I go to Sugarloaf. Way too cold earlier than that. Speaking of which, beautiful skiing weather yesterday, today and this weekend. Mohawk was great yesterday. I’m with my school group at WaWaWachusett. They have almost all the trails open but the edges are getting narrower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of divergence on guidance (and within their own ensembles) for next week....could literally be 60F or snowing and 20F next Wednesday/Thursday. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see the difference between the 00z EPS and the 12z EPS on the midweek setup...fwiw, most other guidance is trending like this too. So we'll have to see if that continues or trends back the other way We all know where this is headed. Congrats Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sell everything good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No one wants below normal with a gradient pattern for DC/Philly . Keep the heating bills in check and drape frontal boundaries nearby for lots of overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Shades of 2012...want want want..hoping for a beastly +nao late month into March too 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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