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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If you live in CT and are upset over frozen water, look away. While PF and friends have days and days of snow verbatim on the Euro,  misery mist is occurring in CT. That's 94 displaced 150 miles. There is your north trend my friend on da mt

You’ll get your wish. Tracking and enjoying snow where you don’t live 

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Heh...it occurs to me ... five days ago the GFS put out a couple of runs that had a near historic bomb along or off the EC for 300 hours - we were all dismissive in our usual flare, but the cinema was certainly fun!  

This thing at 180+ is really that same interval/next major trough attempt back east.  

I was just looking at the GEF individual members and ever single one of them has a baroclinic leaf smearing up the EC for that period of time next week.  

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh...it occurs to me ... five days ago the GFS put out a couple of runs that had a near historic bomb along or off the EC for 300 hours - we were all dismissive in our usual flare, but the cinema was certainly fun!  

This thing at 180+ is really that same interval/next major trough attempt back east.  

I was just looking at the GEF individual members and ever single one of them has a baroclinic leaf smearing up the EC for that period of time next week.  

So didn't all the models do the same thing? or just the GFS? Just noise?

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33 minutes ago, 512high said:

So didn't all the models do the same thing? or just the GFS? Just noise?

Ah...I think it was just the GFS. Not sure what the ensemble mean was back then, but the operational.  And I'm not sure it was noise in whole - if there's something in the flow that can be volatile, that may have been just an early attempt to resolve it.  More like a fuzzy attempt - in a range that probably shouldn't be really revealed.  haha

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like 90 in March..could go that route if the NAO fails, but I doubt it.

Farmington's 5 warmest March days in 127 years of record:

83   22/2012
82   21/2012
80   20/2012
79   20/1903
78   18/2012

That heat wrecked some logging roads and stranded thousands of cords on frozen-ground-only yards.  Contractors rushed to haul the quality hardwoods as $100 sawlogs would be $5 pulp sticks by the following December.  Give me a pattern like that in early May instead, to avoid the oft-suffered 43° misery mist. 

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36 minutes ago, dryslot said:

At least with an overrunning event, Don't have to worry much about whiffing, Just a matter if the air mass is cold enough to support snow up here anyways.

speaking of idiosyncrasies .. the Euro was interesting in that it takes 30 hour to moves an open flat wave from the lower interior M/A to off Cape cod, which is quite strange when the flow overall is moving along at ludicrous speed - 

yeah, there's going to need to be some refining there. 

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12/9/05 is my ultimate weather memory, in relation to the weather channel.

I hadn't started as a hobbyist yet, all I had was the weather channel. Went from light rain to powerful thundersnow in minutes. I thought I was dreaming. I just kept watching local on the 8's. Roads untreated... sliding down my street. It was insane.

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

JMA looks awesome at 120 hours with a polar arm of fresh molasses through eastern Ontario and the front pushed S ...meanwhile, split flow high Plains with eject low underneath. 

nice

 

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And the NAVGEM has a prelude Miller B ...

so, we're set then - 

 

 

 

 

 

:wacko2:

Yup...the only problem is, they never make it to verification this year.  Everything looks exciting/interesting at 6-8 days, then slowly but surely sh*ts the bed as we draw closer.  

But who knows...maybe this is the time things start to verify?

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12z suite definitely showing the positive (from a snow lover's view) potential in February. I'm sure we'll have some runs that show us the negative potential.

Midweek is definitely more interesting than it was earlier, but I'd definitely still hedge warmer at the moment....gonna be a fight to get that boundary south of about ART-BTV....but we'll see. The transient EPO ridge that moves through around D3-4 is what causes the southward press of the arctic boundary, and the EPO has been biasing positive recently.

Behind that system though there's some good things that can happen.

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3 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Only time I go to Sugarloaf. Way too cold earlier than that. Speaking of which, beautiful skiing weather yesterday, today and this weekend. Mohawk was great yesterday.

I’m with my school group at WaWaWachusett.   They have almost all the trails open but the edges are getting narrower.    

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lot of divergence on guidance (and within their own ensembles) for next week....could literally be 60F or snowing and 20F next Wednesday/Thursday.

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the difference between the 00z EPS and the 12z EPS on the midweek setup...fwiw, most other guidance is trending like this too. So we'll have to see if that continues or trends back the other way

 

pdtmnlU.gif

 

 

We all know where this is headed. Congrats Montreal.

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