powderfreak Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: People who are low on snow in here are crazy. I mean it's like they have not lived through a low snow Dec Jan before. Amazing It’s also like people haven’t lived through a below normal snowfall season either. It’s like the options are “ratter” or above normal snow. Also really dumb to throw in the towel in areas where one good bomb can get you to near normal snowfall in SNE with totals already amassed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 liquid to lewiston..but good thump for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: It’s also like people haven’t lived through a below normal snowfall season either. It’s like the options are “ratter” or above normal snow. Also really dumb to throw in the towel in areas where one good bomb can get you to near normal snowfall in SNE with totals already amassed. Yeah it’s feast or famine in terms of ratter or AN snow. Someone averages 50” and I feel like if they get 40” it’s a ratter to them. I consider ratter, the real shit winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I think what we are going to see is a roller coaster for a time. Next weekend regardless of what happens, will feature a cold shot. We’ll then probably moderate as the next trough drops into the west before the EPO rebounds and finally shifts things more to the east coast in terms of troughing. It’s modeled well on the ensembles and I see no reason why it won’t happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s also like people haven’t lived through a below normal snowfall season either. It’s like the options are “ratter” or above normal snow. Also really dumb to throw in the towel in areas where one good bomb can get you to near normal snowfall in SNE with totals already amassed. I’ll take one big bomb and move onto spring but I don’t grade winters based on total snowfall alone. It’s probably at the bottom or middle of the grading list for me thesedays. The core of winter has been awful, and that won’t change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What was it like at 12z? Massive shift in a good way? Or bad? Probably bad right? It’s 9 days out so doesn’t matter anyway... Good 18z top 12z bottom 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 35 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s also like people haven’t lived through a below normal snowfall season either. It’s like the options are “ratter” or above normal snow. Also really dumb to throw in the towel in areas where one good bomb can get you to near normal snowfall in SNE with totals already amassed. Last winter was a below normal non ratter, it happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 It may be the JMA, but this is more what we want to see in the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: It may be the JMA, but this is more what we want to see in the other models. Idk I kinda liked the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Here is 2015. At 50mb, it's more near and just north of Siberia...not so much in Canada or over Hudson Bay. However, as Tombo noted a few days ago, you can see a big ridge in AK and the elongation favorable for cold air delivery. You don't have to have the strat PV sitting in Canada. That 50mb look would be fine. Also note I am no expert...just sort of going by what makes sense to me. Yup, it doesn't matter if it's in Siberia or not but has to be elongated north south. It's not a 100% correlation but some of our good cold outbreaks had that look with ridging either in AK or Scand or both. Here is the winter of 2014 here is thestrat look a few days prior to feb 14 2016 that sent NYC to -1 1994 cold outbreak then cold shot this november. Can see how most of those years had either a wave 1 strat ridge near AK or had wave 2 strat ridges near AK and into parts of europe that elongates the vortex north south. If we look at where we are now, it's the complete opposite of what we want for any strat induced cold shots as the ridging is in central Canada. But we then head to this at the end of the euro run which if the past dictates the future, we should see a good cold shot coming into the plains and east past day 10 as we have a strong wave 2 ridging from AK and Europe elongating the vortex 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Idk I kinda liked the Euro So did I, but like I said, it hasn't inspired confidence in lr solutions lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think what we are going to see is a roller coaster for a time. Next weekend regardless of what happens, will feature a cold shot. We’ll then probably moderate as the next trough drops into the west before the EPO rebounds and finally shifts things more to the east coast in terms of troughing. It’s modeled well on the ensembles and I see no reason why it won’t happen that way. I’m on that bandwagon right now. Getting better but still plenty of problems for sustained deep winter through D10-12...then maybe 2nd week of February is when we see it become a little more entrenched....but we’ve been faked out before already this year so we’ll see how this one does. Btw, this says nothing of the storm next week...that’s all about timing with 3 different shortwaves. It could end up anywhere. Hopefully we catch a break and it’s a snowier solution. At least we’ll have something closer to a seasonable airmass ahead of it....as it looks right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Man another rainer to Mainer next weekend as modeled on most guidance. That’ll do wonders for folks demeanors on here . Thankfully have been so consumed with work I don’t have time to care much 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Drinking again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Drinking again? Doesn’t stop, sad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Doesn’t stop, sad I’m double checking to see what shows these rains to the border and...I can’t find anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 DIT be like Rain to Maine to partly cloudy is all on the table for a day 8 forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 we all hope for bombogenesis, the divide is where it happens. Some want 950mb near TOL (as in Toledo) all the way to 40/70. Let's just hope we see that much in guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man another rainer to Mainer next weekend as modeled on most guidance. That’ll do wonders for folks demeanors on here . Thankfully have been so consumed with work I don’t have time to care much Unable to wishcast a snow storm during peak winter and ending winter in late Feb. You may as well retire and move to Florida now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Idk I kinda liked the Euro I loved the euro that would be a true blizzard from DC to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I think what we are going to see is a roller coaster for a time. Next weekend regardless of what happens, will feature a cold shot. We’ll then probably moderate as the next trough drops into the west before the EPO rebounds and finally shifts things more to the east coast in terms of troughing. It’s modeled well on the ensembles and I see no reason why it won’t happen that way. Who stole Debbie's log on? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I loved the euro that would be a true blizzard from DC to Boston There’s nothing worse than wasting lots of snow on the major megalopolis cities. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: There’s nothing worse than wasting lots of snow on the major megalopolis cities. Come on dude we need it we’re feening our here. Just one big blizzard and a few smaller events and I’ll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Come on dude we need it we’re feening our here. Just one big blizzard and a few smaller events and I’ll be happy You did fine in Jan 16. They’re like a 1 in 10yr storm for nyc so you have another 6 years to go, patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: Unable to wishcast a snow storm during peak winter and ending winter in late Feb. You may as well retire and move to Florida now. Even you are demoralized . Ray is the last man standing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Come on dude we need it we’re feening our here. Just one big blizzard and a few smaller events and I’ll be happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 The GEFS at the moment, especially now on the 18z are almost repeating what happened with the "great" look in the long range...trough in the east, cold coming, but as we start inching closer day by day, that trough shifts westward and we end up with a ridge in the east...hope its wrong, but it is almost like we have seen this story before, not too long ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m on that bandwagon right now. Getting better but still plenty of problems for sustained deep winter through D10-12...then maybe 2nd week of February is when we see it become a little more entrenched....but we’ve been faked out before already this year so we’ll see how this one does. Btw, this says nothing of the storm next week...that’s all about timing with 3 different shortwaves. It could end up anywhere. Hopefully we catch a break and it’s a snowier solution. At least we’ll have something closer to a seasonable airmass ahead of it....as it looks right now. Yeah I can’t even get caught up with that lol. I’m just looking ahead. l hope we don’t get faked out, but I feel somewhat optimistic. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Good 18z top 12z bottom Outstanding we go from rain-to-rain to snow-to rain. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now