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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

People who are low on snow in here are crazy. I mean it's like they have not lived through a low snow Dec Jan before.  Amazing 

It’s also like people haven’t lived through a below normal snowfall season either.  

It’s like the options are “ratter” or above normal snow.  

Also really dumb to throw in the towel in areas where one good bomb can get you to near normal snowfall in SNE with totals already amassed.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It’s also like people haven’t lived through a below normal snowfall season either.  

It’s like the options are “ratter” or above normal snow.  

Also really dumb to throw in the towel in areas where one good bomb can get you to near normal snowfall in SNE with totals already amassed.

Yeah it’s feast or famine in terms of ratter or AN snow. :lol:    Someone averages 50” and I feel like if they get 40” it’s a ratter to them. I consider ratter, the real shit winters. 

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I think what we are going to see is a roller coaster for a time. Next weekend regardless of what happens, will feature a cold shot. We’ll then probably moderate as the next trough drops into the west before the EPO rebounds and finally shifts things more to the east coast in terms of troughing.  It’s modeled well on the ensembles and I see no reason why it won’t happen that way. 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s also like people haven’t lived through a below normal snowfall season either.  

It’s like the options are “ratter” or above normal snow.  

Also really dumb to throw in the towel in areas where one good bomb can get you to near normal snowfall in SNE with totals already amassed.

I’ll take one big bomb and move onto spring but I don’t grade winters based on total snowfall alone. It’s probably at the bottom or middle of the grading list for me thesedays. The core of winter has been awful, and that won’t change. 

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35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s also like people haven’t lived through a below normal snowfall season either.  

It’s like the options are “ratter” or above normal snow.  

Also really dumb to throw in the towel in areas where one good bomb can get you to near normal snowfall in SNE with totals already amassed.

Last winter was a below normal non ratter, it happens

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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is 2015. At 50mb, it's more near and just north of Siberia...not so much in Canada or over Hudson Bay. However, as Tombo noted a few days ago, you can see a big ridge in AK and the elongation favorable for cold air delivery. You don't have to have the strat PV sitting in Canada. That 50mb look would be fine. 

Also note I am no expert...just sort of going by what makes sense to me. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yup, it doesn't matter if it's in Siberia or not but has to be elongated north south. It's not a 100% correlation but some of our good cold outbreaks had that look with ridging either in AK or Scand or both. 

Here is the winter of 2014

compday.5nbwos7hZq.gif.1e1e3d524772f1b76a5595e0e790270c.gif

here is thestrat look a few days prior to feb 14 2016 that sent NYC to -1

compday.aEyxGy9rN9.gif.2305a12bb1b283148ae20318aa168940.gif

1994 cold outbreak

compday.mBuo1XWNBG.gif.1a70cab5236892c7060083cf85fe02c2.gif

then cold shot this november.

compday.v8a3ahQh43.gif.108598bb023d579f2ed579782261ca65.gif

Can see how most of those years had either a wave 1 strat ridge near AK or had wave 2 strat ridges near AK and into parts of europe that elongates the vortex north south.

If we look at where we are now, it's the complete opposite of what we want for any strat induced cold shots as the ridging is in central Canada.ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-0115600.thumb.png.a54cc1fb08eb1dd379f6d383aa6207fd.png

But we then head to this at the end of the euro run which if the past dictates the future, we should see a good cold shot coming into the plains and east past day 10 as we have a strong wave 2 ridging from AK and Europe elongating the vortex

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-0731200.thumb.png.fac14ac94c52afada2496c3ff0194b35.png

 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think what we are going to see is a roller coaster for a time. Next weekend regardless of what happens, will feature a cold shot. We’ll then probably moderate as the next trough drops into the west before the EPO rebounds and finally shifts things more to the east coast in terms of troughing.  It’s modeled well on the ensembles and I see no reason why it won’t happen that way. 

I’m on that bandwagon right now. Getting better but still plenty of problems for sustained deep winter through D10-12...then maybe 2nd week of February is when we see it become a little more entrenched....but we’ve been faked out before already this year so we’ll see how this one does. 

Btw, this says nothing of the storm next week...that’s all about timing with 3 different shortwaves. It could end up anywhere. Hopefully we catch a break and it’s a snowier solution. At least we’ll have something closer to a seasonable airmass ahead of it....as it looks right now. 

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man another rainer to Mainer next weekend as modeled on most guidance. That’ll do wonders for folks demeanors on here . Thankfully  have been so consumed with work I don’t have time to care much 

Unable to wishcast a snow storm during peak winter and ending winter in late Feb. You may as well retire and move to Florida now.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think what we are going to see is a roller coaster for a time. Next weekend regardless of what happens, will feature a cold shot. We’ll then probably moderate as the next trough drops into the west before the EPO rebounds and finally shifts things more to the east coast in terms of troughing.  It’s modeled well on the ensembles and I see no reason why it won’t happen that way. 

Who stole Debbie's log on?

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The GEFS at the moment, especially now on the 18z are almost repeating what happened with the "great" look in the long range...trough in the east, cold coming, but as we start inching closer day by day, that trough shifts westward and we end up with a ridge in the east...hope its wrong, but it is almost like we have seen this story before, not too long ago...

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m on that bandwagon right now. Getting better but still plenty of problems for sustained deep winter through D10-12...then maybe 2nd week of February is when we see it become a little more entrenched....but we’ve been faked out before already this year so we’ll see how this one does. 

Btw, this says nothing of the storm next week...that’s all about timing with 3 different shortwaves. It could end up anywhere. Hopefully we catch a break and it’s a snowier solution. At least we’ll have something closer to a seasonable airmass ahead of it....as it looks right now. 

Yeah I can’t even get caught up with that lol. I’m just looking ahead. l hope we don’t get faked out, but I feel somewhat optimistic. We shall see.

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