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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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GGEM does bear some homage to that ... but, we wouldn't have quite the depth of cold air over NE as that which set stage for whatever materialized from that set up back whence. 

The Euro looks too - typically - deep in the west and hieghty back east as a downstream coupled result of too much digging west..  Even it it's only 3-6 dm of heights that crucial.   Not saying any other guidance is right either necessarily.  

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

GGEM does bear some homage to that ... but, we wouldn't have quite the depth of cold air over NE as that which set stage for whatever materialized from that set up back whence. 

 

The Euro looks too - typically - deep in the west and hieghty back east as a downstream coupled result of too much digging west..  Even it it's only 3-6 dm of heights that crucial.   Not saying any other guidance is right either necessarily.  

UKMET was probably the most aggressive with the overrunning look next week...only goes out to 144 hours, but can extrapolate the look

 

 

 

Jan30_12zUkie144.png

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

UKMET was probably the most aggressive with the overrunning look next week...only goes out to 144 hours, but can extrapolate the look

...

No shit ... that's an ice-storm powder-keg ...  

My confidence is rattled frankly with weather modelling.  This last fiasco is a pretty astounding failure at getting an overall mid range appeal into the short range.  I mean getting real, we should expect losses ( and gains ) ..changes in doing so, as a base line expectation.  But, this was bit more egregious than that.  

Anyway...we'll see.  

 

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Euro has a second wave developing along the front once it sags back south....ice/snow setup around D8....but this whole thing looks pretty unstable. Midweek definitely needs to be resolved first before there's really any idea what might happen after that.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has a second wave developing along the front once it sags back south....ice/snow setup around D8....but this whole thing looks pretty unstable. Midweek definitely needs to be resolved first before there's really any idea what might happen after that.

He's trying for us. 

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I see what he means... It's like the Euro's 850 mb is stayed, but it's depiction of the low level pressure pattern has the boundary along the southern coast/LI latitudes, and in that look, once you are on the polar side of that boundary it ain't going back through. So...if one is a warmista you're sol on mild days 6 and 7 from about HFD (6), and NYC (7)...  

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What has ? :)  

It's not the same as the end of the solar nadir stuff - the nadir period is empirically derived solar flux minimum.  We're not outside that just yet  -

ok, maybe its the internal/mental shift to spring despite the calendar date, its just extra early this year...Which means, a -NAO sets up March 25th through June 15th this year, :raining:

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That boundary next week looks to be no joke...could be a rather substantial gradient...going from like +8C to -8C to  in a rather small across a small horizontal scale. Also looks like it could be very active convectively in the south (mentioned this a few days ago!!) with severe outbreak possible...hopefully that won't rob any moisture. Often times too I feel like these overrunning scenarios struggle to pan out to what their first modeled to be. Something else too with the convection is if it is indeed active the models may struggle with the heights here in the east. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has a second wave developing along the front once it sags back south....ice/snow setup around D8....but this whole thing looks pretty unstable. Midweek definitely needs to be resolved first before there's really any idea what might happen after that.

If you live in CT and are upset over frozen water, look away. While PF and friends have days and days of snow verbatim on the Euro,  misery mist is occurring in CT. That's 94 displaced 150 miles. There is your north trend my friend on da mt

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12 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

ok, maybe its the internal/mental shift to spring despite the calendar date, its just extra early this year...Which means, a -NAO sets up March 25th through June 15th this year, :raining:

heh...no argument .. 

everything is f-up frankly.   These incredible high velocity depictions are basically what happens when the planetary Hadely Cell is extending into the lower middle latitudes, while the boreal seasonal heights are pressing from the N.  When the velocities are high in between troughs, that is a base line trouble.  But, it seems to expand in pulses... It receded last week and we relaxed the flow...but the N/stream seemed weak too, so we lost both and that ended up not helping winter storm enthusiast's intents and purposes.  So it may not be fast flow all the time, either. 

I'm on the fence for Feb. I don't see that circumstantially going away at the convenience of any blocking episodes ...and in fact, blocking may not be favored anyway - indirectly related. Right now CDC/ESRL has -WPO/-EPO but it's shaky and may not be real. 

It's hard to create blocking when the L/W are stretching to accommodate velocity saturation.   Just means ...too fast of flow to allow the the 'curl' needed to start that process... etc. It can happen... 2015 did this.. but, good luck.  anyway, when/if the flow relaxes seasonally nearing March ( or starts too...), boom. 

God I hope not

 

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