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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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47 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Does anyone offhand know the snow total for Logan this month? Gotta figure it’s under double digits?

Fisher had 3.1 on his broadcast on Tuesday Edit...and I believe a total of 5.7 combined for this January and last January. Fisher also added that a total that low had only occurred in back to back Januarys one other time, and that was back in the 30's

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Typhoon Tip Winter 2017-2018 was pretty good, but other than that, regression...yea.

Oh yeah... in case I forget... I do like the idea of a late season west based -NAO...  

If it doesn't happen my feelings won't be hurt or anything - ha... it's just that we are fire hosing progressive patterns with warm invasion and velocity into the lower Ferrel latitudes all season along ( save so far our one relaxation episode spanning 10 days very recently ), and typically in March the flow starts to abate/wane anyway as the boreal cold engine revs back down. In that window, there is a tendency as the waves are just starting to shorten, for latent heat to dump into the NAO's western domain space and should the surrounding medium support so, height eruption there has some climate precedence.   

That's sort of evident in the 2017 as Ray intimates there ...and this does seem candidate year for that.  

I don't want it  -heh...no, as by then I'm definitely checked out (unless it's 1888 :) ) 

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16 minutes ago, Heat Miser said:

Why Feb 10, specifically? That strikes me as still maybe a week or two early to consider winter's back broken.

They're joking around around but that's not it. 

The annual solar nadir, which begins at our latitude roughly November 8 and ends February 8, marks the end of it for me.  The sun starts to offset snow on "light cloudy" event days... and pack eats back really efficiently almost immediately noticeable upon succeeding that time. We can even steam road surfaces while that happens as the month ages beyond that time and it's a pretty clear environmental signal that the clock is ticking, and the futility of winter and winter storms and all that, grows for me.  

But hey ..I'm the first to admit my hypocrisy at tuning back in if it gets interesting enough.  It's just like my internal seasonal clock and the alarm goes off, and I'm hitting the snooze button. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh yeah... in case I forget... I do like the idea of a late season west based -NAO...  

If it doesn't happen my feelings won't be hurt or anything - ha... it's just that we are fire hosing progressive patterns with warm invasion and velocity into the lower Ferrel latitudes all season along ( save so far our one relaxation episode spanning 10 days very recently ), and typically in March the flow starts to abate/wane anyway as the boreal cold engine revs back down. In that window, there is a tendency as the waves are just starting to shorten, for latent heat to dump into the NAO's western domain space and should the surrounding medium support so, height eruption there has some climate precedence.   

That's sort of evident in the 2017 as Ray intimates there ...and this does seem candidate year for that.  

I don't want it  -heh...no, as by then I'm definitely checked out (unless it's 1888 :) ) 

Totally agree.

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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

Honestly, the last SWFE that we had, 3-4 inches of snow that stuck around for 5 or so days, kids had some fun playing in it. I think we had lows in the single digits twice in that stretch. It definitely looked and felt like winter for that stretch, but it wasn't 1-2 feet of fun. But it also wasn't what the Mid Atlantic has been dealing with the past few winters, so maybe the glass half full look?

Yea my son loved it. When sled for several days down my sloped front yard. Amounts don’t matter to me as much anymore. Just give me snow with some staying power.

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They're joking around around but that's not it. 

The annual solar nadir, which begins at our latitude roughly November 8 and ends February 8, marks the end of it for me.  The sun starts to offset snow on "light cloudy" event days... and pack eats back really efficiently almost immediately noticeable upon succeeding that time. We can even steam road surfaces while that happens as the month ages beyond that time and it's a pretty clear environmental signal that the clock is ticking, and the futility of winter and winter storms and all that, grows for me.  

But hey ..I'm the first to admit my hypocrisy at tuning back in if it gets interesting enough.  It's just like my internal seasonal clock and the alarm goes off, and I'm hitting the snooze button. 

to be honest I think it has started already....I was just outside, 28 degrees and there is mud, not frozen ground anywhere the sun is hitting, I would assume cars are warming as we speak. My Greenhouse is pushing 60 at 1130 am in January, garlic is 4 inches high, I even have random weeds sprouting. Even they think it is spring :sun:

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like 90 in March..could go that route if the NAO fails, but I doubt it.

That's right.  I have vague memories of coaching soccer in late March.  Just looked at the numbers.  5 day stretch of 70+, with a couple spot 80s.  Monthly departure would not be far off from this one.

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29 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

to be honest I think it has started already....I was just outside, 28 degrees and there is mud, not frozen ground anywhere the sun is hitting, I would assume cars are warming as we speak. My Greenhouse is pushing 60 at 1130 am in January, garlic is 4 inches high, I even have random weeds sprouting. Even they think it is spring :sun:

What has ? :)  

It's not the same as the end of the solar nadir stuff - the nadir period is empirically derived solar flux minimum.  We're not outside that just yet  -

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lot of divergence on guidance (and within their own ensembles) for next week....could literally be 60F or snowing and 20F next Wednesday/Thursday.

I'll take the 60F for a thousand Alex.....better chance of the warmth happening than the snow this season.  But we can hope for the snow and 20F. 

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