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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Solid melt by Kevin this morning, but we've seen worse form him. This is like a B/B+ effort.

He actually believed his own north trend would happen.  It's a reaction to emotional investment in a slight chance. Teetering on a complete meltdown.  Would be pretty awesome if we go stormy snowy Mid Feb to mid March the period he says he hates snow. 

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He gone. Wonder how many names he accumulated. We all know one.

Looks like these totals will be final numbers for SNE. Closing the books 

DIT's post on the New England Snow thread this morning, predicting no measurable snow anywhere in SNE for Feb-Mar-Apr.  :o  (Of course, "hype" is short for "hyperbole.")

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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The cold is there, it looks like the storminess will be there. Knowing that blocking tends to show up in the mid range, hopefully something will popup when we least expect it. Completely different story if Canada is torching...Last year I think I had a total of 9 inches of snow from January/February combined then ended up with almost 20 inches in March, so maybe March delivers again to salvage things....

Last year shows how this type of pattern can be tough for SNE....plenty of cold just lurking but we frequently ended up on the wrong side and couldn't buy a good high for front end thumps or SWFEs. Feb 1989 was kind of a similar skunking....though it was more a lack of storms than anything, and the one big QPF event we got was a cutter.

On the flip side, periods like early Feb 2014, early Feb 1994, and Dec 2008 show how it can work out. Throw Feb 1967 in there too.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree. I think mine has done well....granted I was not extreme enough with January warmth, but I am satisfied.

Ray ,not having a MET tag, you are very bright, I enjoy your blog/outlook, HOWEVER, your second half might go down the crapper if you don't real some in, you may have met your average or getting close thanks to December, i don't know

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He actually believed his own north trend would happen.  It's a reaction to emotional investment in a slight chance. Teetering on a complete meltdown.  Would be pretty awesome if we go stormy snowy Mid Feb to mid March the period he says he hates snow. 

Either or nothing in between lol

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23 minutes ago, 512high said:

Ray ,not having a MET tag, you are very bright, I enjoy your blog/outlook, HOWEVER, your second half might go down the crapper if you don't real some in, you may have met your average or getting close thanks to December, i don't know

I never ammend anticipated seasonal totals...they are what they are. However I am not concerned, at this point.

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11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The cold is there, it looks like the storminess will be there. Knowing that blocking tends to show up in the mid range, hopefully something will popup when we least expect it. Completely different story if Canada is torching...Last year I think I had a total of 9 inches of snow from January/February combined then ended up with almost 20 inches in March, so maybe March delivers again to salvage things....

We will have our chances but we need to buckle the flow to our NE...otherwise, it’s these turd events again and again.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last year shows how this type of pattern can be tough for SNE....plenty of cold just lurking but we frequently ended up on the wrong side and couldn't buy a good high for front end thumps or SWFEs. Feb 1989 was kind of a similar skunking....though it was more a lack of storms than anything, and the one big QPF event we got was a cutter.

On the flip side, periods like early Feb 2014, early Feb 1994, and Dec 2008 show how it can work out. Throw Feb 1967 in there too.

Your Flip side all have been analogs coming up

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Your Flip side all have been analogs coming up

Our good analogs come up too...Feb '67 has been there almost every run....Feb '94 is coming up. Feb '89 is there too. Haven't seen last year actually. Feb '59 is a frustrating analog too that has popped up, though not as bad as Feb ''89.

The analogs highlight exactly what the narrative has been though....it can work out or could be a dud....it's not what people want to hear because they want "locked in" patterns and certainty....but this is the opposite of that.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our good analogs come up too...Feb '67 has been there almost every run....Feb '94 is coming up. Feb '89 is there too. Haven't seen last year actually. Feb '59 is a frustrating analog too that has popped up, though not as bad as Feb ''89.

The analogs highlight exactly what the narrative has been though....it can work out or could be a dud....it's not what people want to hear because they want "locked in" patterns and certainty....but this is the opposite of that.

There is something I've always been confused on regarding analogs. When these analogs are being tossed out are they just measuring (or matching up) the projected pattern to a previous pattern? Or do they take into account other factors such as pattern transition/evolution? 

For example, if December 1989 was popping up as an analog for the first two weeks of February...is that just indicating the projected pattern is very close in magnitude to that of December 1989...and nothing else. 

This is where I think analogs are limited b/c they just tell you pattern similarities but what they don't tell you is pattern evolution and I would think it's pattern evolution which is the biggest driver into how things transpire (again...this assumption is based on my understanding which may be completely wrong). 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is something I've always been confused on regarding analogs. When these analogs are being tossed out are they just measuring (or matching up) the projected pattern to a previous pattern? Or do they take into account other factors such as pattern transition/evolution? 

For example, if December 1989 was popping up as an analog for the first two weeks of February...is that just indicating the projected pattern is very close in magnitude to that of December 1989...and nothing else. 

This is where I think analogs are limited b/c they just tell you pattern similarities but what they don't tell you is pattern evolution and I would think it's pattern evolution which is the biggest driver into how things transpire (again...this assumption is based on my understanding which may be completely wrong). 

They are a snapshot in time....the analogs are actually dates within the month...for example, we had 3 dates in Feb 1967 showing up recently...it basically means that Feb '67 had a pretty consistent pattern that looks like the one being modeled for early February. The analogs don't tell us how the pattern will look in late February though....the pattern could change. I mean, just look at the months themselves in the analogs....when we see 2/8/94 as ananalog...it means the pattern looks similar to that date, but it doesn't tell us anything about later that month....Feb 1994 torched for a week after Valentines day....it doesn't mean 2020 would do that because the analog was only for 2/8/94....likewise, an analog for early Feb 1967 doesn't mean that we're going to stay cold like most of that month was.

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45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He actually believed his own north trend would happen.  It's a reaction to emotional investment in a slight chance. Teetering on a complete meltdown.  Would be pretty awesome if we go stormy snowy Mid Feb to mid March the period he says he hates snow. 

Lol he'd be "all in" if a couple biggies came knocking...regardless of the Late Feb/early March sun angle.  Big Snow is fun anytime.  Granted we all want it in the heart of the season(like now), but sometimes that doesn't happen.   I'd gladly take a couple major events in late Feb/March...it's still winter so bring it.

But the frustration is understandable...it's been a sh*t run of late if you're a winter weather lover. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Part of that bias has come from the EPO region. Models have been too happy to torch AK only to back off, hence the bias. 

Yep. Originally the 5th-8th was supposed to be cold. Now it’s just another round of a meh airmass that we hope is cold enough. Now we kick the can to after the 9th with the epo. For whatever reason we continue to kick the can in that area. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are a snapshot in time....the analogs are actually dates within the month...for example, we had 3 dates in Feb 1967 showing up recently...it basically means that Feb '67 had a pretty consistent pattern that looks like the one being modeled for early February. The analogs don't tell us how the pattern will look in late February though....the pattern could change. I mean, just look at the months themselves in the analogs....when we see 2/8/94 as ananalog...it means the pattern looks similar to that date, but it doesn't tell us anything about later that month....Feb 1994 torched for a week after Valentines day....it doesn't mean 2020 would do that because the analog was only for 2/8/94....likewise, an analog for early Feb 1967 doesn't mean that we're going to stay cold like most of that month was.

Gotcha....makes much more sense now. 

There is a part of me which just doesn't like analogs...not sure if it's b/c perhaps they're misused or misunderstood but you see it alot too with severe wx setups...people will go nuts b/c you have all these historic analogs popping up for an event and expect the current setup to produce similar results...and I think this goes for any type of weather event. 

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