Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Solid melt by Kevin this morning, but we've seen worse form him. This is like a B/B+ effort. He actually believed his own north trend would happen. It's a reaction to emotional investment in a slight chance. Teetering on a complete meltdown. Would be pretty awesome if we go stormy snowy Mid Feb to mid March the period he says he hates snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: He gone. Wonder how many names he accumulated. We all know one. Looks like these totals will be final numbers for SNE. Closing the books DIT's post on the New England Snow thread this morning, predicting no measurable snow anywhere in SNE for Feb-Mar-Apr. (Of course, "hype" is short for "hyperbole.") 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: The cold is there, it looks like the storminess will be there. Knowing that blocking tends to show up in the mid range, hopefully something will popup when we least expect it. Completely different story if Canada is torching...Last year I think I had a total of 9 inches of snow from January/February combined then ended up with almost 20 inches in March, so maybe March delivers again to salvage things.... Last year shows how this type of pattern can be tough for SNE....plenty of cold just lurking but we frequently ended up on the wrong side and couldn't buy a good high for front end thumps or SWFEs. Feb 1989 was kind of a similar skunking....though it was more a lack of storms than anything, and the one big QPF event we got was a cutter. On the flip side, periods like early Feb 2014, early Feb 1994, and Dec 2008 show how it can work out. Throw Feb 1967 in there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree. I think mine has done well....granted I was not extreme enough with January warmth, but I am satisfied. Ray ,not having a MET tag, you are very bright, I enjoy your blog/outlook, HOWEVER, your second half might go down the crapper if you don't real some in, you may have met your average or getting close thanks to December, i don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kev gone. And now he's driving all around New England. You wonder if there is a DC sniper repeat. Geezus...and I thought I ruffled feathers with visionary analogies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: He actually believed his own north trend would happen. It's a reaction to emotional investment in a slight chance. Teetering on a complete meltdown. Would be pretty awesome if we go stormy snowy Mid Feb to mid March the period he says he hates snow. Either or nothing in between lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 23 minutes ago, 512high said: Ray ,not having a MET tag, you are very bright, I enjoy your blog/outlook, HOWEVER, your second half might go down the crapper if you don't real some in, you may have met your average or getting close thanks to December, i don't know I never ammend anticipated seasonal totals...they are what they are. However I am not concerned, at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: The cold is there, it looks like the storminess will be there. Knowing that blocking tends to show up in the mid range, hopefully something will popup when we least expect it. Completely different story if Canada is torching...Last year I think I had a total of 9 inches of snow from January/February combined then ended up with almost 20 inches in March, so maybe March delivers again to salvage things.... We will have our chances but we need to buckle the flow to our NE...otherwise, it’s these turd events again and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I can't believe I just read "enjoy the warm spell" on January 30th, disgusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: I can't believe I just read "enjoy the warm spell" on January 30th, disgusting. If it isn't going to snow, why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it isn't going to snow, why not? It's miserable if you like winter, can't really enjoy it.. I'm going to buy a snowmaker.. oh wait cant' even do that cause it wil be 50F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: It's miserable if you like winter, can't really enjoy it.. I'm going to buy a snowmaker.. oh wait cant' even do that cause it wil be 50F I enjoy snow and pleasant weather....with bare ground? Keep the cold and cracked earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Last year shows how this type of pattern can be tough for SNE....plenty of cold just lurking but we frequently ended up on the wrong side and couldn't buy a good high for front end thumps or SWFEs. Feb 1989 was kind of a similar skunking....though it was more a lack of storms than anything, and the one big QPF event we got was a cutter. On the flip side, periods like early Feb 2014, early Feb 1994, and Dec 2008 show how it can work out. Throw Feb 1967 in there too. Your Flip side all have been analogs coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lots of rains How far north would you suppose the rain would go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Your Flip side all have been analogs coming up It will probably work out better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I enjoy snow and pleasant weather....with bare ground? Keep the cold and cracked earth. i enjoy pleasant weather, not in January or Feb.. by March I'm ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Your Flip side all have been analogs coming up Our good analogs come up too...Feb '67 has been there almost every run....Feb '94 is coming up. Feb '89 is there too. Haven't seen last year actually. Feb '59 is a frustrating analog too that has popped up, though not as bad as Feb ''89. The analogs highlight exactly what the narrative has been though....it can work out or could be a dud....it's not what people want to hear because they want "locked in" patterns and certainty....but this is the opposite of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 anyway what's the next threat? is the feb 7th gone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: anyway what's the next threat? is the feb 7th gone? Euro still has a SWFE for then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Our good analogs come up too...Feb '67 has been there almost every run....Feb '94 is coming up. Feb '89 is there too. Haven't seen last year actually. Feb '59 is a frustrating analog too that has popped up, though not as bad as Feb ''89. The analogs highlight exactly what the narrative has been though....it can work out or could be a dud....it's not what people want to hear because they want "locked in" patterns and certainty....but this is the opposite of that. There is something I've always been confused on regarding analogs. When these analogs are being tossed out are they just measuring (or matching up) the projected pattern to a previous pattern? Or do they take into account other factors such as pattern transition/evolution? For example, if December 1989 was popping up as an analog for the first two weeks of February...is that just indicating the projected pattern is very close in magnitude to that of December 1989...and nothing else. This is where I think analogs are limited b/c they just tell you pattern similarities but what they don't tell you is pattern evolution and I would think it's pattern evolution which is the biggest driver into how things transpire (again...this assumption is based on my understanding which may be completely wrong). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro still has a SWFE for then This is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Yeah the FV3 GFS has a terrible cold bias. We've tried to tell'em this for months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hope we Morch 2012 Somehow I doubt that. The raging AO/NAO are due to flip right around March. Should make for an ugly early spring. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There is something I've always been confused on regarding analogs. When these analogs are being tossed out are they just measuring (or matching up) the projected pattern to a previous pattern? Or do they take into account other factors such as pattern transition/evolution? For example, if December 1989 was popping up as an analog for the first two weeks of February...is that just indicating the projected pattern is very close in magnitude to that of December 1989...and nothing else. This is where I think analogs are limited b/c they just tell you pattern similarities but what they don't tell you is pattern evolution and I would think it's pattern evolution which is the biggest driver into how things transpire (again...this assumption is based on my understanding which may be completely wrong). They are a snapshot in time....the analogs are actually dates within the month...for example, we had 3 dates in Feb 1967 showing up recently...it basically means that Feb '67 had a pretty consistent pattern that looks like the one being modeled for early February. The analogs don't tell us how the pattern will look in late February though....the pattern could change. I mean, just look at the months themselves in the analogs....when we see 2/8/94 as ananalog...it means the pattern looks similar to that date, but it doesn't tell us anything about later that month....Feb 1994 torched for a week after Valentines day....it doesn't mean 2020 would do that because the analog was only for 2/8/94....likewise, an analog for early Feb 1967 doesn't mean that we're going to stay cold like most of that month was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This is interesting Brutal performance by the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: He actually believed his own north trend would happen. It's a reaction to emotional investment in a slight chance. Teetering on a complete meltdown. Would be pretty awesome if we go stormy snowy Mid Feb to mid March the period he says he hates snow. Lol he'd be "all in" if a couple biggies came knocking...regardless of the Late Feb/early March sun angle. Big Snow is fun anytime. Granted we all want it in the heart of the season(like now), but sometimes that doesn't happen. I'd gladly take a couple major events in late Feb/March...it's still winter so bring it. But the frustration is understandable...it's been a sh*t run of late if you're a winter weather lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Part of that bias has come from the EPO region. Models have been too happy to torch AK only to back off, hence the bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Part of that bias has come from the EPO region. Models have been too happy to torch AK only to back off, hence the bias. Yep. Originally the 5th-8th was supposed to be cold. Now it’s just another round of a meh airmass that we hope is cold enough. Now we kick the can to after the 9th with the epo. For whatever reason we continue to kick the can in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Part of that bias has come from the EPO region. Models have been too happy to torch AK only to back off, hence the bias. Yeah the Euro has been doing it too...just not as bad as the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They are a snapshot in time....the analogs are actually dates within the month...for example, we had 3 dates in Feb 1967 showing up recently...it basically means that Feb '67 had a pretty consistent pattern that looks like the one being modeled for early February. The analogs don't tell us how the pattern will look in late February though....the pattern could change. I mean, just look at the months themselves in the analogs....when we see 2/8/94 as ananalog...it means the pattern looks similar to that date, but it doesn't tell us anything about later that month....Feb 1994 torched for a week after Valentines day....it doesn't mean 2020 would do that because the analog was only for 2/8/94....likewise, an analog for early Feb 1967 doesn't mean that we're going to stay cold like most of that month was. Gotcha....makes much more sense now. There is a part of me which just doesn't like analogs...not sure if it's b/c perhaps they're misused or misunderstood but you see it alot too with severe wx setups...people will go nuts b/c you have all these historic analogs popping up for an event and expect the current setup to produce similar results...and I think this goes for any type of weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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