Cold Miser Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Could sun tan on top of the hot tub next week Awful...Unless you're Dr. Dews. He feeds on anything opposite of snow and cold, so at least one person likes that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't really see how things change moving through February. I think winter is cooked...it's not a good sign to see hardly cold air into Canada moving into February...then when you think about the processes which need to take place to completely change this and how much time is involved...we're past climo and all of a sudden we're kissing the equinox. Heck...there are times next week the -10C line at 850 is well into northern Canada. Looks like that changes drastically if ensembles are correct....they could be wrong of course, but I don't see Canada with above normal temps after about 2/4 or 2/5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Looks like that changes drastically if ensembles are correct....they could be wrong of course, but I don't see Canada with above normal temps after about 2/4 or 2/5. That is probably the final chance to drastically change things. If we get closer and that is delayed further it will become very difficult to make things happen in time. The signal for changes in the Pacific have seemed to be pretty consistent, however, the Arctic is not really cooperating...which kinda sucks b/c based on some of the changes in the Pacific we don't need a ton of changes in the Arctic but the look doesn't seem very appealing. Hopefully with the MJO signal weakening that will jump start changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 canada looks mild to me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't really see how things change moving through February. I think winter is cooked...it's not a good sign to see hardly cold air into Canada moving into February...then when you think about the processes which need to take place to completely change this and how much time is involved...we're past climo and all of a sudden we're kissing the equinox. Heck...there are times next week the -10C line at 850 is well into northern Canada. I frankly don't either ... But, I don't have access to any long-lead special regression algorithms at WSI or the government/NCEP back office experimental products either. Ensembles have not been infallible this year - I mean more so than previous years... Tele's with substantive continuity weighting have been blithely shifting passing extendeds into mids ... it's not just operationals doing this. This is more seasonal tenor-reliant I guess. For about 15 years there the stratospheric/QBO correlation was more long hand and was the way to go. You could see if the phase of the QBO was east -vs- west, and also..if it was fading vs strengthening in either, together with stratospheric temperature anomaly behavior during Dec and Jan --> rolling forward tended to parlay pretty well. Even attempting this old method ...heh, no really impressive. DEC's QBO ended 1.change but it may not be in time on the fade side... As far as the strato ..we had a non-propagating warm burst early in the month, but no sign or signature since of downwelling so... subsequent AO modulation would appear unlikely and right now, we are in a week cooler node despite whatever pot-roast the GFS' cluster is trying to serve. It's just not convincing or in time... You need 20 to 30 days of lag for SSW to AO modulation so that's the February ball game even if one obtruded in tomorrow. So, I don't know where this is coming from - but that's just me. My personal hunch is that the rest of year has dicey chances for a bomb, but important not to dismiss it...because one thing that cannot be denied is volatility amid big gradients in thickness between southern Canada and the Arklotex latitudes. So long as that's your powder-keg canvas, it's just a matter how abstract the fractal artist chooses to be. That said, it's just as likely that we do the same dance.. Then, the first sign of boreal height retreat ...we'll need to watch for a big ridge balloon in the east as the cacklers of the HC idiots eat shit in 74 F again ... Then after that ... the boreal heights warm further, and the flow relaxes, the slosh back of having late latent heat terminating to higher latitudes excites a NAO blocking episode. That then causes the same seasonal lag that's been getting more frequent over the last 10 years... and maybe a late blue deal ...more likely a lot of 44 mist to complete the theft of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 240 is a snapshot in time....there's a really quick reload in there, but the 5 day mean is already average over Canada...there's already below average temps moving across in the first first burst from 144-192. Then it goes gangbusters on the reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Awful...Unless you're Dr. Dews. He feeds on anything opposite of snow and cold, so at least one person likes that look. Exactly, a DIT pita in reverse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I frankly don't either ... But, I don't have access to any long-lead special regression algorithms at WSI or the government/NCEP back office experimental products either. In for about 15 years there there stratospheric/QBO correlation was more long hand and was the way to go. You could see if the phase of the QBO was east -vs- west, and also..if it was fading vs strengthening in either, together with stratospheric temperature anomaly behavior during Dec and Jan --> rolling forward tended to parlay pretty well. Even this old method ...heh, no really impressive. DEC's QBO ended 1.change but it may not be in time on the fade side... As far as the strato ..we had a non-propagating warm burst early in the month, but no sign or signature since of downwelling so... subsequent AO modulation would appear unlikely and right now, we are in a week cooler node despite whatever pot-roast the GFS' cluster is trying to serve. It's just not convincing or in time... You need 20 to 30 days of lag for SSW to AO modulation so that's the February ball game even if one obtruded in tomorrow. So, I don't know where this is coming from - but that's just me. My personal hunch is that the rest of year has dicey chances for a bomb, but important not to dismiss it...because one thing that cannot be denied is volatility amid big gradients in thickness between southern Canada and the Arklotex latitudes. So long as that's your powder-keg canvas, it's just a matter how abstract the fractal artist chooses to be. That said, it's just as likely that we do the same dance.. Then, the first sign of boreal height retreat ...we'll need to watch for a big ridge balloon in the east as the cacklers of the HC idiots eat shit in 74 F again ... Then after that ... the boreal heights warm further, and the flow relaxes but then we have NAO blocking episode to cause the same seasonal lag that's been getting more frequent over the last 10 years... and maybe a late blue deal ...more likely a lot of 44 mist to complete the theft of spring. It's really hard to see any assistance from the stratosphere or PV at this juncture so we'll have to get help somewhere else. The stratosphere above the Arctic looks rather cold with the PV on the strong side. If zonal winds around 50mb can relax a bit perhaps that can assist with the PV displacing south...but they've been pretty strong this month: I wish there was more information available regarding the QBO. What's become apparently obvious with the QBO (and just like any other measure of variability) is it's the structure of the wind anomalies and how they're propagating/descending. So while a raw look at the number may have provided hope for some assistance from blocking perhaps the overall structure argued against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 240 is a snapshot in time....there's a really quick reload in there, but the 5 day mean is already average over Canada...there's already below average temps moving across in the first first burst from 144-192. Then it goes gangbusters on the reload. what's 500 look like? Just judging from that but looks like a gradient-type pattern could setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 37 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I personally like where we are sitting...a few mild days to start the month, a passing coastal scraper/offshore weekend mess, then milding up for the next cutter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's really hard to see any assistance from the stratosphere or PV at this juncture so we'll have to get help somewhere else. The stratosphere above the Arctic looks rather cold with the PV on the strong side. If zonal winds around 50mb can relax a bit perhaps that can assist with the PV displacing south...but they've been pretty strong this month I wish there was more information available regarding the QBO. What's become apparently obvious with the QBO (and just like any other measure of variability) is it's the structure of the wind anomalies and how they're propagating/descending. So while a raw look at the number may have provided hope for some assistance from blocking perhaps the overall structure argued against it. There's a phase correlation with the AO ... I think it's + west - east ? Anyway, that's what I was getting at ... and that over the longer term, -AO(+AO) depending on which. We have had a +AO the majority of the winter, which hate to say ... fits the QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Can someone post the individual eps members for 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's a phase correlation with the AO ... I think it's + west - east ? Anyway, that's what I was getting at ... and that over the longer term, -AO(+AO) depending on which. We have had a +AO the majority of the winter, which hate to say ... fits the QBO. I believe that is correct. I just looked at QBO numbers and indeed that does fit the notion for a +AO. (Also the zonal wind map posted verifies +QBO). I do remember reading some outlooks talking about the QBO descending to easterly...so many that didn't happen as thought? Or there is a (mis)conception that it becoming less positive over time would favor blocking...lol...like a weenie wish cast (ohhh yeah the QBO is westerly...but it's becoming less westerly so blocking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: what's 500 look like? Just judging from that but looks like a gradient-type pattern could setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 that's not terrible. I see what you mean though about after the first week of February. That's quite the significant change. Now...whether that is valid remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 49 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Awful...Unless you're Dr. Dews. He feeds on anything opposite of snow and cold, so at least one person likes that look. He may not be the only one; he has several limited post brethren in the NYC Metro forum. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: that's not terrible. I see what you mean though about after the first week of February. That's quite the significant change. Now...whether that is valid remains to be seen. Yeah it could easily not verify....the last big change failed of course. But if it did verify, that's pretty big cold for the northern tier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Those are the days I am happy to be 100 miles inland in a valley and 20° warmer than Boston. It's called May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Certainly a few interesting members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Lots of misses, some hits. Going to want to see some OP movement as we move closer here.... ensembles are great until they aren’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I believe that is correct. I just looked at QBO numbers and indeed that does fit the notion for a +AO. (Also the zonal wind map posted verifies +QBO). I do remember reading some outlooks talking about the QBO descending to easterly...so many that didn't happen as thought? Or there is a (mis)conception that it becoming less positive over time would favor blocking...lol...like a weenie wish cast (ohhh yeah the QBO is westerly...but it's becoming less westerly so blocking) I estimated that the descenion of the easterly QBO wave would take place by about February, which represents one factor contributing to an overall less hostile environment for blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I estimated that the descenion of the easterly QBO wave would take place by about February, which represents one factor contributing to an overall less hostile environment for blocking. Nice...good call. Seems like that's exactly what is happening. I think I've read around some saying this happening earlier in winter...unless I completely misread. Hell maybe we'll have a blockbuster March...not totally unrealistic and it happened as recently as two years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Judging by hour 84... icon ain’t going to get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Nice...good call. Seems like that's exactly what is happening. I think I've read around some saying this happening earlier in winter...unless I completely misread. Hell maybe we'll have a blockbuster March...not totally unrealistic and it happened as recently as two years ago how exciting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Two observations regarding the 12z EPS. 1) Mean is about 100mi east of the BM 2) Most of the spread is SW and slower, with not much NE and faster Interpret that information as you will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Judging by hour 84... icon ain’t going to get it done scrapper.. maybe the outer cape does ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Judging by hour 84... icon ain’t going to get it done We won't cancel because it whiffs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: how exciting I would take it. I don't have the whole snowpack fetish so I'm completely fine with getting pounded with snow and then having it go away in a few days. When snow starts piling up it leads to more hassle than it's worth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Two observations regarding the 12z EPS. 1) Mean is about 100mi east of the BM 2) Most of the spread is SW and slower, with not much NE and faster Interpret that information as you will. Next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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