It's Always Sunny Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Not surprised GFS op is east GEFS has kept it east past few runs. One thing I am concerned about is the lack of spread amongst H5 around 12Z on February 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Que the sad trumpet - 50 pages for the sole intent of ... wah wah wahhhhhhh. Who started the thread - that's gotta be why! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We don't what is or isn't in the cards yet. Getting a better idea though. Flags are flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Que the sad trumpet - 50 pages for the sole intent of ... wah wah wahhhhhhh. Who started the thread - that's gotta be why! Tip if you have a problem, we can meet outside the back door of the bar. bada bing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Getting a better idea though. Flags are flying Absolutely, but an abrupt about face is within the real of plausibility for about 24-48 more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like a scraper on GEM. It’s an improvement over 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Tip if you have a problem, we can meet outside the back door of the bar. bada bing Hit him over the head with a Hadley Cell, the force him to read one of his posts from start finish. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 GGEM actually looks reasonably similar to the NAM at 78 hours... NAM has more deep south trough expression though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Tip if you have a problem, we can meet outside the back door of the bar. bada bing Lol... Commiseration for the loss - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hit him over the head with a Hadley Cell, the force him to read one of his posts from start finish. There it is! Stage anger of post mortem 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 This has sped up too which isn’t a good thing if you want the main northern stream energy to dive in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Oh, okay - the GGEM at 84 hours looks interesting and suggestive, but it appears to blow its load in the SE with that southern mid level wind max and that runs out the B-clinic instability and strands the deeper trough from being able to do much. Yeah...'nother zample of too much fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 GFS does look like a potentially good setup for severe in the south around 180-hours! No strong EML signals but some EML air may make the ride from Mexico 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Holy tomato...200+ knot ULJ over the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12z GFS is exit stage right with the Day 4 & Day 11 system. We on to spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 This is kind of a bad time to be heading in the wrong direction IMO... lots of spread still obviously.... but trend isn’t your friend. Discouraging start to 12z here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 WOAHHHHHHHH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: WOAHHHHHHHH Where are the tissues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: GFS does look like a potentially good setup for severe in the south around 180-hours! No strong EML signals but some EML air may make the ride from Mexico Dude...come on. Go tickle yourself in all the right places in your May 1st countdown. Nobody cares about a lightning strike in Mobile when we are scratching and clawing for a few inches of snow during peak winter climo. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s an improvement over 0z Barely.....not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Where are the tissues Gonna need a box of tissues for that jet streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is kind of a bad time to be heading in the wrong direction IMO... lots of spread still obviously.... but trend isn’t your friend. Discouraging start to 12z here Speed/progressive flow has always been a big issue with this one. It's why I was skeptical of the hugger solutions yesterday. But this still has room to be a good storm...GFS trended poorly, but GEM got better...they are similar skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 you might not want to look at the GEFS if your on the ledge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is kind of a bad time to be heading in the wrong direction IMO... lots of spread still obviously.... but trend isn’t your friend. Discouraging start to 12z here I’m sure the gefs will follow suit going SE but you guys are in the realm of a slight nw shift for impact. West folks, AIT for days, will have a much harder time pulling this closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where are the tissues more like towels 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Dude...come on. Go tickle yourself in all the right places in your May 1st countdown. Nobody cares about a lightning strike in Mobile when we are scratching and clawing for a few inches of snow during peak winter climo. Funny thing is...unlike all these fake snow threats everyone drools over the severe wx threat will likely verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Funny thing is...unlike all these fake snow threats everyone drools over the severe wx threat will likely verify. Not anywhere near here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: more like towels Funny thing is...unlike all these fake snow threats everyone drools over the severe wx threat will likely verify. OK then go into the southeast forum and discuss it there with them. We live in NewEng. If there was a severe chance this weekend HERE, then fine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not anywhere near here. several more months! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: more like towels Funny thing is...unlike all these fake snow threats everyone drools over the severe wx threat will likely verify. Yea, in Alabama....snow verifies much more here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, in Alabama....snow verifies much more here. Its the equivalent of posting in the southeast forum about New England snow threats. I'm sure they'd take that pretty well. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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