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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What is pretty certain by this point (with further strengthening from ensemble support) is this is going to be a pretty intense system. But agreed...the NAM (even though we're taking 84-hours) is a rather potent look. Much more compact and intense with the vorticity whereas the GFS is more hung back and not nearly as defined with the trough. I was also look at that jet streak over the ridge arc...that is certainly going to be a factor. 

Not to be confusing... 

I actually don't know if that's the case.  I've been intimating for days that this could if perhaps 'should' be middling.  

Problem is storm interpretation ( potentially ..) Namely, if it does gulp in huge PWAT air down south...that could 'over-achieve' as it were relative to cyclone kinematics.  But it won't necessarily be "intense" as a system.  

Again, the NAM's solution would offer an intense result by extrapolation/combing theoretics and so forth.. But, the larger system concerns are still there when thinking out side the NAM's illusory bubble.  The flow speeding up over all doesn't lend to the NAM exquisite timing... and the physical plausibility of some of these recent runs, where the cyclone has in fact trended less polished ..fits that.  So mmm, I could see it still being a middling low with a big QPF plume type deal.  Miller-A's have there bag of headaches. 

The 12z GFS too -

This might be the most glaring red-herring system we've channeled hopes and dreams over yet this season.  We're not considering the canvased limitations of fast flow and not expecting to have to correct these juggernaut late mid range systems nearly enough.  

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be confusing... 

I actually don't know if that's the case.  I've been intimating for days that this could if perhaps 'should' be middling.  

Problem is storm interpretation ( potentially ..) Namely, if it does gulp in huge PWAT air down south...that could 'over-achieve' as it were relative to cyclone kinematics.  But it won't necessarily be "intense" as a system.  

Again, the NAM's solution would offer an intense result by extrapolation/combing theoretics and so forth.. But, the larger system concerns are still there when thinking out side the NAM's illusory bubble.  The flow speeding up over all doesn't lend to the NAM exquisite timing... and the physical plausibility of some of these recent runs, where the cyclone has in fact trended less polished ..fits that.  So mmm, I could see it still being a middling low with a big QPF plume type deal.  Miller-A's have there bag of headaches. 

The 12z GFS too -

This might be the most glaring red-herring system we've channeled hopes and dreams over yet this season.  We're not considering the canvased limitations of fast flow and not expecting to have to correct these juggernaut late mid range systems nearly enough.  

That's an excellent point. 

Combine a fast flow with numerous pieces and it's nothing but chaotic hell with solutions which range from OTS to roof crushing snows. 

But to your initial point...I get what you're saying...and actually given the fast flow and room for phasing not to happen...well an intense system is not as certain. 

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too many turds in the punch bowl....leaving a lot of that SW US "energy" behind and the northern stream just isn't digging like it was in previous days. Looks pretty progressive with everything flying east as that EPAC jet starts to surge into western NAMER.

exactly, and that has been obvious for days.  these situations rarely turn out well despite some model porn.  that being said there's probably a 10-20% chance for a lucky timing thing but I doubt it.  Looking forward to it getting colder next week, getting some confluence and blocking above, even if not perfect, and it will snow.  But this weekend is sht for most except the maritimes as the basic seasonal pattern continues and winter won't quite set in.

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I just set the panel on 96 hours over at TT then clicked Prev on the  GFS's 500 mb product some ten clicks and of that many previous cycles ... looks like 7 or 8 were clearly trending toward storm-fan doom.   

Awesome.  Now, ...if somehow this thing comes to pass...then you can really have something to knock the model for.  But maybe this system's destiny is written on the wall, and the GFS will never get any credit - in fact, the opposite in this Lord of the Flies court of public opinion.  

haha.  All this f'n p.o.s. model needs to do is nail one bomb and the world is its oyster - what a red-headed step kid. 

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