SouthCoastMA Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 To my amateur eyes, ridging looks worse through 84 hours.. so I'm not confident it's going to be a good solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 GFS further SE at 12z....6z trend continues at 12z it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Good bye and good luck on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Well that's an ass suck solution. Lets see what else can suck ass. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: To my amateur eyes, ridging looks worse through 84 hours.. so I'm not confident it's going to be a good solution. Everything is more progressive...the whole longwave pattern is a bit east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I have just signed back up for Ryan Maue's site. Folks, it's time for snow. Subscription canceled 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: GFS further SE at 12z....6z trend continues at 12z it seems Still close to watch The energy associated with this storm is not even in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 It left a piece of energy that ended up in the Baja region, looks like the Euro now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What is pretty certain by this point (with further strengthening from ensemble support) is this is going to be a pretty intense system. But agreed...the NAM (even though we're taking 84-hours) is a rather potent look. Much more compact and intense with the vorticity whereas the GFS is more hung back and not nearly as defined with the trough. I was also look at that jet streak over the ridge arc...that is certainly going to be a factor. Not to be confusing... I actually don't know if that's the case. I've been intimating for days that this could if perhaps 'should' be middling. Problem is storm interpretation ( potentially ..) Namely, if it does gulp in huge PWAT air down south...that could 'over-achieve' as it were relative to cyclone kinematics. But it won't necessarily be "intense" as a system. Again, the NAM's solution would offer an intense result by extrapolation/combing theoretics and so forth.. But, the larger system concerns are still there when thinking out side the NAM's illusory bubble. The flow speeding up over all doesn't lend to the NAM exquisite timing... and the physical plausibility of some of these recent runs, where the cyclone has in fact trended less polished ..fits that. So mmm, I could see it still being a middling low with a big QPF plume type deal. Miller-A's have there bag of headaches. The 12z GFS too - This might be the most glaring red-herring system we've channeled hopes and dreams over yet this season. We're not considering the canvased limitations of fast flow and not expecting to have to correct these juggernaut late mid range systems nearly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well that's an ass suck solution. Lets see what else can suck ass. Lets do a repeat of Jan 7-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 come on, this is going to be our usual fast flow shortwave abundant disaster. Congrats Nick. Nobody to the west of Eastport should be excited unless something shows up overnight Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Congrats RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Didn’t mind it being OTS a few days ago, especially since it was starting to trend west. But now we are trending East again inside 100 hours? Yikes. Maybe the fantasy blizzard on the 6z GFS that absolutely won’t happen will still be there at least. Fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Too many turds in the punch bowl....leaving a lot of that SW US "energy" behind and the northern stream just isn't digging like it was in previous days. Looks pretty progressive with everything flying east as that EPAC jet starts to surge into western NAMER. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 So the way things are going, we are setting up a 1-2 weeks worth of winter before we go back to what we had from December 17ish until now? Yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Everything is more progressive...the whole longwave pattern is a bit east. Ray is happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Ray is happy Everyone should be happy its east instead of a cutter. Easier to trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Ray is happier than he would have been with a track over Brooklyn. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 The pattern is such a clusterf*ck. We really need two more days. But the look isn't that encouraging. Would feel better if ensembles make a trend back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to be confusing... I actually don't know if that's the case. I've been intimating for days that this could if perhaps 'should' be middling. Problem is storm interpretation ( potentially ..) Namely, if it does gulp in huge PWAT air down south...that could 'over-achieve' as it were relative to cyclone kinematics. But it won't necessarily be "intense" as a system. Again, the NAM's solution would offer an intense result by extrapolation/combing theoretics and so forth.. But, the larger system concerns are still there when thinking out side the NAM's illusory bubble. The flow speeding up over all doesn't lend to the NAM exquisite timing... and the physical plausibility of some of these recent runs, where the cyclone has in fact trended less polished ..fits that. So mmm, I could see it still being a middling low with a big QPF plume type deal. Miller-A's have there bag of headaches. The 12z GFS too - This might be the most glaring red-herring system we've channeled hopes and dreams over yet this season. We're not considering the canvased limitations of fast flow and not expecting to have to correct these juggernaut late mid range systems nearly enough. That's an excellent point. Combine a fast flow with numerous pieces and it's nothing but chaotic hell with solutions which range from OTS to roof crushing snows. But to your initial point...I get what you're saying...and actually given the fast flow and room for phasing not to happen...well an intense system is not as certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 That’s a pretty large shift se on the gfs... nothing burger even here. Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 GEM looks quite a bit more amped through 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well that's an ass suck solution. Lets see what else can suck ass. laugh out loud literally .. This is how you grouse people - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yep. That hasn't been in the cards for quite a few cycles. Hazey kind of winter on the GFS. Last minute save hopefully. We will know Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Too many turds in the punch bowl....leaving a lot of that SW US "energy" behind and the northern stream just isn't digging like it was in previous days. Looks pretty progressive with everything flying east as that EPAC jet starts to surge into western NAMER. exactly, and that has been obvious for days. these situations rarely turn out well despite some model porn. that being said there's probably a 10-20% chance for a lucky timing thing but I doubt it. Looking forward to it getting colder next week, getting some confluence and blocking above, even if not perfect, and it will snow. But this weekend is sht for most except the maritimes as the basic seasonal pattern continues and winter won't quite set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GEM looks quite a bit more amped through 90 hours. Round and round, we go. Either get on the weenie wagon or get left behind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Maybe we can make lemonade with this lemon fresh storm - 50/50 block so we can lock in the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Looks like a scraper on GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That hasn't been in the cards for quite a few cycles. Hazey kind of winter on the GFS. Last minute save hopefully. We will know Wednesday We don't what is or isn't in the cards yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I just set the panel on 96 hours over at TT then clicked Prev on the GFS's 500 mb product some ten clicks and of that many previous cycles ... looks like 7 or 8 were clearly trending toward storm-fan doom. Awesome. Now, ...if somehow this thing comes to pass...then you can really have something to knock the model for. But maybe this system's destiny is written on the wall, and the GFS will never get any credit - in fact, the opposite in this Lord of the Flies court of public opinion. haha. All this f'n p.o.s. model needs to do is nail one bomb and the world is its oyster - what a red-headed step kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now