ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why are we talking 89?Doesn't the mid and LR look weenie? Yeah it looks good. They improved from 12z yesterday a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why are we talking 89?Doesn't the mid and LR look weenie? We have about a week of good but not liking how it ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Confusing and conflicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's going to be some shifting as the shortwaves get closer to shore and come onshore...and not the just the shortwaves, but other features like the jet streaks that are going to be pummeling the west coast and affecting the ridging, etc. It does seem like there is fairly good agreement about how the pattern evolves across the PAC and building of the ridge into the west. Significant differences then occur with how everything evolves downstream. One thing that's been in the back of my mind is how this system evolves in the southeast. Right now models aren't too enthused with the development of convection across the southeast or off the coast but if that were to change that could add to this shortwave mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Confusing and conflicting? I would say that the week from the 3rd to the 9th is when we would have the best chance and hope that SE ridge,negative PNA is transient after. Teleconnections are not that encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We have about a week of good but not liking how it ends BN heights out by Nick in NF. That doesn't necessarily get me thinking tulips and forsythia. Could be some confluence and a gradient type pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Icon late blooms east and gives eastern new england decent snows before hitting ns and central newfoundland hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: BN heights out by Nick in NF. That doesn't necessarily get me thinking tulips and forsythia. Could be some confluence and a gradient type pattern. That's a cold look in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Maybe this time as we relay off the Pacific ocean over land and into the more physically realized soundings ...we'll actually see that excuse pay off. I don't think it is as problematic as it was even as near by as 10 years ago...certainly, comparing the 10 years prior to that. In the 1990s, it was not that uncommon to see substantive systemic morphology down stream over eastern N/A upon nosing wave mechanics over the west. Now it just doesn't seem to cause that if at all, because of advances in assimilation and so forth. Satellite soundings are based on electromagnetic measurements and that seems on paper like it's hard to argue too... ha. I dunno - but the NAM's domain space's western edge cuts right through where this thing's partial mechanics were just entering over the open Pacific over night .. It's got it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Also remember, not a good weather model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: BN heights out by Nick in NF. That doesn't necessarily get me thinking tulips and forsythia. Could be some confluence and a gradient type pattern. Yea not a torch but not a weenie look. It is winter after all just not a pattern that screams big deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Also remember, not a good weather model. That's a solid 6-10" here. Long ways to go but getting there slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Hazey said: That's a solid 6-10" here. Long ways to go but getting there slowly. It's like 1.25 to 1.5" of qpf. It's more than that verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Also remember, not a good weather model. Inclined to disagree ... the model explicitly lays out 12 to 17" of snow into the craws of the starving beleaguered, it's a great model. Kind of like anyone that uses the word snow in here writes at a literary acumen that Shakespeare might be jealous over - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12z icon looks pretty good... especially East... I think many would sign for that... prob like 6-10” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Also remember, not a good weather model. Last I saw it still out scored the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Last I saw it still out scored the GFS Hmm I havent seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Plus I wouldn't call the gfs a good weather model either. Canadians have icon outperforming gfs at 24 h and on par at 120 h at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Plus I wouldn't call the gfs a good weather model either. Canadians have icon outperforming gfs at 24 h and on par at 120 h at 500. Icon has been pretty good around here this winter anecdotally for sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It does seem like there is fairly good agreement about how the pattern evolves across the PAC and building of the ridge into the west. Significant differences then occur with how everything evolves downstream. One thing that's been in the back of my mind is how this system evolves in the southeast. Right now models aren't too enthused with the development of convection across the southeast or off the coast but if that were to change that could add to this shortwave mess. That is critical... really, that's the weight on the dice as far as how things roll out/parlay and come together downstream, ..or not. I mentioned earlier, the speed of the flow makes the standard model of ridge pop lending to constructive feed-back downstream and amplitude into the TV ~ longitudes, have problems. The fastness, it's ablating the ridge's Nward extend post the polar stream trough ejection across sw Canda, and that 'transitively' then lends to less wave space feedback potential - it's really how the speed interferes as a destructive - that said, if large scale forcing were to just get stronger, the ridge will grow anyway, and then we get that feedback regardless. I was just looking at the NAM's la-la range ( ...pretty much anything beyond 10 minutes out in time for other reasons...), and it really has an unavoidable bomb on the eastern seaboard set up. That systme approaching the western TV Valley is doing so over a lower latitude relaxed region, where the heights are compressible, such that it won't be absorbed by said velocity/shearing effects... That makes the set up prone to subsume phasing... even if only partial, that would kick back positively and cause that extrapolation to go nuts. The subsumer? Look over lower Manitoba at 84 hours, and you have two wind flags of 100 kts over a ridge arc, moving at theta across the isohypses up there. That's code for one mother-fer of a powerful polar stream S/W that's partially concealed only by the fact that it is in that position and is thus less identifiable. But when that wind max comes careen down the Minnesota slide, you'll see that dive into the - by then - eastern TV vestigial wave and ...well...that's the mating dance. Unfortunately...just as concealed by this lofty prose is the fact that we are still talking about the NAM - so... it's 84 hour depiction is probably used toilet paper in the first placed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Old run...06z was solidly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: We're on to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Old run...06z was solidly east Just now, Ginx snewx said: We're on to 6z I do not believe in the off model runs. *hides* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 I have just signed back up for Ryan Maue's site. Folks, it's time for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: I do not believe in the off model runs. *hides* We will welcome you with open arms when you are ready to leave 2005 behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We will welcome you with open arms when you are ready to leave 2005 behind. Is this easteruswx.com?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That is critical... really, that's the weight on the dice as far as how things parlay and come together ...or don't. I mentioned earlier, the speed of the flow makes the standard model of ridge pop lending to constructive feed-back downstream and amplitude into the TV ~ longitudes. The fastness, it's ablating the ridge's Nward extend post the polar stream trough ejection across sw Canda, and that 'transitively' then lends to less wave space feedback potential - it's really how the speed interferes as a destructive - that said, if large scale forcing just get stronger, the ridge will grow, and then we get that feedback regardless. I was just looking at the NAM's la-la range ( ...pretty much anything beyond 10 minutes out in time for other reasons...), and it really has an unavoidable bomb on the eastern seaboard set up. That systme approaching the western TV Valley is doing so over a lower latitude relaxed region, where the heights are compressible, such that it won't be absorbed by said velocity/shearing effects... That makes the set up prone to subsume phasing... even if only partial, that would kick back positively and cause that extrapolation to go nuts. The subsumer? Look over lower Manitoba at 84 hours, and you have two wind flags of 100 kts over a ridge arc, moving at theta across the isohypses of there. That's code for one mother-fer of a powerful polar stream S/W that's partially concealed only by the fact that it is in that position and is thus less identifiable. But when that wind max comes careen down the Minnesota slide, you'll see that dive into the - by then - eastern TV vestigial wave and ...well...that's the mating dance. Unfortunately...just as concealed by this lofty prose is the fact that we are still talking about the NAM - so... it's 84 hour depiction is probably used toilet paper in the first placed What is pretty certain by this point (with further strengthening from ensemble support) is this is going to be a pretty intense system. But agreed...the NAM (even though we're taking 84-hours) is a rather potent look. Much more compact and intense with the vorticity whereas the GFS is more hung back and not nearly as defined with the trough. I was also look at that jet streak over the ridge arc...that is certainly going to be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12z GFS looks like it's going to be east of 06z. Might even whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12z GFS looks a little flat, Think this will end up east of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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