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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's going to be some shifting as the shortwaves get closer to shore and come onshore...and not the just the shortwaves, but other features like the jet streaks that are going to be pummeling the west coast and affecting the ridging, etc.

 

It does seem like there is fairly good agreement about how the pattern evolves across the PAC and building of the ridge into the west. Significant differences then occur with how everything evolves downstream. One thing that's been in the back of my mind is how this system evolves in the southeast. Right now models aren't too enthused with the development of convection across the southeast or off the coast but if that were to change that could add to this shortwave mess. 

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Maybe this time as we relay off the Pacific ocean over land and into the more physically realized soundings ...we'll actually see that excuse pay off. 

I don't think it is as problematic as it was even as near by as 10 years ago...certainly, comparing the 10 years prior to that.  In the 1990s, it was not that uncommon to see substantive systemic morphology down stream over eastern N/A upon nosing wave mechanics over the west.  Now it just doesn't seem to cause that if at all, because of advances in assimilation and so forth. Satellite soundings are based on electromagnetic measurements and that seems on paper like it's hard to argue too... ha.  I dunno - but the NAM's domain space's western edge cuts right through where this thing's partial mechanics were just entering over the open Pacific over night .. It's got it now.   

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Also remember, not a good weather model.

 

 

Inclined to disagree ... the model explicitly lays out 12 to 17" of snow into the craws of the starving beleaguered, it's a great model.

Kind of like anyone that uses the word snow in here writes at a literary acumen that Shakespeare might be jealous over -

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31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It does seem like there is fairly good agreement about how the pattern evolves across the PAC and building of the ridge into the west. Significant differences then occur with how everything evolves downstream. One thing that's been in the back of my mind is how this system evolves in the southeast. Right now models aren't too enthused with the development of convection across the southeast or off the coast but if that were to change that could add to this shortwave mess. 

That is critical... really, that's the weight on the dice as far as how things roll out/parlay and come together downstream, ..or not.  

I mentioned earlier, the speed of the flow makes the standard model of ridge pop lending to constructive feed-back downstream and amplitude into the TV ~ longitudes, have problems.  The fastness, it's ablating the ridge's Nward extend post the polar stream trough ejection across sw Canda, and that 'transitively' then lends to less wave space feedback potential - it's really how the speed interferes as a destructive -  that said, if large scale forcing were to just get stronger, the ridge will grow anyway, and then we get that feedback regardless.  

I was just looking at the NAM's la-la range ( ...pretty much anything beyond 10 minutes  out in time for other reasons...), and it really has an unavoidable bomb on the eastern seaboard set up.  That systme approaching the western TV Valley is doing so over a lower latitude relaxed region, where the heights are compressible, such that it won't be absorbed by said velocity/shearing effects... That makes the set up prone to subsume phasing... even if only partial, that would kick back positively and cause that extrapolation to go nuts.  The subsumer? Look over lower Manitoba at 84 hours, and you have two wind flags of 100 kts over a ridge arc, moving at theta across the isohypses up there. That's code for one mother-fer of a powerful polar stream S/W that's partially concealed only by the fact that it is in that position and is thus less identifiable. But when that wind max comes careen down the Minnesota slide, you'll see that dive into the - by then - eastern TV vestigial wave and ...well...that's the mating dance. 

Unfortunately...just as concealed by this lofty prose is the fact that we are still talking about the NAM - so... it's 84 hour depiction is probably used toilet paper in the first placed

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That is critical... really, that's the weight on the dice as far as how things parlay and come together ...or don't.  

I mentioned earlier, the speed of the flow makes the standard model of ridge pop lending to constructive feed-back downstream and amplitude into the TV ~ longitudes.  The fastness, it's ablating the ridge's Nward extend post the polar stream trough ejection across sw Canda, and that 'transitively' then lends to less wave space feedback potential - it's really how the speed interferes as a destructive -  that said, if large scale forcing just get stronger, the ridge will grow, and then we get that feedback regardless.  

I was just looking at the NAM's la-la range ( ...pretty much anything beyond 10 minutes  out in time for other reasons...), and it really has an unavoidable bomb on the eastern seaboard set up.  That systme approaching the western TV Valley is doing so over a lower latitude relaxed region, where the heights are compressible, such that it won't be absorbed by said velocity/shearing effects... That makes the set up prone to subsume phasing... even if only partial, that would kick back positively and cause that extrapolation to go nuts.  The subsumer? Look over lower Manitoba at 84 hours, and you have two wind flags of 100 kts over a ridge arc, moving at theta across the isohypses of there. That's code for one mother-fer of a powerful polar stream S/W that's partially concealed only by the fact that it is in that position and is thus less identifiable. But when that wind max comes careen down the Minnesota slide, you'll see that dive into the - by then - eastern TV vestigial wave and ...well...that's the mating dance. 

Unfortunately...just as concealed by this lofty prose is the fact that we are still talking about the NAM - so... it's 84 hour depiction is probably used toilet paper in the first placed

What is pretty certain by this point (with further strengthening from ensemble support) is this is going to be a pretty intense system. But agreed...the NAM (even though we're taking 84-hours) is a rather potent look. Much more compact and intense with the vorticity whereas the GFS is more hung back and not nearly as defined with the trough. I was also look at that jet streak over the ridge arc...that is certainly going to be a factor. 

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