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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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7 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I still think putting stock in the ens more than the ops is the way to lean at this point regardless of what model you look at.  You know how much op models flip flop

It’s def about the ensembles right now. Especially with all those shortwaves trying to interact. Using OP runs at this stage will make you mad. 

 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

I already said that yesterday, after somebody said it will last 24 hrs. 8-12 hrs if it comes at all. 

First flakes to last flakes could be 18+ but the real snow is definitely shorter than that. 

Which is fine. We’ve had plenty of big storms that were 12 hour jobs. 

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah... I never thought that was a question. That doesn’t mean someone won’t get 18” of snow if things break right.

We’ve had plenty of goodies that were 12 hour storms. Last March is an example...heck, 3/14/18 was basically a 12 hour job. 1/27/11 and 2/5/01 were fast movers too. If you get ripping dynamics, you can get crushed in a 10-12 hour storm. 

Of course, let’s first get this to a point where we are confident of a hit. This could definitely still whiff as the euro eloquently shows us. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve had plenty of goodies that were 12 hour storms. Last March is an example...heck, 3/14/18 was basically a 12 hour job. 1/27/11 and 2/5/01 were fast movers too. If you get ripping dynamics, you can get crushed in a 10-12 hour storm. 

Of course, let’s first get this to a point where we are confident of a hit. This could definitely still whiff as the euro eloquently shows us. 

Feb 06 half my snow totals fell in about 3-hours (13'' out of 26 or 27). 2013 too...like 14'' or 15'' in 3 hours or 4 hours. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

First flakes to last flakes could be 18+ but the real snow is definitely shorter than that. 

Which is fine. We’ve had plenty of big storms that were 12 hour jobs.

Firehouse special in March 2013.  For the meat that is.  A lot of preliminary but a hellacious 9 hour thump.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve had plenty of goodies that were 12 hour storms. Last March is an example...heck, 3/14/18 was basically a 12 hour job. 1/27/11 and 2/5/01 were fast movers too. If you get ripping dynamics, you can get crushed in a 10-12 hour storm. 

Of course, let’s first get this to a point where we are confident of a hit. This could definitely still whiff as the euro eloquently shows us. 

Yeah... fast moving won’t be a hinderance to big snow totals if it’s a dynamic storm.

Hopefully we can get some clarity in the next 24-36 hours 

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Mar 4-6 2001 was the slowest mover i think i've ever seen. Nearly 60hrs. Would love another one of those demons, and have it all snow this time.

As far as the UKMET, the snow maps are awful. It appears its counting anything above 0C at the surface as rain. My location is just barely above 0C at the surface (bottom 25mb or so) and the rest of the column is below and another 0.35 falls after that, so id have to say we at least get several inches but the snow map is showing near zero.

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