CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: So we need a phase , is there any sense of even boot leg blocking to make this more than thread the needle timing for phase if not, sell hard..and lean progressive It's definitely going to be progressive no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I still think putting stock in the ens more than the ops is the way to lean at this point regardless of what model you look at. You know how much op models flip flop It’s def about the ensembles right now. Especially with all those shortwaves trying to interact. Using OP runs at this stage will make you mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's definitely going to be progressive no matter what. Yep. This one ain’t sticking around for 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yep. This one ain’t sticking around for 24 hours. I already said that yesterday, after somebody said it will last 24 hrs. 8-12 hrs if it comes at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's definitely going to be progressive no matter what. Yeah... I never thought that was a question. That doesn’t mean someone won’t get 18” of snow if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: I already said that yesterday, after somebody said it will last 24 hrs. 8-12 hrs if it comes at all. First flakes to last flakes could be 18+ but the real snow is definitely shorter than that. Which is fine. We’ve had plenty of big storms that were 12 hour jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... I never thought that was a question. That doesn’t mean someone won’t get 18” of snow if things break right. As long as its at least 8” I’d be satisfied. This winter hasn’t been eager to produce around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... I never thought that was a question. That doesn’t mean someone won’t get 18” of snow if things break right. We’ve had plenty of goodies that were 12 hour storms. Last March is an example...heck, 3/14/18 was basically a 12 hour job. 1/27/11 and 2/5/01 were fast movers too. If you get ripping dynamics, you can get crushed in a 10-12 hour storm. Of course, let’s first get this to a point where we are confident of a hit. This could definitely still whiff as the euro eloquently shows us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Bomb cyclone was pretty fast too. Back in Jan 18. Not saying those are comparable, but we've had plenty of quick blitzes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I actually think the 6z Icon run is a pretty realistic outcome for this storm (if there is a slight phase that occurs). A quick hitting 6-10 inch storm for many in CNE/SNE. And I would be perfectly fine with that most winters, especially this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We’ve had plenty of goodies that were 12 hour storms. Last March is an example...heck, 3/14/18 was basically a 12 hour job. 1/27/11 and 2/5/01 were fast movers too. If you get ripping dynamics, you can get crushed in a 10-12 hour storm. Of course, let’s first get this to a point where we are confident of a hit. This could definitely still whiff as the euro eloquently shows us. Feb 06 half my snow totals fell in about 3-hours (13'' out of 26 or 27). 2013 too...like 14'' or 15'' in 3 hours or 4 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: First flakes to last flakes could be 18+ but the real snow is definitely shorter than that. Which is fine. We’ve had plenty of big storms that were 12 hour jobs. Firehouse special in March 2013. For the meat that is. A lot of preliminary but a hellacious 9 hour thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We’ve had plenty of goodies that were 12 hour storms. Last March is an example...heck, 3/14/18 was basically a 12 hour job. 1/27/11 and 2/5/01 were fast movers too. If you get ripping dynamics, you can get crushed in a 10-12 hour storm. Of course, let’s first get this to a point where we are confident of a hit. This could definitely still whiff as the euro eloquently shows us. Yeah... fast moving won’t be a hinderance to big snow totals if it’s a dynamic storm. Hopefully we can get some clarity in the next 24-36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just basing off of the look @H5 on the 06z Euro that only went to hr 90, It looked like it may have been better at the surface and could have ended up a few tics west of where the 0z Euro was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Long duration slow movers are rare. Early Dec was special for CNE, in that regards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's definitely going to be progressive no matter what. That’s why I am very skeptical...lots of shortwavesa, fast flow = low chances for many. I am optimistic though feb7-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Firehouse special in March 2013. For the meat that is. A lot of preliminary but a hellacious 9 hour thump. I remember that storm....lots of blown forecasts with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I remember that storm....lots of blown forecasts with that one. Yeah Pete Bouchard blew that one badly in the Boston area as I recall. Forecasted a slushy inch, wound up close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Long duration slow movers are rare. Early Dec was special for CNE, in that regards. Those are special and they put up the numbers in the history books Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 42 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I still think putting stock in the ens more than the ops is the way to lean at this point regardless of what model you look at. You know how much op models flip flop And EPS is a juicy lucy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Mar 4-6 2001 was the slowest mover i think i've ever seen. Nearly 60hrs. Would love another one of those demons, and have it all snow this time. As far as the UKMET, the snow maps are awful. It appears its counting anything above 0C at the surface as rain. My location is just barely above 0C at the surface (bottom 25mb or so) and the rest of the column is below and another 0.35 falls after that, so id have to say we at least get several inches but the snow map is showing near zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Yeah Pete Bouchard blew that one badly in the Boston area as I recall. Forecasted a slushy inch, wound up close to a foot. I believe that was a knee jerk forecast right after they went big and a storm before that did nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: And EPS is a juicy lucy For who is it juicy juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I remember that storm....lots of blown forecasts with that one. Not in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The individual EPS members are all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 0z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: For who is it juicy juicy Lucy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The individual EPS members are all over the place Typical this far out with Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah Pete Bouchard blew that one badly in the Boston area as I recall. Forecasted a slushy inch, wound up close to a foot. He had a terrible season forecasting-wise I just remember looking at his forecast with the same mindset of looking at the GEM 240 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Typical this far out with Miller A but it's not a good thing to see..it can not only skew the mean but pretty much make the mean useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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