40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 UK is a central NE jack form looking at H7.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 UK and its 2-2.5" of QPF is leaving something on the table, too....965mb with another SW on the outside looking in down in the mid atl....those have been trending closer. That solution is a rt 128-495 belt CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 Feb to Rememba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 That's pretty good consistency from the UK...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Keep in mind, eastern Mass is too warm on this because it can't resolve the CF properly...gradient would be tighter than this and closer to coast. same 12-18" as the GFS, just a hair nw. UK: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Euro is a complete and utter abomination of an abortion. I'm not sure Dr. Dews could have engineered a shittier solution from his humidor of a cave given those players on the field. Each of the several SWs spaced perfectly as to avoid interaction with surgical, maniacal precision. Its doing that inside of 120hrs, so if the EPS looks like shit, this event is in trouble imo...but I guess you could give it until Wed AM, when all players will be ashore. 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Is Nemo coming? That’s all I need to know....thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro is a complete and utter abomination of an abortion. I'm not sure Dr. Dews could have engineered a shittier solution from his humidor of a cave given those players on the field. Each of the several SWs spaced perfectly as to avoid interaction with surgical, maniacal precision. Its doing that inside of 120hrs, so if the EPS looks like shit, this event is in trouble imo...but I guess you could give it until Wed AM, when all players will be ashore. It's not too bad: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Eps is way better than the op Euro is once again lost like it has this whole winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Trends are showing an elongating Alaskan vortex followed by a poleward building PNA/EPO coupled ridge that produces a -Arctic Oscillation and this transition period will continue to freak out the model solutions in the next 24-36 hours and once the northern stream energy gets better sampled we will have a better idea of the kind of phasing that is real. AS a building WEST CONUS ridge continues eastward, this should push the storm track towards the BM or just east of it. I don't think an inland runner is going to be the final track, again not certain, but the way it appears right now that is what it seems like. Oh I wasn't saying the NAVGEM was right last night. My point was that if the storm deepens below 975mb before reaching the 40N latitude, the cold air will be present unless the track is west like over CHH. However, if the storm tracks over the BM instead below 975mb than cold air should be abundant. Also for those worried about the amount of QPF, this should continue to trend towards a bigger QPF event. Originating in the Gulf of Mexico, plenty of moisture should be present and the models should slow the movement of the low down as we head towards closing in on the weekend period. The 12z GFS was only 13 hours of duration for the precip, while the 00z GFS was 18 hours in duration, this should trend towards a longer duration in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Eps with many huggers. Euro op is lol tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 hours ago, ice1972 said: Is Nemo coming? That’s all I need to know....thank you For you...we found him. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are we looking at 1-3’ in SNE? We are talking...a solid... 1 to 3 feet of snow. Here's...the demon. Here's...the demon. Rival the blizzard of '78. Even stronger. We're gonna whacked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The northern stream really needs to dig in and phase of the coast wants to see a big snowfall. If that doesnt happen then alot of people will see white rain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Eps is way better than the op Euro is once again lost like it has this whole winter. Double checking, looks like the op is just one of the ots EPS members. EPS has two distinct clusters, one along the BM or inside and way ots. Hypothetically speaking, if the ots cluster is specious then the mean practically sits on Jimmy’s face, exactly like the UK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Double checking, looks like the op is just one of the ots EPS members. EPS has two distinct clusters, one along the BM or inside and way ots. Hypothetically speaking, if the ots cluster is specious then the mean practically sits on Jimmy’s face, exactly like the UK. We need a bombing low. Even the gfs isnt good for the coast. The coast and even just inland areas keep getting screwed. It has been a sad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 What is consistent is that along with the February 2 time frame that is being watched attention could shift to February 9 as the model keeps producing this low in several consecutive runs that seem to amp this storm that wants in most runs to bring a significant snowfall event to someone along the coast. It is still way too early and could wiff into the wind so easily that hearts in Boston might break especially with comical fantasy but hoped for those kind of amounts that would shutdown SE New England on a whim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Guidance is really all over, from a bomb to a whiff. I don't really have a feel either way at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ogmios said: What is consistent is that along with the February 2 time frame that is being watched attention could shift to February 9 as the model keeps producing this low in several consecutive runs that seem to amp this storm that wants in most runs to bring a significant snowfall event to someone along the coast. It is still way too early and could wiff into the wind so easily that hearts in Boston might break especially with comical fantasy but hoped for those kind of amounts that would shutdown SE New England on a whim. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We need a bombing low. Even the gfs isnt good for the coast. The coast and even just inland areas keep getting screwed. It has been a sad winter. Thats why NYC sucks for snow. Time to move. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Just not for eastern areas EMATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Thats why NYC sucks for snow. Time to move. Yes sir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Guidance is really all over, from a bomb to a whiff. I don't really have a feel either way at this point. Yesterday you said you didn’t want to jinx and felt it was coming for all of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 These acronyms and esoteric slang really annoy me, what does EMATT mean? btw you hit 13 weenies, that is probably a record now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yesterday you said you didn’t want to jinx and felt it was coming for all of the region Maybe I jinxed it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I said it had potential. Still feel that way. Tough to rule anything out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe I jinxed it? So now less confidence a day closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: So now less confidence a day closer? Never locked anything in. It was more for those posts from many thinking whiff yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Double checking, looks like the op is just one of the ots EPS members. EPS has two distinct clusters, one along the BM or inside and way ots. Hypothetically speaking, if the ots cluster is specious then the mean practically sits on Jimmy’s face, exactly like the UK. Of course, one can't discount a cluster as an outlier, especially when the clusters are relatively the same size. The magnitude of whiff on the OTC cluster is very broad, much more so than the other cluster. I'm not quite sure how to interpret that, but that suggests to me that there is a pretty large SD. In other words, don't toss the OP and let's keep watching to see if we get better agreement from the ensembles in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: These acronyms and esoteric slang really annoy me, what does EMATT mean? btw you hit 13 weenies, that is probably a record now lol. All eastern Massachusetts all the time. 6z GFS looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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