CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Here is 2015. At 50mb, it's more near and just north of Siberia...not so much in Canada or over Hudson Bay. However, as Tombo noted a few days ago, you can see a big ridge in AK and the elongation favorable for cold air delivery. You don't have to have the strat PV sitting in Canada. That 50mb look would be fine. Also note I am no expert...just sort of going by what makes sense to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Wait a week then check back. Models might have a better handle on it by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is messed up https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html I think looking at the H5 pattern is a better way to understand vs text values. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I mean, good luck trying to figure this out. Easy . . . it's a Jackson Pollock! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I would watch the February 5th timeframe for a big anafrontal snow event! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 i would watch February 2-3 period for a huge NYC Forum melt. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Here is 2015. At 50mb, it's more near and just north of Siberia...not so much in Canada or over Hudson Bay. However, as Tombo noted a few days ago, you can see a big ridge in AK and the elongation favorable for cold air delivery. You don't have to have the strat PV sitting in Canada. That 50mb look would be fine. Also note I am no expert...just sort of going by what makes sense to me. Placement of the warmest temperatures anomalies I think worked in our favor significantly as well: also the core of the westerlies surrounding the SPV were displaced towards the other side of the hemisphere But I think I am a little confused about something...this event in 2015 (since i don't remember off the top of my head is that referring to a strong PV or weakened PV? Based on what you posted and what i did I would assume the PV is pretty strong here (2015)...which is a good thing that it is displaced towards the other side of the globe. A strong PV displaced south into Canada would result in strong westerlies over the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 36 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I would watch the February 5th timeframe for a big anafrontal snow event! LOL...ya cuz that's so obvious. Did you just pull that out of your Arse or what??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: LOL...ya cuz that's so obvious. Did you just pull that out of your Arse or what??? We should also watch the June - September timeframe for a potential cold front that could spark t'storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think looking at the H5 pattern is a better way to understand vs text values. I took a peak at the GEFS 12z and I do like seeing troughing on the east coast, but the AK vortex is not budging and it looks as though the ridge over Hawaii returns. GEPS 0z was much better but I trust GEFS more and it's been the default pattern recently it seams (the Hawaii ridge especially) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We should also watch the June - September timeframe for a potential cold front that could spark t'storms LMAO...yes exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I took a peak at the GEFS 12z and I do like seeing troughing on the east coast, but the AK vortex is not budging and it looks as though the ridge over Hawaii returns. GEPS 0z was much better but I trust GEFS more and it's been the default pattern recently it seams (the Hawaii ridge especially) Noticed that too. that pig can rule the roost, but we shall see. I suspect a transient, less amplified trough if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Incoming on the EURO at hr204. Nice to look at at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 euro gonna be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Euro Op has the Feb 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Euro Op has the Feb 2nd storm. Epically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: euro gonna be fun There was a time where this would get me excited. Now as Kev says we toss all models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, Sn0waddict said: There was a time where this would get me excited. Now as Kev says we toss all models. I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range. We would wait until the Euro was inside 96 hrs then lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range. i'm not excited, but interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range. Then the stupid snow maps came along. There are people who will post total snowfall through 384-HR TO ILLUSTRATE WHAT TYPE OF PATTERN MAY BE....WTF???????? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range. *interested. may be a better word. But then jan 2015 happened lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Euro with a SB weekend missile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 wet system also on the euro, 2"+ on a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Well we all know what solution wont happen now....lol, why cant that show up inside of 48 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: wet system also on the euro, 2"+ on a wide area. Snowy wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: Well we all know what solution wont happen now....lol, why cant that show up inside of 48 hours! I know dude, one day it will...one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Snowy wet? Snowy white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Snowy wet? mabye. ., but the track is pretty close to the south coast of CT/RI so likely some issues with that track down south. on the other hand decent H5 track, would love to see that a little further south. I think we are almost ready to lock a solution.. lol jk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Snowy wet? 1.5 to 1.9 qpf white lol . If only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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