Sn0waddict Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 23 minutes ago, RDRY said: if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT. blows up and retrogades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 22 minutes ago, RDRY said: if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT. blows up and retrogades Sorry for the triple post , phone froze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Plenty of members west of the op Good stuff at d6. We can slowly back it in as the week progresses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is still solid this far out. Mean has decent precip in ern areas. Right where we want it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Plenty of members west of the op And more to the East... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is still solid this far out. Mean has decent precip in ern areas. Yea, def. lean east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, apm said: And more to the East... Only thing you could maybe get from that is there are a lot of strong members there minus the ones that escape OTS completely. If this tucks or goes near the BM then it should be a high impact storm (rain or snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Given the set up, I think this is a good look this far out. You guys who are hoping for a burial six days out in this set up, Are going to wind up saying congrats Syracuse. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 That's a pretty reasonable EPS look at this point...I think it tells us a lot in terms of the probabilities right now. You're prob looking at 40% odds or so of something close enough for eastern areas and less than that for western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, def. lean east. Yea, east is best here. I’d hedge late phase given the flow and abundance of sw’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, apm said: And more to the East... I will take anyone of those 968/970 lows just south of eastern Long Island please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, east is best here. I’d hedge late phase given the flow and abundance of sw’s. Saturday we will all be watching satellite loops, having early phase hallucinations, thinking the ots forecast is wrong....only to have the models in the end being correct even though it was soooo close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Eps a bit less weenieish 11-15 but looks good nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, apm said: And more to the East... Lot of lean way east and se there... almost feel like that’s the majority. However, the ones that do come pretty close are whoppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 I'm actually pretty pumped not to see any major storm signals in the long-range...seems like we do well when something pops up around the D5-6 timeframe instead of 240-hours out. But at the rate we're going...pretty soon the D11-15 period will be looking for 70's and 80's!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Saturday we will all be watching satellite loops, having early phase hallucinations, thinking the ots forecast is wrong....only to have the models in the end being correct even though it was soooo close... Yea. It will back in enough to give us an inch or two while sema folks tickle each other to a foot plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: This week in a nutshell. More like 3 hours and 43 minutes of paint drying and looping it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 River East for heaviest maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: River East for heaviest maybe? Could be 395 too....or 495. Or 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Could be 395 too....or 495. Or 95. Or congrats Adirondacks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lot of lean way east and se there... almost feel like that’s the majority. However, the ones that do come pretty close are whoppers The trend on the EPS since yesterday has been modestly east and much weaker. There were also of 940s alot of 950s yesterday, which are all like 965-970 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Could be 395 too....or 495. Or 95. Or buoy 23464 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Could be 395 too....or 495. Or 95. Or 287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Could be anything. Could be a complete Miss. Could be a weak POS with all these shortwaves all over and nothing congeals? Could be, Could be. Could be? I love how the East crowd automatically think it's gonna be east for easterners. If this Phases strong and Earlier...it'll be at the BM or a tad west of that I bet and a powerhouse. Obviously if it phases late then its off to the east, or a complete miss too. With all those S/W's in the flow...this has eons to go before we know anything of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The trend on the EPS since yesterday has been modestly east and much weaker. There were also of 940s alot of 950s yesterday, which are all like 965-970 now. Well to be fair...those 940's and 950's were not believable at all imo...and a 965 or 970 mb low is no weak storm by any stretch either...and much more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Could be anything. Could be a complete Miss. Could be a weak POS with all these shortwaves all over and nothing congeals? Could be, Could be. Could be? I love how the East crowd automatically think it's gonna be east for easterners. If this Phases strong and Earlier...it'll be at the BM or a tad west of that I bet and a powerhouse. Obviously if it phases late then its off to the east, or a complete miss too. With all those S/W's in the flow...this has eons to go before we know anything of significance. A storm near the BM or a tad west would still favor eastern and central areas. You need it tucked under LI to favor west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: A storm near the BM or a tad west would still favor eastern and central areas. You need it tucked under LI to favor west. A tad west of the BM works perfectly for my locale, and Bergs as well....far Western CT and Mass then under LI is better for them. I was speaking for my area is what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well to be fair...those 940's and 950's were not believable at all imo...and a 965 or 970 mb low is no weak storm by any stretch either...and much more realistic. Its rare, but not unheard of..January 2018 was like 954mb. Anyway, just objectivity noting the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its rare, but not unheard of..January 2018 was like 954mb. Anyway, just objectivity noting the trend. I understand..it's all good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 You definitely would rather be east than west at this point...the ensembles on all guidance show this. But it can obviously still change...that's just what the landscape looks like at day 6. If you hate uncertainty, then log off for 3 days and then check back in...the guidance will have a lot more confidence at day 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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