Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Hazey said: We're still 2-3 days before this is even gets picked up by the mesos and mid range models. That's an eternity. Everything on the table and everyone still in the game. Ride the ensembles for now. 945 over Nick's fanny with you in the cross hairs had to raise the weenie a bit this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it looked fine. Also, despite the solution verbatim, euro op was a hell of a lot different compared to 12z. Absurdly close with that polar SW and all hell breaking loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Yeah I don’t hate the look this morning. I’m just not that invested yet. It’s 6-7 days out. There are plenty of ensemble hits. Not a lot that go west and a lot of whiffs. Hoping for a bit of a NW trend isn’t the worst spot to be at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hazey said: We're still 2-3 days before this is even gets picked up by the mesos and mid range models. That's an eternity. Everything on the table and everyone still in the game. Ride the ensembles for now. I hope you get crushed with 40 cm of snow and blowing snow down Halifax, and I will be happy with 15-20 cm. So I will call it hoping for a Blizzard Warning the first in what? Three or four years? It has been awhile and quite honestly we are overdue for a storm of that caliber. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Some people need their snow fix continuously but theres definitely a lot of misses (and poof it’s gone or OTS or raln) when you watch a system for 9 days won’t be even looking till Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Some people need their snow fix continuously but theres definitely a lot of misses (and poof it’s gone or OTS or raln) when you watch a system for 9 days won’t be even looking till Wednesday You’ll give a little peak under the covers, don’t kid yourself. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’ll give a little peak under the covers, don’t kid yourself. I honestly don’t care much , ya ...it’s strange ...but I don’t prolly another marginal airmass , only thing I’m loosely following is the Chance of More promising long wave pattern after first week in February when u basically punt January it’s not a good year and if it is your climo sucks , and these are the posts nobody needs lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 How’s the 6z eps looking asking for Anthony 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 If it cones , hopefully it’s paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: If it cones , hopefully it’s paste Curious. Why paste? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Curious. Why paste? Damage and lasting power 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6Z looked good. Perhaps even a bit better than 00z looking at 500. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowEMass said: Exactly. Mid range whiffs typically produce better for our area when the time comes than mid range runners or cutters. I don't think there's anything different with respect to the modeled verifications. My sense is it's most likely due to a mid-range runner/cutter can still alter it's path from earlier modeling by a couple hundred miles and still deliver rain (or colder rain). That same variance on a snow event can result in whiff and rain and everything in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6Z looked good. Perhaps even a bit better than 00z looking at 500. Better ridge out west but surface didnt look that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Better ridge out west but surface didnt look that good. Members will skew that surface stuff. I'm not worried about verbatim output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Members will skew that surface stuff. I'm not worried about verbatim output. There are some hits all the way to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Better ridge out west but surface didnt look that good. We need that ridge pumping but also a quicker drop in of the N stream. Not concerned about the surface stuff yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 It's still early when you have this mess to figure out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6z icon only goes out to 120.... but it’s hard to see how that would be a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 6z icon only goes out to 120.... but it’s hard to see how that would be a miss Based on h5 that would be a huge hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's still early when you have this mess to figure out. You would think with 12 SWs, two of them would have to run into each other in a dark ally lol I want the northern stud breeding... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If it cones , hopefully it’s paste It should be...I was texting Will and scooter about that last evening....been awhile since I have had a crush job with cement. Last March wasn't huge where I am...like 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Are water temps in the Atlantic right now "normal" or will that be causing a different out come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It should be...I was texting Will and scooter about that last evening....been awhile since I have had a crush job with cement. Last March wasn't huge where I am...like 8". Agree. No need for powder that will start to melt faster than a Ginx AGW tirade begins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 32 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: It is going to be very difficult to achieve the type of storm we need to get snow with this 250mb jet just racing zonally. No way to bomb and turn up the coast. Took from another thread. Disclaimer - for discussion purposes only. This does not reflect my view or constitute "trolling". This should not be viewed as a measure to stoke a negative response from the audience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I don't think there's anything different with respect to the modeled verifications. My sense is it's most likely due to a mid-range runner/cutter can still alter it's path from earlier modeling by a couple hundred miles and still deliver rain (or colder rain). That same variance on a snow event can result in whiff and rain and everything in between. I meant in terms of producing snow. More frequently does a whiff come back to smack us with a SECS or greater than a runner/cutter finds a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Took from another thread. Disclaimer - for discussion purposes only. This does not reflect my view or constitute "trolling". This should not be viewed as a measure to stoke a negative response from the audience. Why are you pulling posts from a forum 500mi S of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: I meant in terms of producing snow. More frequently does a whiff come back to smack us with a SECS or greater than a runner/cutter finds a colder solution. It's usually because cutters can go through Michigan or worse....so if they trend 400 miles east it is still a rainstorm. We're usually not tracking storms 300 miles east of George's Bank (maybe occasionally, lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: I meant in terms of producing snow. More frequently does a whiff come back to smack us with a SECS or greater than a runner/cutter finds a colder solution. Yea, I feel better about needing a trend nw, than sw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's usually because cutters can go through Michigan or worse....so if they trend 400 miles east it is still a rainstorm. We're usually not tracking storms 300 miles east of George's Bank (maybe occasionally, lol). That is true, but you know yourself how a system of gulf origins usually trends in the final few days before verification.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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