Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I like this GEFs spread on the western side there... Man, some deep members in there, too - phew. I'd have to say, overall this looks like more members on board compared to the 06z ... But this all d7.5+ it's tough. I maintain that these can only still implicate a time frame of interest - can't stress enough. I suspect Wed would be the thread fire off time if one is need. Ha Wow. 70, 58, 61, 59... those be white hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Keeps getting pushed back . Initially was a weekend storm. Now it’s early week. Never liked that sign 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Keeps getting pushed back . Initially was a weekend storm. Now it’s early week. Never liked that sign Its actually better from a higher pressure colder air aspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Keeps getting pushed back . Initially was a weekend storm. Now it’s early week. Never liked that sign What? As of now it’s super bowl Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: What? As of now it’s super bowl Sunday Seems to me it’s Sunday night and Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Keeps getting pushed back . Initially was a weekend storm. Now it’s early week. Never liked that sign I agree on the 'typically'. If one's able to look at a system that's at day 6.5 for 2 days, things are more apt to change. Selfishly in this instance I would prefer a Sunday night event so i can enjoy it from home rather than driving back from NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Seems to me it’s Sunday night and Monday That's certainly when the GGEM is placing it. Seems the GEFS have it a little later than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Seems to me it’s Sunday night and Monday Saturday afternoon from earliest guidance through Sunday night on the later guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Even this spread illustrates how much can change prior to the development of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 looks like euro is coming in a close miss. again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 strong southern and northern stream vorticities just lack of coupling at least through 156 on pivotal. southern stream way ahead of NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Dr No is back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 unlike 12z yesterday. that southern stream just scoots east and does not energize and slow down for NS but instead drags the baroclinic zone east with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: Dr No is back? Better it be OTS than a cutter at this point IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: Dr No is back? no closed 500mb southern stream low. at 164 it already scoots offshore with no NS phase. looks like a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 at 168 no phase. energy way offshore. onto the next run. this run took it into bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 that west coast ridge moved significantly east this run. concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: at 168 no phase. energy way offshore. onto the next run Not surprising. This winter it's either a cutter or a whiff, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 also the -NAO is diminished versus the last two-3 euro runs. you can see those heights dropping south of greenland. yesterday at 12z we had positive anamolies in that region. Now its neutralish. also flatter EPO ridge. little things make a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Rats...:I didn’t jackpot this run. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rats...:I didn’t jackpot this run. if you look at the last four euro runs, we are consistently losing the confluence positive anamolies look in canada and sadly trending neutral to negative.. not a good sign. just one piece of the puzzle. CMC shows a slightly negative NAO while EURO is clearly slightly positive neutral just by looking at both models 500mb output heights south of Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rats...:I didn’t jackpot this run. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: if you look at the last four euro runs, we are consistently losing the confluence positive anamolies look in canada and sadly trending neutral to negative.. not a good sign. just one piece of the puzzle I don’t really care what the ops have right now. Usually an ensemble approach is best. That energy lagging in TX and the s/w spawning a low off the Delmarva at day 5 are a little weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Meh EURO will probably win this one.. That jet is screaming into the west coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The EPS has always been further west than the op so I wouldn't be too worried about this recent run. Lots of time, lots can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Me thinks whiff is definitely on the table with this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I’m actually fine with the euro. I’m tired of the diarrhea from clouds that has comprised this winter. Either snow or whiff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 yall might wanna check out the 12zNAVGEM evolution at 500mb also. thats a possibility also. another interesting possible solution. hr180 on the NAVGEM shows how easily this can become all NS if that SS slides east initially and faster FWIW JMA is also a hit and miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 48 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: It appears 12Z GEFS trended further east but like you said there is good spread on the western side of that low which could imply a shift back west. I feel ashamed even dissecting this storm so far out due to the looming uncertainty. Just shows how little there is to talk about weather-wise. Nah .... it's only personally guilty if you think it's for validation - as in, it's going to happen. There's nothing wrong with having fun - it's a social media pass-time, one that has emerged because of the Internet advent meets with models that should be available to the tax-payers that ultimately foot the bill. It's just that people's purpose for the engagement vary, ...some unhealthy. That's not us - or 'me' anyway. The 12z Euro now is two runs back to back with no bueno on anything. Hard to to tell ... it did flatten the undulate big-time western ridge signal as I suspected, but it's - I think - tizzying over what to do with the wave lengths down stream and it's messed it up. Heh, in an intuitive sence, it may be a better sign for a system for that model to "not" carry one at D7.5. I mean, if it's finding its way with the pattern, you almost don't want it tossing up bombs because than you know you got no fun there. I'm curious about the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Me thinks whiff is definitely on the table with this threat. Lol..it’s 7 days out, anything is on the table! Go with the ensembles at this point as Scott said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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