MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Cmc is a monster for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Cmc is a monster for the coast pretty tucked in but yeah looks like <970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: pretty tucked in but yeah looks like <970 Not that it matters, but looks to me like it would stay under sne, and not track over the cape, judging from isobars...looks like it hits some confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Legs are growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: pretty tucked in but yeah looks like <970 Tucked for us. Great for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cmc is a monster for the coast That’s an all timer, too bad cmc at d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Some eye candy from last night's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Legs are growing. We might finally be onto something...every model has had something now for a few days, hit or miss the players are still there. The ensembles are coming around and we are in the 6-8 day range. What do you say, 10-20% of some sort of impact along the east coast at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 No... the better eye-candy is this 12z GGEM ... that sucker went from nadda to historic in the 500 mb synoptic evolution in one run! Not sure what it's doing at the surface but eesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Lol at the GFS past 300 hr, maybe winter does come back with a vengeance? Is it too much to ask for the CMC to verify first, then follow it with the GFS storm after 300? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: We might finally be onto something...every model has had something now for a few days, hit or miss the players are still there. The ensembles are coming around and we are in the 6-8 day range. What do you say, 10-20% of some sort of impact along the east coast at this point? I’m closer to 50% that it snows for someone here. Take all guidance and factor in the KWS ‘rains for everyone’ output...usually a good sign it’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m closer to 50% that it snows for someone here. Take all guidance and factor in the KWS ‘rains for everyone’ output...usually a good sign it’s coming. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Lol at the GFS past 300 hr, maybe winter does come back with a vengeance? Is it too much to ask for the CMC to verify first, then follow it with the GFS storm after 300? Nope ... That's the short answer But the prudent question really should be...is it realistic to expect any of it to happen - haha. To witch, we know the answer to that question; we just hedge bets and rationalisms much of the time in trying to will certain results into existence. All humor has a modicum of truth to it. Fact of the matter is, the models typically do not cast depictions that are "physically impossible" ? If so, that wouldn't be a very confident forecast model, would it. This facet is sort of baked in, yup ..but it's why folks' will come back at 6 to see the 18z version - ...hopes dashed as they typically are...Or, re-enforced...etc... Unfortunately, the atmospheric dynamo out in time is one that has factors of fractals to it's behavior, with non-present variables that are destined to emerge in time to alter outcomes. That's the only reason why a D8 Euro bomb fails. It's probably withing plausibility but the model corrected where it shouldn't, and/or something reared along the way to change things - but it was not originally impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Nope ... That's the short answer But the prudent question really should be...is it realistic to expect any of it to happen - haha. To witch we know the answer while hedging bets and rationalisms much of the time in trying to will certain results into existence. All humor has a modicum of truth to it. Fact of the matter is, the models typically do not cast depictions that are "physically impossible" ? If so, that wouldn't be a very confident forecast model, would it. This facet is sort of baked in, yup ..but it's why folks' will come back at 6 to see the 18z version - ...hopes dashed as they typically are...Or, re-enforced...etc... We can always count on you to avoid the short answer lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s an all timer, too bad cmc at d7. Every model has a coastal and the CMC just got an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Every model has a coastal Well yes but I’m referring to that particular solution. Wish that was inside d2 instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Every model has a coastal and the CMC just got an upgrade. Funny, you weren't flaunting the CMC upgrade last night lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m closer to 50% that it snows for someone here. Take all guidance and factor in the KWS ‘rains for everyone’ output...usually a good sign it’s coming. You were 80% sure of snow this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Significant timing difference between ICON vs. GFS vs. GGEM. Looks liek ICON is about 12 hours earlier than the GFS which is about 12 hours earlier than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Rev goin full reverse psychology is always good juju... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We can always count on you to avoid the short answer lol Ha ha ... Hey I gave it up - "nope" but couldn't resist... That thing out at at 300 + is about 50% toward a 1993 analog just from orbit btw - that oughta get some hopes unwarranted - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nope ... That's the short answer But the prudent question really should be...is it realistic to expect any of it to happen - haha. To witch, we know the answer to that question; we just hedge bets and rationalisms much of the time in trying to will certain results into existence. All humor has a modicum of truth to it. Fact of the matter is, the models typically do not cast depictions that are "physically impossible" ? If so, that wouldn't be a very confident forecast model, would it. This facet is sort of baked in, yup ..but it's why folks' will come back at 6 to see the 18z version - ...hopes dashed as they typically are...Or, re-enforced...etc... Oh of course, playing the odds, probably well below 1%....This is what creates the so called addiction to weather modeling, the Euro ensembles are complete and everyone is silently needing the 18z stuff to start asap, winter time specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha ha ... Hey I gave it up - "nope" but couldn't resist... That thing out at at 300 + is about 50% toward a 1993 analog just from orbit btw - that oughta get some hopes unwarranted - Just bustn'....I'd take March 1993 100mi east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 That CMC run also has it stalling just E of BOS as it occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Pounding sleet and snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Rev goin full reverse psychology is always good juju... lol we don't believe in juju... actually I would be cool to start a thread now, but some weird people would say it's bad luck lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 33 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: We might finally be onto something...every model has had something now for a few days, hit or miss the players are still there. The ensembles are coming around and we are in the 6-8 day range. What do you say, 10-20% of some sort of impact along the east coast at this point? I'd be cautious. Most models agreed on 6+ snows for us 3 days ago. We all know how that went... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I like this GEFs spread on the western side there... Man, some deep members in there, too - phew. I'd have to say, overall this looks like more members on board compared to the 06z ... But this all d7.5+ it's tough. I maintain that these can only still implicate a time frame of interest - can't stress enough. I suspect Wed would be the thread fire off time if one is need. Ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I like this GEFs spread on the western side there... Man, some deep members in there, too - phew. I'd have to say, overall this looks like more members on board compared to the 06z ... But this all d7.5+ it's tough. I maintain that these can only still implicate a time frame of interest - can't stress enough. I suspect Wed would be the thread fire off time if one is need. Ha It appears 12Z GEFS trended further east but like you said there is good spread on the western side of that low which could imply a shift back west. I feel ashamed even dissecting this storm so far out due to the looming uncertainty. Just shows how little there is to talk about weather-wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 GEFS with a big improvement in the long range. Big cave to eps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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