Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That’s the concern . Reverting Just ignore what I posted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Just ignore what I posted I think everyone agrees that ak people are tough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Just ignore what I posted Looks good, doesn’t mean it’ll verify. Wake me up in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: There was a reduced amount of ridging in ak around day 10 so it looked like less of a weenie look then it did at 12z yesterday. Consider it snakebitititus, but the concern is it starts backing off and looking more like the GEFS longer range...reminds me of just a few weeks ago. Hopefully no setbacks as we are pushing into February now...the sun this morning felt warm, the clock is starting to tick now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah....this. Some pretty horrendous posts lately about 168 or 204 hour solutions. Maybe we need to make a model thread again like before subforums. A place to discuss OP clown range solutions. Y'all need to codify some form of primmer requirement for usage on the site if it is that annoying. It too often comes across as though those posting in that mind-space, more likely don't know any better? So, rather than passive shaming, which conjures other problems, try education. Something, anything... but, hoi-polloi appear to be able to sign up with limited or no prequalification for substantive contribution, unless they espouse being a Met (not sure if this social media platform requires credentials for that); else they have away at it. There's a conflict of interest. If this site's background agenda is profit through banner ads and so forth, the attraction cannot deny entry either - so the battle has to unfortunately be fought and won on this side of the allowability. Understood. So ... the options are clear, you have to isolinearly tag individuals exhibiting the less refined, overtly emotive response to tools meant for a tool box. Oh well.. But still, there could be a 'cultural' awareness of said primmer sourcing... or the like. --------------------------------------------- I suspect the pattern change is the culprit in the overnight abandonment issue with operational guidance' I wouldn't discard the notion that the nothing results - or to be more specific, something happens, just not here. Sometimes - baser philosophy of model usage - when the more refined operational versions of each cluster begin to converge on a consensus, their lesser sophisticated ensemble members will begin to fall in line. It's like 33% someodd percent of the time, the weight seems to pull from the other direction. That said, I think the EPS' idea of a flat bottle rocket southern stream low ejection off the MA that doesn't get the N/stream benefit until the lower Maritimes, may be a course of lesser regret. I mentioned the following yesterday that the flow appears destined to another episode of compression/higher velocities. I don't know if it will be as extreme as before ...when several west-east intercontinental flights set ground-based speed records ...soaring over 800 mph! No...but, when the HC "deflated" a couple weeks ago, and heralded in a new pattern featuring flow relaxation, it went like 'too far' in the other direction? ...for interesting weather events, that is.. So far, the guidance tenor when blending multiple sources, appears to want to bring it mid-way back in extremeness. Which...may and probably will provide its own headaches. I still suspect that the Euro operational is too amplified in the D8-10 ... It's treating western N/A below the 60-70th latitudes like the Pacific is drilling a fantastic AB phased -EPO...yet it really has pallid blocking inside the EPO domain space - I dunno, I think the progressive nature of the flow in the GFS may be more correct by complexion alone, obviously 'details' in the GFS cannot be trusted. Tough to separate those two in folks' minds. They'll tend to not see where the model is right, in lieu of not getting that 'forecast high' from a bomb cinema at publications times, but I digress.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: There was a reduced amount of ridging in ak around day 10 so it looked like less of a weenie look then it did at 12z yesterday. It was real weenie 12z yesterday, but not as weenie previously at 00z yesterday. So I chalk it up to noise usually. As long as the big pieces of the puzzle are there, I’m ok with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I think everyone agrees that ak people are tough Lol whoosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 And yeah ideally I’d like to see that ridging more in western NAMR, but at this point you won’t hear me being picky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: It was real weenie 12z yesterday, but not as weenie previously at 00z yesterday. So I chalk it up to noise usually. As long as the big pieces of the puzzle are there, I’m ok with it. Snake bites in here have some paralyzed unable to believe the past doesn't predict the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: offshore? Yeah, I was looking at the ENS for QPF. Looked like most of the moisture was offshore with those two. I guess even with ens it’s probably foolish to glean anything from QPF at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Alaskan people are tough There is a guy in Ketchikan AK I deal with for Volvo Diesel engines who has been up there 25 years and said it is by far the coldest and snowiest he has seen since being there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Snake bites in here have some paralyzed unable to believe the past doesn't predict the future. I get it from some. I don’t blame them for wanting to “see it to believe it..”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Yeah, I was looking at the ENS for QPF. Looked like most of the moisture was offshore with those two. I guess even with ens it’s probably foolish to glean anything from QPF at this lead. Ah ok. Everything will change though, we’ll see over the next couple days which way this is starting to lean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Trouble ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: There is a guy in Ketchikan AK I deal with for Volvo Diesel engines who has been up there 25 years and said it is by far the coldest and snowiest he has seen since being there. Where is he in AK? That's a hugemangous geographical area. He could be in a local-scale anomaly that doesn't reflect a the bigger picture because smaller relative spaces up there ...they're like Kansas sized. That's A The second aspect about that claim is that it was just several years ago that Valdez AK and surrounding points set snow records that were were historically above seasonal norms. I don't know what the specific numbers were, but there hasn't been much press about this year, to date. Maybe something will surface. .. Fact of the matter is, where cold is available...all over the world, snow result tendency are positive anomalous - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Trouble ahead Trouble behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Modfan2 said: Trouble behind That notion just crossed my mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 29 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's the worst looking of the three packages. Wants to maintain more toughing in ak. Yeah I agree with that and fwiw model trends on the GEFS are becoming more favorable to align it more with GEM and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 19 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: There is a guy in Ketchikan AK I deal with for Volvo Diesel engines who has been up there 25 years and said it is by far the coldest and snowiest he has seen since being there. I’m not sure how anyone can live in this. Glad we don’t live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m not sure how anyone can live in this. Glad we don’t live there. That -42/-51 day is really special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 total precip a trace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: total precip a trace. It's a dry cold. Definitely a once in a generation type cold winter up there this year. They were due for a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol whoosh Nah. I knew what you meant. ****ing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m not sure how anyone can live in this. Glad we don’t live there. Ketchikan is in the se rainforest. It's not even that snowy compared to areas further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 It's the rainiest city in mainland north America I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's a dry cold. Definitely a once in a generation type cold winter up there this year. They were due for a good one. When they cold, we fold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It was real weenie 12z yesterday, but not as weenie previously at 00z yesterday. So I chalk it up to noise usually. As long as the big pieces of the puzzle are there, I’m ok with it. Yeah I was fine with 00z. It was model noise to me. Now if we see a distinct trend of it getting worse then I’d worry about it. Even back when we saw the amazing progged pattern 2 weeks ago there were slight oscillations between each run before the real trend started toward garbage. The pattern isn’t perfect...ridge is a little west and the Atlantic remains largely garbage...tries to pop east-based ridging at times but meh.... Still, early to mid February is just about peak snow climo and a pretty decent pattern is fine with me. Just look up first half of Feb 2017 or Feb 2014. Those were basically dateline ridging and garbage NAO but we got crushed. Or hell, I don’t wanna start getting weenies riled up, but this isn’t perfection either...granted, I think we need to amplify the AK ridging a bit more to get a similar look but the ridge is probably a bit west of ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 34 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: There is a guy in Ketchikan AK I deal with for Volvo Diesel engines who has been up there 25 years and said it is by far the coldest and snowiest he has seen since being there. Sorry I misread this. Yes I bet it's been snowy there. It's not typically that snowy of a place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 49 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's the worst looking of the three packages. Wants to maintain more toughing in ak. I think Ray's forecast was for PAC to remain hostile with a better Atlantic. Seems to follow what the GEFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 38 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Yeah, I was looking at the ENS for QPF. Looked like most of the moisture was offshore with those two. I guess even with ens it’s probably foolish to glean anything from QPF at this lead. I was just geeking to the individual members and there are some definitely big bunners in that solution set from 00z... About 3 of the freebie members over and PSU look historic at 500 mb alone ( I don't tend to pay too close attention to their surface evolutions for anything beyond D4 as they are consummately too warm and tucked into the N wall of their 500 mb cores as a general rule...). But ironically ...upon looking at that mean, which is interesting with a few members at 186 hour < 965 mb just off the Cape, I can see why there are some deep solutions, not tucked/wrapped to the west. EPS does not appear interested from the previous cycle but I haven't seen the 06z Edit, I'm a dipshit..I was just looking at the 00z 500mb GEF members for the 06z surface evolutions - yeah... some odd ballz huh. oy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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