Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

[weathafella]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I bet their skill scores were better 

NWS (was the weather bureau back then) claimed 85% accuracy out to 5 days.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@The 4 Seasons measured it out he has all the forecasts and totals saved. He says 90-100 mile error for 18”+. Orange County was forecast for 27-33” they got 1-3”. Our area was in the heart of the 27-33” forecast zone and ended up with 6-10”.  For the 12”+ forecast, the error was around 135 miles. 

We were visiting family in SNJ farm country 25-30 miles south of PHL and evening of the 26th had a 12-16" forecast, snow to start well before midnight,.  We were thinking we'd wake up to a real pounding.  First flakes came about 6:30 AM and last fell before 11 with 1.5" at best, all gone by 2 PM - grandkids were quite disappointed.  It's 130+ driving miles from NYC, perhaps 10 miles shorter straight line. 

[ORH_wxman]

You obviously want to see some consistency on the ensembles. They have absolutely been trending better and better the last 2-3 runs out in the 11-15...today was by far the best. There’s actually a pretty good PV split showing up in the stratosphere...not sure the prog 2 weeks ago ever had that much stratospheric support as good as H5 looked. 

I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic. There’s no reason to just ignore the EPS guidance. Dont go all-in either. If we’re getting this inside of 8-9 days and the 11-15 beyond that hasn’t regressed, then you can start chucking them weenies. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You obviously want to see some consistency on the ensembles. They have absolutely been trending better and better the last 2-3 runs out in the 11-15...today was by far the best. There’s actually a pretty good PV split showing up in the stratosphere...not sure the prog 2 weeks ago ever had that much stratospheric support as good as H5 looked. 

I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic. There’s no reason to just ignore the EPS guidance. Dont go all-in either. If we’re getting this inside of 8-9 days and the 11-15 beyond that hasn’t regressed, then you can start chucking them weenies. 

We should continue to transition more favorably heading into February ..especially in relation to the NAO. Pacific maybe more fleeting, but we'll see. Glad we are finally seeing guidance reflect that, but I agree that we need to wait for continuity to confirm.

I get the skepticism.

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We should continue to transition more favorably heading into February ..especially in relation to the NAO. Pacific maybe more fleeting, but we'll see. Glad we are finally seeing guidance reflect that, but I agree that we need to wait for continuity to confirm.

I get the skepticism.

Guidance is kind of the opposite WRT NAO and pacific. NAO looks mostly putrid still while PAC goes wild. 

Could change obviously. 

[dendrite]

Looks like the GFS is going to dump its northern stream goodies into the bayou too.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And the future cannot be predicted as evidenced by this winter .. mets and models. No one has a clue what will happen in February 

Nice melt

[dendrite]

Oh man let's lock that GFS run in.

[MJO812]

Gfs is a beast

[Hoth]

Sweet jebus what a monster. Mitch would rise like Lazarus if that worked out. Need to pin that high in a better spot though.

[weathafella]

The coast would take a wind and tide beating.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance is kind of the opposite WRT NAO and pacific. NAO looks mostly putrid still while PAC goes wild. 

Could change obviously. 

Yea, right now, but I was referring to the intimation of a PV split. 

Should that come to pass, it will manifest in a neg NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One aspect of the 12z GEFS and EPS that I liked was the N steam waiting to dive in....I'd rather take my chances with a late capture, than a hugger or occlusion...obviously way down the road, but just thinking out loud.

[CoastalWx]

We shall go to Winni if that happens. Lol. 

[Bostonseminole]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The coast would take a wind and tide beating.

and rainy

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We shall go to Winni if that happens. Lol. 

That’s a shellacking up there.... wet for eastern SNE verbatim.... looks more in line with the euro 

[NorEastermass128]

I’d need to build an ark if something like the GFS verified. Rain, wind, and surge. 

[78Blizzard]

Congrats Stoney Brook Mtn.

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not if it happens late enough.

gets pretty torchy for Eastern areas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

gets pretty torchy for Eastern areas.

I wasn't talking about this run...just saying that I prefer a late phase.

Anyway, I def. favor some precip type issues.

Up and in...again.

[nianticct]

Rather be torchy now than later!

[Bostonseminole]

plenty of time of course..currently enjoying my 6-12" the models showed 180 hrs ago..instead  42 and rain  

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

plenty of time of course..currently enjoying my 6-12" the models showed 180 hrs ago..instead  42 and rain  

 

 

That event had dissapointment written all over it...up hill battle.

The hill isn't quite as steep this time, but its still a pretty significant incline.

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, Mersky said:

He is a daily limited poster just like his buddy snowman19 for a reason. 

You should be 5 posted. You contribute nothing because you know nothing I’m sure and are nothing but a troll 

[dendrite]

Let's keep the NYC drama in the NYC forum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Too bad the high escapes into the ocean...it tries to execute a little scooter banana, but not enough for eastern areas on that run.

[Typhoon Tip]

The only thing that would make that better is shaving 1C off the 850s and a new moon... so two things. 

But, stalling a 950s mb low in Boston Harbor some 180 hours out isn't really too appealing to me in a fast flow regime that requires impeccable stream dynamical handling/interaction at precision finite scales - that intrinsically can't be done.  This is a luck solution spit out I'm afraid - as nice as it is to watch.

But we all know this... just sayn'.

I hate to say, seeing some evidence that the fast flow is trying to recur/evolve as a semi-permanent characteristic to that extended, ...across multiple guidance camps.  The HC is sort of expanding her again.  Note the spring in the deep south on the Euro...typically a mid Feb look down there, but three weeks earlier than normal, sets the stage for two aspects:  huge gradient between the Canadian shield and the subtropics; and that is balanced by quickening mid level velocities everywhere.

That makes phasing problematic.  Can't have the x- corrdinate accelerating past the y ( N-S ) or the southern stream bi-passes N/stream wave mechanics. If one objectively goes back across the last several cycles of the GFS you can see this contention struggling in the guidance, with two perfect result runs ( this 18z and one couple days ago), otherwise, near misses or even inland ( unrealistic solution) runners.

I don't see much curling inland through the Lakes with said flow tending to speed up... It's should be stretching wave lengths. I am aware that the Euro is flagging some sort of -EPO hybrid circulation structure out there at the end of the run but I don't believe that's going to transpire that way.  There's not much about the west thru N- Pac arc that really translates toward a -EPO expectation.  Possibly a flat fast +PNA offering some +PNAP amplitude downstream over mid latitude N/A, but that could easily be over meridian saturated when it comes to the Euro out there beyond D 6's.   Not that the GFS is any better in it's own annoyances. 

I think that system next weekend/early next week should be watched - duh. There's too much presentation in both the ensembles for some form of amplitude in the east. I wouldn't count on phasing from this range without a good bit of luck and it would take that if the flow does get sheary fast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The only thing that would make that better is shaving 1C off the 850s and a new moon... so two things. 

But, stalling a 950s mb low in Boston Harbor some 180 hours out isn't really too appealing to me in a fast flow regime that requires impeccable stream dynamical handling/interaction at precision finite scales - that intrinsically can't be done.  This is a luck solution spit out I'm afraid - as nice as it is to watch.

But we all know this... just sayn'.

I hate to say, seeing some evidence that the fast flow is trying to recur/evolve as a semi-permanent characteristic to that extended, ...across multiple guidance camps.  The HC is sort of expanding her again.  Note the spring in the deep south on the Euro...typically a mid Feb look down there, but three weeks earlier than normal, sets the stage for two aspects:  huge gradient between the Canadian shield and the subtropics; and that is balanced by quickening mid level velocities everywhere.

That makes phasing problematic.  Can't have the x- corrdinate accelerating past the y ( N-S ) or the southern stream bi-passes N/stream wave mechanics. If one objectively goes back across the last several cycles of the GFS you can see this contention struggling in the guidance, with two perfect result runs ( this 18z and one couple days ago), otherwise, near misses or even inland ( unrealistic solution) runners. 

I don't see much curling inland through the Lakes with said flow tending to speed up... It's should be stretching wave lengths. I am aware that the Euro is flagging some sort of -EPO hybrid circulation structure out there at the end of the run but I don't believe that's going transpire that way.  There's not much about the west thru N- Pac arc that really translates toward a -EPO expectation.  Possibly a flat fast +PNA offering some +PNAP amplitude downstream over mid latitude N/A, but that could easily be over meridian saturated when it comes to the Euro out there beyond D 6's.   Not that the GFS is any better in it's own annoyances. 

I think that system next weekend/early next week should be watched - duh. There's too much presentation in both the ensembles for some form of amplitude in the east. I wouldn't count on phasing from this range without a good bit of luck and it would take that if the flow does get sheary fast.

I think the Pacific improvement may be oversold, too....we'll see.

Eastern areas should def. rot for a failed phase because that won't end well for winter interests...agreed again.

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the Pacific improvement may be oversold, too....we'll see.

Eastern areas should def. rot for a failed phase because that won't end well for winter interests...agreed again.

The pacific improvement is after that progged storm. In fact, pacific is really awful until just past that point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

The pacific improvement is after that progged storm. In fact, pacific is really awful until just past that point.

Yea, which is why I wouldn't expect a huge snow event near the coast....only way I see it is if we get lucky and if phases very late, just at the right time....likely an ENE special.