dendrite Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But the fact that we are approaching peak winter climo...that in and of itself is a help imo. Nothing like the peak of a season to deliver some goods imo. We’ll see soon enough. We’re past peak now here. There’s a lag as you get closer to the coast due to the heat capacity of the ocean. But over the interior climo temps are on the way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: We miss 5 years ago. and yes, you’re welcome. Your wife and kid had to move out of the house in the lead up, but it was worth it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: We’re past peak now here. There’s a lag as you get closer to the coast due to the heat capacity of the ocean. But over the interior climo temps are on the way up. I was more talking the snowfall aspect with regard to peak..for us in SNE it’s late Jan through mid February I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Desperate weenies tend to latch onto d5+ fantasies. At those long ranges you need to look beyond the specifics. Every weenie knows this, but they don’t let it sink in to their noggin. Just focus on the upper air pattern until you get around d5...then start taking a peak at the surface trends. We all look at the LR fantasy op runs, but most of us do it in jest. If you can’t tolerate models showing 950mb sfc lows, and then losing it the next run, then maybe you need to stop looking at progs beyond a few days. Yep. I’m not even really paying that close attention to it at day 8. I might start looking more at day 6 but even that is not very accurate. Even though forecasts have improved in the past 10 years, we’re not at the point where day 6 is all of the sudden what day 3-4 were in 2009 or 2010. Clown maps and easily accessible model runs 4 times per day has warped the weenie mind....they’ve confused quantity of information with accuracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 If we’re going to get a comeback it’s probably gonna have to be 2012-13 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Happy 5th anniversary Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 456 am EST sun Jan 25 2015 That was the last quality snowstorm New England got. I remember jackpotting with about 34" of snow in Boxborough with that storm. That deformation band was once in a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yep. I’m not even really paying that close attention to it at day 8. I might start looking more at day 6 but even that is not very accurate. Even though forecasts have improved in the past 10 years, we’re not at the point where day 6 is all of the sudden what day 3-4 were in 2009 or 2010. Clown maps and easily accessible model runs 4 times per day has warped the weenie mind....they’ve confused quantity of information with accuracy. I think the Euro at 6z and 18z have the right idea, all models should just be run fully out to 90 hrs, ensembles out to 144 and call it a day. It seems to be a giant waste of time and money(I would assume) to run these models out to 360+ hours when they have such a low percentage of verification. I assume it is for the commodities market, not necessarily for the weather weenies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Your wife and kid had to move out of the house in the lead up, but it was worth it. With a gas can in hand until the first flakes fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I think the Euro at 6z and 18z have the right idea, all models should just be run fully out to 90 hrs, ensembles out to 144 and call it a day. It seems to be a giant waste of time and money(I would assume) to run these models out to 360+ hours when they have such a low percentage of verification. I assume it is for the commodities market, not necessarily for the weather weenies.... Yeah I wouldn’t hate that...maybe run the ensembles out to d15 once per day or something though. Just to get a feel for longer range trends. But OP runs really aren’t that useful beyond D4....I could buy maybe running them out to d5-6 but not beyond that. There’s no really use for an OP run at 168 hours or 204 hours. IIRC...It used to be something like 72-84 hours when the OP models started outperforming the ensembles on the WPF parameter but I’m not sure these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 It's a weather forum, I think it's OK to dicuss day 1 to day 50 stuff, if people get attached to a day 10 storm then it's on them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 February 2015......great memories....... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Happy 5th anniversary Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 456 am EST sun Jan 25 2015 Long term /Monday night through Saturday/... highlights... * major to potentially historic winter storm Monday night into Tuesday night * blizzard watch eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island * 1 to 2 feet of snow for many areas - locally higher amts possible * damaging winds possible coast especially cape/islands - gusts 60 to 70 miles per hour * significant coastal flooding possible along the eastern Massachusetts coast Details... This is pretty much a text book case for a major winter storm/blizzard in southern New England. Potent shortwave dives southeast closes off south of Long Island as low pressure bombs out and tracks up the New England coast. The highly amplified pattern will allow for a slow moving/long duration storm. In addition...high pressure across eastern Canada will supply plenty of cold air for the storm to work with so ptype will probably only be a concern for the far southeast New England coast. We are now quite confident that this will be a major winter storm and it has the potential to become historic for some locations. Will break down the various hazards in the next view paragraphs. 1) heavy snow/blizzard conditions/wind and ptype The middle level low/S are closing off just south of southern New England Monday night and Tuesday. That will probably put US near ground zero for the heaviest snow. The models are in very good agreement in showing 1 to 2 feet of snow for much of the region. Of course there may be areas that exceed 2 feet where localized banding sets up...but its too early to worry about that. Very strong pressure gradient with 1035 mb high over eastern Canada and bombing surface low will likely result in strong to damaging northeast wind gusts of 45 to 60 miles per hour across eastern MA/RI. Gusts between 60 to 70 miles per hour expected across the cape/islands! Will issue a blizzard watch for much of eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island for 1 to 2 feet of snow and 40 to 60 miles per hour wind gusts. This looks to be a serious winter storm and travel will likely become extremely difficult to impossible with near zero visibility. Considerable blowing and drifting snow also expected. Across central and western Massachusetts/northern CT have issued a Winter Storm Watch for 12 to 24 inches of snow. Its possible we may have to upgrade some of that region to a blizzard watch/warning...but was uncertain how much wind would mix down across that region and its still a late 4th and 5th period event. We are also leaning towards the western envelope of solutions at this time led the consistent European model (ecmwf). If the storm trends east a bit...we may be overdone with our snow accumulations across our western zones so something for later shifts to watch. The cape and islands present the most challenging forecast. Depending on exact track of the storm...portions of the region may mix with or change to rain for a time. If colder solutions verify there will be blizzard conditions...but if it ends up warmer could be a fair amount of rain. Therefore...will hoist a winter storm and high wind watch. In fact...we like going with the high wind watch here for the potential of 60 to 70 miles per hour winds. This may combine with any wet snow to cause downed trees and power outages. 2) timing: The worst of the storm looks to occur Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. At least snow showers will likely linger Tuesday night as the system becomes vertically stacked and very slow to depart the region. Dry weather should finally work into the region sometime Wednesday morning. 3) narrow swath of damaging wet snow Will have to watch for a narrow swath of heavy wet snow along the southeast New England coast. This could be problematic in terms of downed trees and power outages...especially given the strong winds. It may be a small area just northwest of the rain/snow line...but could have a significant impact. Wednesday through Saturday... While the storm comes to an end early Wednesday morning and the cleanup begins...we may be dealing with another winter storm later Thursday or Friday. Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/... ***life threatening storm for mariners with seas building to over 25 feet and winds gusts to 60 knots Monday night into tuesday*** Monday night through Tuesday night...moderate to high confidence. Rapidly intensifying low pressure moving across the waters will combine with high pressure across eastern New England. This will result in northeast wind gusts increasing to 50 to 60 knots and building seas to over 25 feet across our eastern waters. Storm watches posted and low probability that we may need hurricane force wind warnings! This is dangerous and life threatening storm and mariners should return to port by Monday afternoon. && Tides/coastal flooding... a significant coastal flood event is possible along the eastern Massachusetts coast during the early Tuesday morning and late Tuesday afternoon high tide cycle. Northeast wind gusts between 45 and 60 knots will seas building to over 25 feet across our eastern outer waters. Astronomical high tide is 10.5 feet in Boston on Tuesday at 430 am. The potential for a 3+ foot storm surge may result in moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding. Another high tide will have to watch closely occurs late Tuesday afternoon/early evening since seas will be built up. In addition...significant beach erosion is possible. A coastal Flood Watch has been issued for eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket. Thank you that’s very helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: With a gas can in hand until the first flakes fell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: That was the last quality snowstorm New England got. I remember jackpotting with about 34" of snow in Boxborough with that storm. That deformation band was once in a lifetime. Um March 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I wouldn’t hate that...maybe run the ensembles out to d15 once per day or something though. Just to get a feel for longer range trends. But OP runs really aren’t that useful beyond D4....I could buy maybe running them out to d5-6 but not beyond that. There’s no really use for an OP run at 168 hours or 204 hours. IIRC...It used to be something like 72-84 hours when the OP models started outperforming the ensembles on the WPF parameter but I’m not sure these days. I agree. Operationally, anything beyond even Day 3 I don't even put much stock in. I use it more as a baseline of what to expect but I never take it verbatim because it's so prone to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Um March 18 Hell all of the New England offices received NOAA awards for the March blizzards. Edit: Sorry, it was GYX, BOX, OKX, PHI, WPC, OPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Hell all of the New England offices received NOAA awards for the March blizzards. It's always Sunny apparently forgot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Um March 18 2015? I'm seeing that as a wind event. That winter was clipper after clipper with a few Noreasters thrown in as well it all blended together after a while lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: It's a weather forum, I think it's OK to dicuss day 1 to day 50 stuff, if people get attached to a day 10 storm then it's on them. Stressing over d7-10 op progs is useless and generally hard to read. It’s fun to troll the weenies from time to time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Gfs coming in much better for next weekend . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Stressing over d7-10 op progs is useless and generally hard to read. It’s fun to troll the weenies from time to time though. true but the 12z GFS looks good for Scooter lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 hr186 is a beauty. good to have a signal like that. sub960low dynamic plenty of moisture EDIT 946mb low at hr196 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 35 minutes ago, dendrite said: We’re past peak now here. There’s a lag as you get closer to the coast due to the heat capacity of the ocean. But over the interior climo temps are on the way up. Average temp bottomed out here on Jan. 21, but the midpoint for snowfall is about Feb. 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: 2015? I'm seeing that as a wind event. That winter was clipper after clipper with a few Noreasters thrown in as well it all blended together after a while lol. No. March 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: 2015? I'm seeing that as a wind event. That winter was clipper after clipper with a few Noreasters thrown in as well it all blended together after a while lol. March 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No. March 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: March 2018 Ok gotcha. Clearly forgot that happened (easier to forget when you're not physically there ) . I remember I was in the middle of a move that week too my head was elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Happy 5th anniversary Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 456 am EST sun Jan 25 2015 Long term /Monday night through Saturday/... highlights... * major to potentially historic winter storm Monday night into Tuesday night * blizzard watch eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island * 1 to 2 feet of snow for many areas - locally higher amts possible * damaging winds possible coast especially cape/islands - gusts 60 to 70 miles per hour * significant coastal flooding possible along the eastern Massachusetts coast Details... This is pretty much a text book case for a major winter storm/blizzard in southern New England. Potent shortwave dives southeast closes off south of Long Island as low pressure bombs out and tracks up the New England coast. The highly amplified pattern will allow for a slow moving/long duration storm. In addition...high pressure across eastern Canada will supply plenty of cold air for the storm to work with so ptype will probably only be a concern for the far southeast New England coast. We are now quite confident that this will be a major winter storm and it has the potential to become historic for some locations. Will break down the various hazards in the next view paragraphs. 1) heavy snow/blizzard conditions/wind and ptype The middle level low/S are closing off just south of southern New England Monday night and Tuesday. That will probably put US near ground zero for the heaviest snow. The models are in very good agreement in showing 1 to 2 feet of snow for much of the region. Of course there may be areas that exceed 2 feet where localized banding sets up...but its too early to worry about that. Very strong pressure gradient with 1035 mb high over eastern Canada and bombing surface low will likely result in strong to damaging northeast wind gusts of 45 to 60 miles per hour across eastern MA/RI. Gusts between 60 to 70 miles per hour expected across the cape/islands! Will issue a blizzard watch for much of eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island for 1 to 2 feet of snow and 40 to 60 miles per hour wind gusts. This looks to be a serious winter storm and travel will likely become extremely difficult to impossible with near zero visibility. Considerable blowing and drifting snow also expected. Across central and western Massachusetts/northern CT have issued a Winter Storm Watch for 12 to 24 inches of snow. Its possible we may have to upgrade some of that region to a blizzard watch/warning...but was uncertain how much wind would mix down across that region and its still a late 4th and 5th period event. We are also leaning towards the western envelope of solutions at this time led the consistent European model (ecmwf). If the storm trends east a bit...we may be overdone with our snow accumulations across our western zones so something for later shifts to watch. The cape and islands present the most challenging forecast. Depending on exact track of the storm...portions of the region may mix with or change to rain for a time. If colder solutions verify there will be blizzard conditions...but if it ends up warmer could be a fair amount of rain. Therefore...will hoist a winter storm and high wind watch. In fact...we like going with the high wind watch here for the potential of 60 to 70 miles per hour winds. This may combine with any wet snow to cause downed trees and power outages. 2) timing: The worst of the storm looks to occur Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. At least snow showers will likely linger Tuesday night as the system becomes vertically stacked and very slow to depart the region. Dry weather should finally work into the region sometime Wednesday morning. 3) narrow swath of damaging wet snow Will have to watch for a narrow swath of heavy wet snow along the southeast New England coast. This could be problematic in terms of downed trees and power outages...especially given the strong winds. It may be a small area just northwest of the rain/snow line...but could have a significant impact. Wednesday through Saturday... While the storm comes to an end early Wednesday morning and the cleanup begins...we may be dealing with another winter storm later Thursday or Friday. Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/... ***life threatening storm for mariners with seas building to over 25 feet and winds gusts to 60 knots Monday night into tuesday*** Monday night through Tuesday night...moderate to high confidence. Rapidly intensifying low pressure moving across the waters will combine with high pressure across eastern New England. This will result in northeast wind gusts increasing to 50 to 60 knots and building seas to over 25 feet across our eastern waters. Storm watches posted and low probability that we may need hurricane force wind warnings! This is dangerous and life threatening storm and mariners should return to port by Monday afternoon. && Tides/coastal flooding... a significant coastal flood event is possible along the eastern Massachusetts coast during the early Tuesday morning and late Tuesday afternoon high tide cycle. Northeast wind gusts between 45 and 60 knots will seas building to over 25 feet across our eastern outer waters. Astronomical high tide is 10.5 feet in Boston on Tuesday at 430 am. The potential for a 3+ foot storm surge may result in moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding. Another high tide will have to watch closely occurs late Tuesday afternoon/early evening since seas will be built up. In addition...significant beach erosion is possible. A coastal Flood Watch has been issued for eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket. I'm curious what the model showed 8 days prior. Just curious with what we're seeing now with this storm for next weekend if there are any similarities to the track and structure of the this storm and the one from 2015 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I wouldn’t hate that...maybe run the ensembles out to d15 once per day or something though. Just to get a feel for longer range trends. But OP runs really aren’t that useful beyond D4....I could buy maybe running them out to d5-6 but not beyond that. There’s no really use for an OP run at 168 hours or 204 hours. IIRC...It used to be something like 72-84 hours when the OP models started outperforming the ensembles on the WPF parameter but I’m not sure these days. It seems like the more hi-res the models become, plus the input of more atnospheric data each run is creating the crazy jumps in the OP runs past Day 3. Maybe it actually isnt that way using verification scores, but it just seems to be more variability in that 3-5 day window in recent years. Not trying to stir the pot, but maybe CC is wreaking some havoc in there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 I think the ceiling for us is a moderate event. If it phases big time, then its going to hug the shore, like Boxing day with a more tepid airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 41 minutes ago, tamarack said: Average temp bottomed out here on Jan. 21, but the midpoint for snowfall is about Feb. 1. Average temp peak for me is the 22nd & 23rd. I don't have normals for daily snowfall, just monthly but if I take the monthly numbers and divide them out on a daily basis it looks like the half way mark for me is 1/28. Nice to know I'm not even half way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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