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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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I take it as a learning experience. The CFS weeklies just flipped to warm throughout overnight. Weeklies are basically useless, and my take away is to ignore them moving forward. 

Also positive winter flips like 2015 and 2007 are relatively rare, and I should not look for one during every winter that starts bad.

Funny but this winter makes 2011 2012 look epic.

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I take it as a learning experience. The CFS weeklies just flipped to warm throughout overnight. Weeklies are basically useless, and my take away is to ignore them moving forward. 

Also positive winter flips like 2015 and 2007 are relatively rare, and I should not look for one during every winter that starts bad.

Funny but this winter makes 2011 2012 look epic.

I’ll take 11/12 over this shit unless we somehow magically sneak in an all timer on the backend. 

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52 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I take it as a learning experience. The CFS weeklies just flipped to warm throughout overnight. Weeklies are basically useless, and my take away is to ignore them moving forward. 

Also positive winter flips like 2015 and 2007 are relatively rare, and I should not look for one during every winter that starts bad.

Funny but this winter makes 2011 2012 look epic.

the sensible weather is not all that different from 11-12-it's a wetter version, but our biggest storm was 1/18-very similar to that winter which had one event around that date and then was warm and snowless after....

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Well, I have more snow in Ayer than I did in 2011-2012 today... a season that ended that way too.  

So, it can be worse.   

I mean that statement is obviously, obvious - ha.   But suppose at some point in the last 1,000,000 years of eastern North America's climate, there is at least one winter that never got colder than 50 F and never saw snow anywhere in this geographical region?   Maybe ..maybe not.   But this ain't that, and this ain't that 2012 ending, either. 

Sides, all grousing and close-minded cynicism based on conditioning aside for a moment,  in 1956 ( ?57 ) there was like 40 to 60" of snow in March between the MA and NE regions after a pallid piece of shit three months.  I'm sure somewhere there was a weather nerd of the day, waiting for the 6 pm radio report like we heroin addict over psychotropic model run addiction now, that had the same perspective on matters in February when his soul was reanimated by satan for the sole intent of getting him/her to eat more shit... Then, that March came along. 

Oh I don't want it ..as per my own proclivity to opine the tribulations of loathing NE spring I have upon more than a single occasion drafted up many a too-long-a-speech admonishing.. But, objectivity is in there somewhere, and my own hypocrisy has been admitted...I can 'turn on' the winter charms if the situation really calls for it, and get all giddy and happy and bi-polar with the rest of you when 1888 walks through the door.   

Seriously... I really do think that as the gradient slackens ( seasonally ..) as it typically does ending this month and going into next, and just prior to the sun's diabatic forcing on the hemisphere, there is that time of year. 'Bowling' season as it were... I think this year we have a shot at a -NAO west based...even if not hugely demonstrative in the charts, ...almost by behavior.  It's like 'sloshing'?   If you imagine the system has been pressed to one end...then, the press slackens off and things overcompensate - metaphor.  But perhaps with all this fast velocity and +AO stuff, we'll be left with two or three weeks where there is surplus mid and upper level latent heat fluxed to 60 and 70 N ...which could trigger ephemeral blocking nodes for a time. I almost see that as more possible than the standard chances this particular March.  We'll see...  

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

for central and northern NE yes, for SNE forget it....

Well probably down there...yeah. Up here in this part of SNE often gets teased in gradient patterns. Sometimes we score well too. Sometimes it’s missing by 25-40 miles like last year in several systems. 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol you were talking up big ice there yesterday. You’ll be back on the wagon when the next threat teases. 

There still could be with the south shift /more qpf pike south. Still TBD. Either way though.. the point is. This winter has showed us its hand. Cards on table for all see. Dud. Nothing of significance left. Waste of time to sit around tracking when there’s nothing to show 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There still could be with the south shift /more qpf pike south. Still TBD. Either way though.. the point is. This winter has showed us its hand. Cards on table for all see. Dud. Nothing of significance left. Waste of time to sit around tracking when there’s nothing to show 

Maybe its a wast of time for you, but, NNE and even CNE will see Wintry conditions from this. Trust me, I am frustrated that this Winter has not gone in the direction that we all thought it was, but, when we have that " PERFECT " one, it will make up for all the wasted hours of disappointment. ;-)

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