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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS says to keep en eye out, but I admit...my gut says probably misses SE.

Like I said yesterday, and not even trolling, these threats this winter have gone the opposite of whatever way we need them to go. It’s just the reality of the situation.

Sunday would have been a half decent setup, but of course, after one good run, it’s gone.

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2 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

and just like that the Sunday "storm" vanished....Might be time to pack it up for us south of Hartford, maybe closer to 84, just doesn't look like much for us down here. I'm sure some scraps here and there, but nothing to get very excited about from this point on.

Nah... the ICON and GGEM both brought that back pretty coherently in their respective runs so it's solidly got good modeling integrity and the outlook is hugely intact -

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes that was certainly mentioned. There was lots and of talk of favorable pattern after this week. I never bought it as I thought the whole month was shot, but those posts are there if you look 

I saw lots of posts about how it looks improved, but we’re still prone to cutters. We ride the line. Gradient pattern. SWFEs and cutters. 

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40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were those too. But some mets said after this week was favorable 

No! You’re such a spinner.

They said the pattern improves some; cold would be close.  And we’re gonna ride the line...and just maybe we get lucky.  That’s what was said.
 

 You are the Biggest Wishcaster in here. 

 

The way it’s gone so far...I didn’t put any faith in that idea,  it’s just not our year in SNE.  But no MET said favorable in the way you are trying to make it look. 

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No! You’re such a spinner.

They said the pattern improves some; cold would be close.  And we’re gonna ride the line...and just maybe we get lucky.  That’s what was said.
 

 You are the Biggest Wishcaster in here. 

 

The way it’s gone so far...I didn’t put any faith in that idea,  it’s just not our year in SNE.  But no MET said favorable in the way you are trying to make it look. 

Get a grip and read 

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean we'll find most years post ... ~ Feb 10..  the slope of season recovery starts -

2015 is about the greatest polar exception as is physically plausible, and it happened..  but by and large, Feb 10+ is about big bombs with intervening sun eating snow banks back... OR, no bombs, and the sun eating snow banks back. 

Either way, the pack retention curve isn't enthusiast's friend.  The solar nadir ends on the 10th and streets start steaming when the snow ends prior to noon and the sun comes out. 

I always thought of Feb as kind of the antithesis of Augie ... same deal though.  You can be in the thick of the seasonal weeds, but there are subtleties in either that betray the faltering ...   It matters because June 15 won't be very different than August 15.. .but August 15 can be very different than Sept 21...particularly if we're frosting early.  Feb can be powder 'cane on the 20th but be weird 80 F on March 15 like three weeks later.  You're not going to get that between Dec 15 and Feb 15 

Oh wait ... not supposed to anyway -

Sure but a -nao ala Mar 18 could give us a couple weeks of fun. I just don’t see it as every good look past d10 has morphed into rubbish found at the bottom of kitchen sinks. We’ll probably get lucky at some point, right?

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17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sure but a -nao ala Mar 18 could give us a couple weeks of fun. I just don’t see it as every good look past d10 has morphed into rubbish found at the bottom of kitchen sinks. We’ll probably get lucky at some point, right?

Gefs have looked a bit better the past couple of runs past day 10, especially out toward days 13-16...I know it's the GEFS, but they are eroding the -pna in the long range...salvage a couple of weeks?

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5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh that's still in the cards for March

Prolly be an east-baster just for the impudent implicit idea that -NAO means good for us.. but -NAO of some kind that doesn't snow but f-up the entire April-May part of MLB is a slam dunk -

But beyond sarcasm and grousing, there are larger conceptual reasons to look for that. Hopefully they fail

I sense an extreme reversal of the record breaking +AO/NAO pattern. 

Extreme flips are the new normal. Expect a few snowy nor'easters and bitterly cold temps for March. 

Enjoy!

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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sure but a -nao ala Mar 18 could give us a couple weeks of fun. I just don’t see it as every good look past d10 has morphed into rubbish found at the bottom of kitchen sinks. We’ll probably get lucky at some point, right?

Well, I don't see same type of mechanism that we has in '18...no. But we'll sew if we can muster something up.

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8 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

My stuff isn't perfect, but sometimes the math does work. You can predict the winter NAO tendencies pretty well using a regression of Sept-Mar and May-Apr.

The February values are probably going to verify pretty well too. 

nao.sprd2.gif

izY5wp2.png

Yea, that -.20 figure for March seems reasonable to me...I don't see anything to indicate an extreme period of NAO, like 2018, but you don't necessarily need that for some nice events.

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