MJO812 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Day 11 to 15 verification lately is worse than a coin flip Anything after day 8 is a coin flip. Long range has been atrocious this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The EPS have significantly improved overnight IMHO in the 11-15. They have been showing some signs but last night’s run took it up a notch with the ridging out in the PAC domain. Lets see if we can build on this and track it closer unlike the last one which vaporized about 9 days out. well said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Anything after day 8 is a coin flip. Long range has been atrocious FOREVER FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 One interesting aspect I’ve noticed on some of these early model runs is the Northern stream shortwave. Some camps showing a 970 land low barreling out of Canada attempting to interact with the southern shortwave. Thing would have some vigor if that were the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Giving up on a storm a week away with so many vorts involved ? LoL Did I say give up? For the sake of the sanity of some people here, I wouldn’t be getting into the 6hrly run changes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Did I say give up? For the sake of the sanity of some people here, I wouldn’t be getting into the 6hrly run changes. going too be a long week of looking at model runs.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, 512high said: going too be a long week of looking at model runs.......... Hopefully we cash in because this winter has been boring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, 512high said: going too be a long week of looking at model runs.......... Maybe not. Hopefully it goes to crap quickly like today’s if it has to go to crap. I call today’s rainer a courteous crapper. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, 512high said: going too be a long week of looking at model runs.......... Not if you ignore them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hopefully we cash in because this winter has been boring. I see north of nyc getting a couple good ones rest of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Yeah the 00z icon looks like it was setting up a monster hit. Fantasy land but nice to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah the 00z icon looks like it was setting up a monster hit. Fantasy land but nice to look at Not that the icon is that great, but it’s not all that far out in fantasy land at 7 days. A long time for sure in model land, but it’s not 10+ days anymore either... lol trying to find the positives here I guess...?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 GEFS want to keep the AK vortex and Hawaii ridge. Hope the GEPS is correct. Do not have the extended EPS to compare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS want to keep the AK vortex and Hawaii ridge. Hope the GEPS is correct. Do not have the extended EPS to compare. Will said the EPS Has significantly improved overnight....so I would imagine it’s not showing nearly what the GEFS is. But as we said, the 11-15 has gone Poof as we close in, so take that for what it’s worth...which is not much. But at least they looked better, that’s always a little better than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Crocuses by Valentines Day I had snow drops a couple weeks ago when it hit 70. Never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: Will said the EPS Has significantly improved overnight....so I would imagine it’s not showing nearly what the GEFS is. But as we said, the 11-15 has gone Poof as we close in, so take that for what it’s worth...which is not much. But at least they looked better, that’s always a little better than the other way around. Agreed. Now I do not understand this, but the Mets say the "wavelengths" shorten as winter goes on which can overcome a negative pattern. So we seem to have a safety net of sorts as winter goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed. Now I do not understand this, but the Mets say the "wavelengths" shorten as winter goes on which can overcome a negative pattern. So we seem to have a safety net of sorts as winter goes on. We're near peak winter climo. Wavelengths aren't shortening for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: We're near peak winter climo. Wavelengths aren't shortening for awhile. Rats. I am still waiting to hit 10 for the season incredibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 The models aren't going to have a clue for at least several days. Heck if they can't nail something down 3-4 days out, how can we expect them to correctly forecast something 7+ days out? I am actually beginning to think medium and long range models are doing more harm than good for the weather community. I'm tired of fantasy solutions and the resulting hype spreading like wildfire on social media. We should ditch running operational models altogether past 3 days in favor of an all ensemble approach and get back to the old school way of doing things more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Hopefully the icon has a clue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Hopefully the icon has a clue. It doesn’t 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Rats. I am still waiting to hit 10 for the season incredibly. But the fact that we are approaching peak winter climo...that in and of itself is a help imo. Nothing like the peak of a season to deliver some goods imo. We’ll see soon enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It doesn’t It doesnt usually show anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Happy 5th anniversary Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 456 am EST sun Jan 25 2015 Long term /Monday night through Saturday/... highlights... * major to potentially historic winter storm Monday night into Tuesday night * blizzard watch eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island * 1 to 2 feet of snow for many areas - locally higher amts possible * damaging winds possible coast especially cape/islands - gusts 60 to 70 miles per hour * significant coastal flooding possible along the eastern Massachusetts coast Details... This is pretty much a text book case for a major winter storm/blizzard in southern New England. Potent shortwave dives southeast closes off south of Long Island as low pressure bombs out and tracks up the New England coast. The highly amplified pattern will allow for a slow moving/long duration storm. In addition...high pressure across eastern Canada will supply plenty of cold air for the storm to work with so ptype will probably only be a concern for the far southeast New England coast. We are now quite confident that this will be a major winter storm and it has the potential to become historic for some locations. Will break down the various hazards in the next view paragraphs. 1) heavy snow/blizzard conditions/wind and ptype The middle level low/S are closing off just south of southern New England Monday night and Tuesday. That will probably put US near ground zero for the heaviest snow. The models are in very good agreement in showing 1 to 2 feet of snow for much of the region. Of course there may be areas that exceed 2 feet where localized banding sets up...but its too early to worry about that. Very strong pressure gradient with 1035 mb high over eastern Canada and bombing surface low will likely result in strong to damaging northeast wind gusts of 45 to 60 miles per hour across eastern MA/RI. Gusts between 60 to 70 miles per hour expected across the cape/islands! Will issue a blizzard watch for much of eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island for 1 to 2 feet of snow and 40 to 60 miles per hour wind gusts. This looks to be a serious winter storm and travel will likely become extremely difficult to impossible with near zero visibility. Considerable blowing and drifting snow also expected. Across central and western Massachusetts/northern CT have issued a Winter Storm Watch for 12 to 24 inches of snow. Its possible we may have to upgrade some of that region to a blizzard watch/warning...but was uncertain how much wind would mix down across that region and its still a late 4th and 5th period event. We are also leaning towards the western envelope of solutions at this time led the consistent European model (ecmwf). If the storm trends east a bit...we may be overdone with our snow accumulations across our western zones so something for later shifts to watch. The cape and islands present the most challenging forecast. Depending on exact track of the storm...portions of the region may mix with or change to rain for a time. If colder solutions verify there will be blizzard conditions...but if it ends up warmer could be a fair amount of rain. Therefore...will hoist a winter storm and high wind watch. In fact...we like going with the high wind watch here for the potential of 60 to 70 miles per hour winds. This may combine with any wet snow to cause downed trees and power outages. 2) timing: The worst of the storm looks to occur Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. At least snow showers will likely linger Tuesday night as the system becomes vertically stacked and very slow to depart the region. Dry weather should finally work into the region sometime Wednesday morning. 3) narrow swath of damaging wet snow Will have to watch for a narrow swath of heavy wet snow along the southeast New England coast. This could be problematic in terms of downed trees and power outages...especially given the strong winds. It may be a small area just northwest of the rain/snow line...but could have a significant impact. Wednesday through Saturday... While the storm comes to an end early Wednesday morning and the cleanup begins...we may be dealing with another winter storm later Thursday or Friday. Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/... ***life threatening storm for mariners with seas building to over 25 feet and winds gusts to 60 knots Monday night into tuesday*** Monday night through Tuesday night...moderate to high confidence. Rapidly intensifying low pressure moving across the waters will combine with high pressure across eastern New England. This will result in northeast wind gusts increasing to 50 to 60 knots and building seas to over 25 feet across our eastern waters. Storm watches posted and low probability that we may need hurricane force wind warnings! This is dangerous and life threatening storm and mariners should return to port by Monday afternoon. && Tides/coastal flooding... a significant coastal flood event is possible along the eastern Massachusetts coast during the early Tuesday morning and late Tuesday afternoon high tide cycle. Northeast wind gusts between 45 and 60 knots will seas building to over 25 feet across our eastern outer waters. Astronomical high tide is 10.5 feet in Boston on Tuesday at 430 am. The potential for a 3+ foot storm surge may result in moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding. Another high tide will have to watch closely occurs late Tuesday afternoon/early evening since seas will be built up. In addition...significant beach erosion is possible. A coastal Flood Watch has been issued for eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hopefully the icon has a clue. The ICON Lmfaoo!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It doesnt usually show anything icon is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 53 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS want to keep the AK vortex and Hawaii ridge. Hope the GEPS is correct. Do not have the extended EPS to compare. Well that’s the 6Z run but 0z was improved particularly with the ridging developing N of AK, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Well that’s the 6Z run but 0z was improved particularly with the ridging developing N of AK, Thanks. We do have a little time on our side with Feb and March on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Desperate weenies tend to latch onto d5+ fantasies. At those long ranges you need to look beyond the specifics. Every weenie knows this, but they don’t let it sink in to their noggin. Just focus on the upper air pattern until you get around d5...then start taking a peak at the surface trends. We all look at the LR fantasy op runs, but most of us do it in jest. If you can’t tolerate models showing 950mb sfc lows, and then losing it the next run, then maybe you need to stop looking at progs beyond a few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 We miss 5 years ago. and yes, you’re welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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