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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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It’s back to being positively tilted as Will showed in the images. Don’t have an intensity fetish here for this one. You want weaker and more strung out for a colder solution. Something stronger will guarantee flooding the region with warmth. I’m sure we’ll see solutions varying around here. Naturally you favor more interior and NNE, but many areas may start as snow. 

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  On 2/2/2020 at 6:31 PM, WinterWolf said:

Yes, but it’s better because then it takes a flatter less amplified route, which is Colder for SNE.

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Yea, if we had blocking, then amplification would be great....but this is winter 2020.. so we don't.

This is a prime example of how Tippy's mutant Hadley cell attributed gradient saturation can augment snow potential...it goes both ways.

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I think initially this isn’t a progressive look as the trough digs. You have a Hudson Bay trough and a rather deep latitudinal trough extending from it. So that will try to promote a more amped solution. However the ridge starts to buckle out west and multiple s/w troughs enter the picture to help keep this a massive stem winder. I still feel more could go wrong vs right in this setup, but the real lack of phasing helps.

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  On 2/2/2020 at 7:13 PM, EastonSN+ said:

At this point I would take 1 to 2 inches to heavy rain to pad the "stats". However not even sure about that

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Decent airmass ahead of it so it certainly could happen. Who knows, maybe this goes weaker and East too. Regardless, this week was never really a lock. It’s afterwards. 

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