Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 4:02 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yikes that’s a big icing look on the GFS after a little snow on Thursday. Expand That ICON solution outs the grid overnight Thursday, period - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 5:32 PM, Typhoon Tip said: That ICON solution outs the grid overnight Thursday, period - Expand Yeah most of the guidance today actually has that menacing look of all those mesolows going off into Cape Cod Bay and up into the gulf of Maine. Doesn’t get much more classic than that for icing look...maybe we hold the high in a little longer in a perfect setup...but those mesolows are sort of making up for it as they act to advect down the cold Maine dews. Were also starting to see a second high pressure build in from the NW late in the game...might have to watch that. It’s in response to the more sheared look in the upper lakes and Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Looks like a line of heavy snow with the warm front in Pennsylvania. It's 42F here, so it might be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Will’s starting to get that icestorm tingle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Euro is a little more sheared than 00z but still not as much as some other guidance. But it did tick that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Will’s starting to get that icestorm tingle Expand Nah...it’s just one run of many more to come, and many more possible solutions as well. The next run will show something else..it’s that kind of winter. Do yourself a favor, and don’t get hooked on any one look. You’ll be happy you did come Tuesday/Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:16 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro is a little more sheared than 00z but still not as much as some other guidance. But it did tick that direction. Expand That looks icy in typical spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Euro backed away from the huge cutter it had 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Maybe setting up to change to snow at end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Euro looks like sh@$ for South coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I have zero confidence in the Euro. It went from a 972mb low at Lake Huron to a 987 low in the gulf of ME @ hr120 in just one run, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:26 PM, 78Blizzard said: I have zero confidence in the Euro. It went from a 972mb low at Lake Huron to a 987 low in the gulf of ME @ hr120 in just one run, lol. Expand careful there are a few euro fanatics in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:16 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro is a little more sheared than 00z but still not as much as some other guidance. But it did tick that direction. Expand Sheared is the way to go...said that this AM while the forum was imploding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Snow-Ice-Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:26 PM, 78Blizzard said: I have zero confidence in the Euro. It went from a 972mb low at Lake Huron to a 987 low in the gulf of ME @ hr120 in just one run, lol. Expand Here’s the subtle change at H5 that manifests itself later on....more sheared and positively tilted. Not a massive change but it causes a big shift in the sensible wx later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:26 PM, 78Blizzard said: I have zero confidence in the Euro. It went from a 972mb low at Lake Huron to a 987 low in the gulf of ME @ hr120 in just one run, lol. Expand Ya it’s not very stable anymore at all. But the take away is this is still changing big time..its just another solution. In actuality, it’s better to not expect much in SNE at this point...I think the odds are we see mostly rain from all of this, than anything else. But Maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised come Tuesday on modeling? But I’m doubtful currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Does the shearing mean less intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sheared is the way to go...said that this AM while the forum was imploding. Expand Yeah I’m leaning that way too. Fast flow with big gradient...that’s not conductive to deeper phased solutions. But we’ll see. Seems like we roll a lot of snake eyes this winter. But no reason to start throwing away money by betting on snake eyes again just because it happened a few times previously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Yes and a further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:30 PM, 8611Blizz said: Does the shearing mean less intensity? Expand Yes, but it’s better because then it takes a flatter less amplified route, which is Colder for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:21 PM, MJO812 said: Euro backed away from the huge cutter it had Expand And the Euro is still all rain for the NYC metro area. Why do you keep doing this to yourself? Lol This never was a NYC snowstorm and it still isn’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:30 PM, 8611Blizz said: Does the shearing mean less intensity? Expand It means it won’t stem wind up into the Great Lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:30 PM, 8611Blizz said: Does the shearing mean less intensity? Expand Yes. Weaker and flatter. That’s good for a colder look though. More overrunning look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 5:02 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah I’m not sure what some people were looking at. It most definitely was not snowy Expand What I saw was snowy.....Raul saw the same thing....it’s not debatable on those images but I guess some vendors are putting it out differently. Even my friend Tip made a point of pimping the ice storm potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:31 PM, WinterWolf said: Yes, but it’s better because then it takes a flatter less amplified route, which is Colder for SNE. Expand Good news. Keep the ice to minimum or not at all if possible. Would much rather rain then ice from a practical standpoint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Does this have the chance to be a copious qpf producer? 3 days of icing/ overrunning etc.. or just light Qpf? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:35 PM, 8611Blizz said: Good news. Keep the ice to minimum or not at all if possible. Would much rather rain then ice from a practical standpoint. Expand Well the colder route would probably mean some ice in these current runs...but these are gonna change a lot over the next couple days. So I wouldn’t be worrying about ice or anything just yet. Could just end up a cold rain for most. Lots to figure out yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Another storm next weekend on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 On 2/2/2020 at 6:02 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah most of the guidance today actually has that menacing look of all those mesolows going off into Cape Cod Bay and up into the gulf of Maine. Doesn’t get much more classic than that for icing look...maybe we hold the high in a little longer in a perfect setup...but those mesolows are sort of making up for it as they act to advect down the cold Maine dews. Were also starting to see a second high pressure build in from the NW late in the game...might have to watch that. It’s in response to the more sheared look in the upper lakes and Midwest. Expand ...and I may be an hour behind consensus here but the Euro appears to be arriving with a substantive SE adjustment... Ways to go - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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