TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Amazing how modeling can flip like it did on its head overnight When in doubt..... go no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Let’s go cool rain , cutter ...whiff Pretty good assessment of how storms have gone this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: When in doubt..... go no snow. It was the upper level hemispheric changes that made me scratch my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: December you enjoyed, no? First 22 days. Then winter ended . Phil came then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Only thing going for us was a good high position , that could erode away today ...really nothing to stop that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Thread is totally irrational this morning. Modeling didn’t even change that much for this coming week unless you were buying the OP GFS yesterday that showed a lot of snow. Even then it’s a slight change in timing of energy ejection that could produce a lot more snow. Half of these posts should just be flat out deleted. Making binary calls on an unstable setup at 4+ days out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 6z eps is rather icy inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Have we ever had damaging icestorm in Feb? Usually they’re earlier in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Thread is totally irrational this morning. Modeling didn’t even change that much for this coming week unless you were buying the OP GFS yesterday that showed a lot of snow. Even then it’s a slight change in timing of energy ejection that could produce a lot more snow. Half of these posts should just be flat out deleted. Making binary calls on an unstable setup at 4+ days out. You did say there was going to be lots of back and forth until at least Monday, so hopefully it bounces back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Thread is totally irrational this morning. Modeling didn’t even change that much for this coming week unless you were buying the OP GFS yesterday that showed a lot of snow. Even then it’s a slight change in timing of energy ejection that could produce a lot more snow. Half of these posts should just be flat out deleted. Making binary calls on an unstable setup at 4+ days out. Unreadable. Emotions swinging from high to low every single model run these days. Folks are losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Have we ever had damaging icestorm in Feb? Usually they’re earlier in winter 2/28/95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: You did say there was going to be lots of back and forth until at least Monday, so hopefully it bounces back.... You’re better off being more pessimistic with this setup, but when guidance started looking half decent yesterday, peeps got sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Unreadable. Emotions swinging from high to low every single model run these days. Folks are losing it. I honestly felt embarrassed reading through it. It’s not like we have a bunch of newbie posters either. There’s going to be some sensible wx swings even on just slight upper air changes. I think a lot of it is people deep down started at least half-believing the snowiest model runs yesterday and allowed themselves to get emotionally invested. No other real reason to explain the reactions this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 2/28/95 Where was that? I don’t recall that being damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where was that? I don’t recall that being damaging It wasn’t like 2008, but I remember even my grandmother in Hyde Park lost a limb in that. Pretty sure some trees down and outages inland, but nothing like 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: It wasn’t like 2008, but I remember even my grandmother in Hyde Park lost a limb in that. Pretty sure some trees down and outages inland, but nothing like 2008. Yeah that was a widespread event but not super damaging. But there were def some scattered power outages. Feb 1989 had a decent ice event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Unreadable. Emotions swinging from high to low every single model run these days. Folks are losing it. I have to disagree with Will. There were wholesale changes to the jets and associated pressure systems in North America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: even my grandmother in Hyde Park lost a limb in that. ouch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It wasn’t like 2008, but I remember even my grandmother in Hyde Park lost a limb in that. Pretty sure some trees down and outages inland, but nothing like 2008. Does she have a prosthetic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Clowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 9 hours ago, weathafella said: John, we’ve met face to face. You seem like a good guy. But you come off as a supercilious dick on these forums more often than not. Don't say dismissive shit like 'welcome to four hours ago,' when you clearly didn't pay attention to the content I specifically typed - and there for were out of line had no basis for sarcasm. Again, you folks didn't discuss specifically why the UK might be the less likely outcome; I offered some insight there - which you wise cracking was baseless at out of line. You were just wrong dude - I pointed that out, you don't like. Tough. Which by the way, is dick heady 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 There wasn’t a huge change I guess though. A little digging here and there. The antecedent airmass has been getting better, but the guidance went a little sharper with that s/w. It would not take much for a half decent SWFE inland. Afterwards, we finally see some colder air move in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I have to disagree with Will. There were wholesale changes to the jets and associated pressure systems in North America Yeah we’ll agree to disagree. These were relatively minor changes aloft that just had a bigger sensible wx change. Mostly on the GFS. Euro really didn’t change a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Got birds chirping out my window.. Spring? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that was a widespread event but not super damaging. But there were def some scattered power outages. Feb 1989 had a decent ice event too. March 1990... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Man we’ve seen anger before on here, but there is so much on here this morning from several posters. Frankly it’s scaring me a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Man we’ve seen anger before on here, but there is so much on here this morning from several posters. Frankly it’s scaring me a bit. Stay so very, very safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There wasn’t a huge change I guess though. A little digging here and there. The antecedent airmass has been getting better, but the guidance went a little sharper with that s/w. It would not take much for a half decent SWFE inland. Afterwards, we finally see some colder air move in. Yeah the southern stream is digging a little more and staying more coherent. 12z yesterday was a little more sheared. We’ve seen these subtle change flip from run to run but it ends up mattering for the snow (moreso than the ice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I have to disagree with Will. There were wholesale changes to the jets and associated pressure systems in North America I mean the overall look is still pretty similar with several waves rippling along the baroclinic zone, with the last one being the stronger system. It just depends where that boundary is and seems to be waffling around a bit. Cutter to suppression still seems all on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I don't know about whole-scale changes .. but, I did detect an slight NW bump with the Euro toward the UKMET's 12z solution from yesterday, wrt to the Euro's 00z release. The other subtle, but perhaps hugely important change for me, is the handling of the surface pressure pattern over SE Canada. The Euro and in particular, the GGEM ..were more progressive with that high pressure ...peeling it away into the lower maritime bit faster - so it seems.. Admittedly, the 00z Euro I refer too comes from PSU E-wall, which panels every 24 hours... as does Tropical Tidbits, so exact matching is little trickier. One thing that also that occurs to me, .. I snarked ( half seriously) three or four weeks ago in a post how most cyclones this season have done one of two things: they've either corrected up the St L Seaway, or .. they've end up hugely over blown in the guidance and end up being almost nothing sweeping fronts and fragment baroclinic leafs off the eastern seaboard - this most recent serving as a nice example. You guys remember that 951 mb low over ACK run the GFS had some 10 or 11 days ago ...? Ha ha, we're saying the usual suspects like, "It's just eye-candy, but - " love the head game. So I'm trying to figure how this season trend/tendency to over top, or under whiff might be overcome this week. The only thing that really bucks that trend ... beyond just random pattern change ... is this advent of -EPO and cold loading.. It's tough to know how that is going to resolve into a pattern forcing - whereby storm tracks and types would play-out differently. Firstly, according to GEFs derivatives, the EPO really doesn't start neggie until next weekend, but it does seem like early flow constructs hint already. We'll see. But the 00z guidance, as is ... seemed to play into each's own specific bias type - aggressively so .. The Euro went a tick or two more meridian in total structure everywhere with low. Contrasting the GFS's stretching bias ...seems to just end up with a system closer to Eastern Seaboard, ending up there because it's gaining a longitude every 6 hours by a couple degrees ... Probably just compromise in favor of the Euro might be the course of least regret. Normally I'd side like 70/30, Euro/GFS respectively at D5 buuut, the flow is awful fast. That doesn't lend to shorter wave lengths like the Euro needs to get it's deeper Cleveland primary. I'd say since we are crossing into D4.5 for regions east of 110 W in the guidance, this 12z run might begin that gap closer. If the GFS bumps NW than the Euro may be more correct with a stronger primary that attempts to lift up the seasonal trend St L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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