WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Looks like the blizzard of 78 What does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What does? The snowglobe on his office desk.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Some Wilton Felder on the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some Wilton Felder on the GFS op. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of divergence on guidance (and within their own ensembles) for next week....could literally be 60F or snowing and 20F next Wednesday/Thursday. Take the warm and wet scenario . It’s that kind of winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some Wilton Felder on the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some Wilton Felder on the GFS op. Related to Currier and Ives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: ? 1994 overrunning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just sit back and relax to the smooth sounds of Wilton Felder as +SNPL rips outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Fast forward to 5:12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: ? Local on the 8's cover music from back in the "day" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Fast forward to 5:12 LOL, a sick bunch we are. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: One of my favorite parts of the local forecast was actually looking at the pressure. I remember during the summer on days where t'storms were possible going crazy when I saw the pressure was dropping. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Classic - small flake and massive flake, thats how you knew the it was really going to snow. I was only 9 at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Classic Ron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 GGEM does bear some homage to that ... but, we wouldn't have quite the depth of cold air over NE as that which set stage for whatever materialized from that set up back whence. The Euro looks too - typically - deep in the west and hieghty back east as a downstream coupled result of too much digging west.. Even it it's only 3-6 dm of heights that crucial. Not saying any other guidance is right either necessarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 My clue for me getting a t'storm was Bradford, PA...you know that regional map thing they would have on the local where it would give current conditions across the region? If Bradford, PA was getting a t'storm...usually meant I was. That made me do some fun dances back in the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: GGEM does bear some homage to that ... but, we wouldn't have quite the depth of cold air over NE as that which set stage for whatever materialized from that set up back whence. The Euro looks too - typically - deep in the west and hieghty back east as a downstream coupled result of too much digging west.. Even it it's only 3-6 dm of heights that crucial. Not saying any other guidance is right either necessarily. UKMET was probably the most aggressive with the overrunning look next week...only goes out to 144 hours, but can extrapolate the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I don't like overrunning...usually get screwed with all the fun just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Euro definitely look a step toward the overrunning look but verbatim still a bit too far north for most of us....looks like NNE stays mostly/all frozen or freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: UKMET was probably the most aggressive with the overrunning look next week...only goes out to 144 hours, but can extrapolate the look ... No shit ... that's an ice-storm powder-keg ... My confidence is rattled frankly with weather modelling. This last fiasco is a pretty astounding failure at getting an overall mid range appeal into the short range. I mean getting real, we should expect losses ( and gains ) ..changes in doing so, as a base line expectation. But, this was bit more egregious than that. Anyway...we'll see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Euro has a second wave developing along the front once it sags back south....ice/snow setup around D8....but this whole thing looks pretty unstable. Midweek definitely needs to be resolved first before there's really any idea what might happen after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro has a second wave developing along the front once it sags back south....ice/snow setup around D8....but this whole thing looks pretty unstable. Midweek definitely needs to be resolved first before there's really any idea what might happen after that. He's trying for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro definitely look a step toward the overrunning look but verbatim still a bit too far north for most of us....looks like NNE stays mostly/all frozen or freezing. Thankfully the euro enjoys the nw solutions too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I see what he means... It's like the Euro's 850 mb is stayed, but it's depiction of the low level pressure pattern has the boundary along the southern coast/LI latitudes, and in that look, once you are on the polar side of that boundary it ain't going back through. So...if one is a warmista you're sol on mild days 6 and 7 from about HFD (6), and NYC (7)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: What has ? It's not the same as the end of the solar nadir stuff - the nadir period is empirically derived solar flux minimum. We're not outside that just yet - ok, maybe its the internal/mental shift to spring despite the calendar date, its just extra early this year...Which means, a -NAO sets up March 25th through June 15th this year, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: What does? Whoops. I was commenting on that Kazichstan video a few pages back. Forgot to quote it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 That boundary next week looks to be no joke...could be a rather substantial gradient...going from like +8C to -8C to in a rather small across a small horizontal scale. Also looks like it could be very active convectively in the south (mentioned this a few days ago!!) with severe outbreak possible...hopefully that won't rob any moisture. Often times too I feel like these overrunning scenarios struggle to pan out to what their first modeled to be. Something else too with the convection is if it is indeed active the models may struggle with the heights here in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro has a second wave developing along the front once it sags back south....ice/snow setup around D8....but this whole thing looks pretty unstable. Midweek definitely needs to be resolved first before there's really any idea what might happen after that. If you live in CT and are upset over frozen water, look away. While PF and friends have days and days of snow verbatim on the Euro, misery mist is occurring in CT. That's 94 displaced 150 miles. There is your north trend my friend on da mt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: ok, maybe its the internal/mental shift to spring despite the calendar date, its just extra early this year...Which means, a -NAO sets up March 25th through June 15th this year, heh...no argument .. everything is f-up frankly. These incredible high velocity depictions are basically what happens when the planetary Hadely Cell is extending into the lower middle latitudes, while the boreal seasonal heights are pressing from the N. When the velocities are high in between troughs, that is a base line trouble. But, it seems to expand in pulses... It receded last week and we relaxed the flow...but the N/stream seemed weak too, so we lost both and that ended up not helping winter storm enthusiast's intents and purposes. So it may not be fast flow all the time, either. I'm on the fence for Feb. I don't see that circumstantially going away at the convenience of any blocking episodes ...and in fact, blocking may not be favored anyway - indirectly related. Right now CDC/ESRL has -WPO/-EPO but it's shaky and may not be real. It's hard to create blocking when the L/W are stretching to accommodate velocity saturation. Just means ...too fast of flow to allow the the 'curl' needed to start that process... etc. It can happen... 2015 did this.. but, good luck. anyway, when/if the flow relaxes seasonally nearing March ( or starts too...), boom. God I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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