weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: That was written about the model a long time ago. We sure that's still the case? From what I read not long ago it's still a bias, though not as extreme as it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Meh offshore Euro. Nice little clippah follow up action that tries to redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Sounds like its known bias of burying energy in the SW. We EPS. EPS are skewed to a whiff too (e.g., 0Z, 6Z....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Throws some snow into all of sne though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: That was written about the model a long time ago. We sure that's still the case? Seems to still do it at times. Any one of these SW's can mess up this whole set up...and the final outcome could be nothing like what we have seen so far. This may potentially turn out to be nothing like what we've been seeing so far. This is so far from being figured out...?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: That was written about the model a long time ago. We sure that's still the case? I mentioned that earlier - it might have been a real bias in the old days, or it might have been voodoo. I'm sure there are a host of new issues with the Euro that are more "real." It is uncanny though that we are seeing that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Euro is close....but no cigar. Euro is definitely burying more energy than all the other guidance, so we'll see if it trends to releasing more going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT. blows up and retrogades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: From what I read not long ago it's still a bias, though not as extreme as it used to be. It still is. The Euro has 3 notable biases. At least the Op. Over-amplification in the 84-144 range, SW shortwave issues, and a bias towards overamplifying RNA patterns beyond 180. We have seen the Op love to show SE ridges at all times of the year beyond day 7 and when we get there the flow is zonal or even an eastern trof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 This week in a nutshell. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT. blows up and retrogades You'll struggle to breathe when you see the CMA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT. blows up and retrogades Not out of the question. Everything else kind of hints at that possibility 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not? 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not? no one knows at this range. thats impossible to answer. no one is out of the game yet. Right now many solutions are on the table. All these SW have not been properly sampled yet either. patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not? Dude Come on 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not? No. This isn’t a Miller B event. There is a narrow possibility the NS interaction happens late enough for SNE but not NYC but that is a fairly unusual scenario with Miller As. I can count on one hand the number of times NYC has had a total miss with a Miller A and SNE has been destroyed due to late NS interaction or capturing. Now they may see way less snow like a 1/26/87 but not a total shutout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not? I think it's a long shot for coastal areas. Just a lot of things going against it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It still is. The Euro has 3 notable biases. At least the Op. Over-amplification in the 84-144 range, SW shortwave issues, and a bias towards overamplifying RNA patterns beyond 180. We have seen the Op love to show SE ridges at all times of the year beyond day 7 and when we get there the flow is zonal or even an eastern trof It wouldn't surprise me if the EC still has the SW US bias....maybe just not as intense as it used to be. I remember looking for more information on newer versions of the ECMWF last winter, but the latest I could find was 2011 or 2012 and it still had the bias back then of heights too low on D+3 forecast over the SW CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Dude Come on Real your boy in or just handcuff him already. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT. blows up and retrogades if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT. blows up and retrogades 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It wouldn't surprise me if the EC still has the SW US bias....maybe just not as intense as it used to be. I remember looking for more information on newer versions of the ECMWF last winter, but the latest I could find was 2011 or 2012 and it still had the bias back then of heights too low on D+3 forecast over the SW CONUS. They’ve done so many darn updates it’s hard to track. The January 2013 or 2014 update (I blocked the storm out of my mind) was right before the massive NYC bust and the model really struggled after that. Subsequent smaller upgrades have improved it and the upgrade in April 2019 appeared to solve that mid range overamp bias however the last 4 weeks that bias has returned again. In October thru December I thought for a time the upgraded improved it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 @ORH_wxmanHow was it relative to 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not? You seriously need to ask that??? Check back Thursday or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not? This post belongs in the weenie hall of fame 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @ORH_wxmanHow was it relative to 06z? NVM ...saw. Today is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: This post belongs in the weenie hall of fame So true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 EPS is still solid this far out. Mean has decent precip in ern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS is still solid this far out. Mean has decent precip in ern areas. Plenty of members west of the op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS is still solid this far out. Mean has decent precip in ern areas. All we need to know at D6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, RDRY said: if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT. blows up and retrogades Look at the NAVGEM too. Crappy models ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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