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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion


TalcottWx
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's usually because cutters can go through Michigan or worse....so if they trend 400 miles east it is still a rainstorm. We're usually not tracking storms 300 miles east of George's Bank (maybe occasionally, lol).

Well, a cutter can go through MN if it wants to lol.  I’m talking Buffalo vs Nova Scotia lol. 

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6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

I mostly follow their tweets, don't really watch them on TV.

I think this is more what I was thinking when I made my statement.

And to help keep us on topic. I don't hate the ensemble look either. At least this time we're not rooting for it to stay underneath us.  Much prefer wishing for a NW trend than praying for it to trend southeast.

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is true, but you know yourself how a system of gulf origins usually trends in the final few days before verification..

Yeah sometimes...guess it depends on the pattern. I can think of many that stubbornly stayed to our south in the final 3-4 days of tracking it. But I agree I'd rather have a gulf origin system showing a whiff or scraper vs being over ALB at this stage.

 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah sometimes...guess it depends on the pattern. I can think of many that stubbornly stayed to our south in the final 3-4 days of tracking it. But I agree I'd rather have a gulf origin system showing a whiff or scraper vs being over ALB at this stage.

 

Yea, there are exceptions...but most of those I'll bet involved strong confluence, which we don't have in this instance. That said, obviously a miss is on the table.

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10 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

No, pretty much never for the last decade at least. My plow buddies etc are constantly asking me for information this time of year. 

The same here. I find it more informative and refreshing to multi sample the east coast forums for a take on what might,  could or will happen. I like to direct folks to the forum. I find reading the raw material before it is doctored by the professional media is better, at least for me. As always ....

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23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Do people (especially those here on the board) still watch the news for weather forecasts?

For me, I don't watch or listen to anyone specifically for a forecast because I make my own forecasts but I will watch different newscasts to see how a system is playing out in the media.  One nice thing these days is being able to watch news on-demand from different markets online and through channels on smart devices like Roku's.

In the general public, I think there is a large segment that relies on TV, radio & online print sources for their weather, particularly in the morning.

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Bottom line here, at least we have something to track and watch that has "Some Potential" for SNE currently.  It's a complicated/convoluted set up with all the Short-Waves floating around, and how all that comes to together/gets resolved will obviously determine what ultimately happens with this potential system, and how it affects the area.  

 

Late Blooming is definitely a possibility, but I wouldn't be worrying about that 6 days out...to much time left to go,  where all options are still on the table.   No option is more likely than any other at this lead time imo.    

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

6z GEFS were dishing up something, albeit slightly later than some guidance. I don't want to jinx this, but deep down I feel there is opportunity here. 

Jinx

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It's still early when you have this mess to figure out.

image.png

Yeah, Good luck with that getting figured out right now.

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1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Do people (especially those here on the board) still watch the news for weather forecasts?

I try to watch as many of the TV mets as possible especially if there is an approaching winter storm. Some mets  I like better than others.  I have a side gig with a baseball scouting service so I will pay a lot of attention to the weather forecasts during the spring and summer. Also I scout for a hs football team so I will watch the TV mets to stay up to date on the forecast for the upcoming games on Friday and Saturday. 

 There is nothing worse than a long rain delay prior to or during a game. And one of the job requirements is I have to stay until the game is completed , postponed or called during a game. I once  left a NH Fisher Cats game at slightly after 1 AM. There was a 21/2 hour rain delay to start the game. Normally the game would have been rained out but it was Akron's only trip to NH. 
 

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