Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: yall might wanna check out the 12zNAVGEM evolution at 500mb also. thats a possibility also. another interesting possible solution. hr180 on the NAVGEM shows how easily this can become all NS if that SS slides east initially and faster We're spraying solutions all over the plausibility map ... yeah, we know - Nothing is also possible for that matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nah .... it's only personally guilty if you think it's for validation - as in, it's going to happen. There's nothing wrong with having fun - it's a social media pass-time, one that has emerged because of the Internet advent meets with models that should be available to the tax-payers that ultimately foot the bill. It's just that people's purpose for the engagement vary, ...some unhealthy. That's not us - or 'me' anyway. The 12z Euro now is two runs back to back with no bueno on anything. Hard to to tell ... it did flatten the undulate big-time western ridge signal as I suspected, but it's - I think - tizzying over what to do with the wave lengths down stream and it's messed it up. Heh, in an intuitive since, it may be a better sign for a system for that model to "not" carry one at D7.5. I mean, if it's finding its way with the pattern, you almost don't want it tossing up bombs because than you know you got no fun there. I'm curious about the EPS Good points you make. I agree with the uncertainty it's tumbling over with the s/w's downstream; lots of moving pieces and the mean spreads show it. My initial thought on the EPS is that it will be pretty similar to previous run since the op kept its east bias. If anything the EPS may be a hair further east than before. Just my thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m actually fine with the euro. I’m tired of the diarrhea from clouds that has comprised this winter. Either snow or whiff. Yeah... I don’t hate where the euro is honestly. Better than it being over Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Good points you make. I agree with the uncertainty it's tumbling over with the s/w's downstream; lots of moving pieces and the mean spreads show it. My initial thought on the EPS is that it will be pretty similar to previous run since the op kept its east bias. If anything the EPS may be a hair further east than before. Just my thought. I've noticed that the EPS mean tends to deviate from it's operational version less so than say the GEPs with the GGEM, or GEFs and GFS. ... In a sense, when it doesn that might be more of a telling red flag. The 00z version of the mean was at least a little more coalesced SE of the Cape/Long Island than the operational nadda...so, that was interesting. I'm curious if that slight, yet plausibly important differential persists or as you say...slips east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 EPS has a signal. Clearly members all over, but I don’t hate the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 EPS have something a bit more substantial than the OP but clearly still skewing wide right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS has a signal. Clearly members all over, but I don’t hate the look. Not a bad spot honestly at d7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m actually fine with the euro. I’m tired of the diarrhea from clouds that has comprised this winter. Either snow or whiff. Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've noticed that the EPS mean tends to deviate from it's operational version less so than say the GEPs with the GGEM, or GEFs and GFS. ... In a sense, when it doesn that might be more of a telling red flag. The 00z version of the mean was at least a little more coalesced SE of the Cape/Long Island than the operational nadda...so, that was interesting. I'm curious if that slight, yet plausibly important differential persists or as you say...slips east. The GEFS usually have no dispersion because it’s an inferior model. Just follow the leader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not a bad spot honestly at d7 That’s my sentiment too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: That’s my sentiment too. Me, three. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Me, three. I’d rather it whiff than get another flooding rainstorm or another storm that drops an inch of garbage over to rain. You get the point. A scraper would be fine with me... at least it would be snowy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 WeatherBell must be behind if ya'll are already posting 12Z EPS. I know WSI gets it faster than most model sites just didn't think it was that much faster than WeatherBell. Edit: I got it now. Life resumes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've noticed that the EPS mean tends to deviate from it's operational version less so than say the GEPs with the GGEM, or GEFs and GFS. ... In a sense, when it doesn that might be more of a telling red flag. The 00z version of the mean was at least a little more coalesced SE of the Cape/Long Island than the operational nadda...so, that was interesting. I'm curious if that slight, yet plausibly important differential persists or as you say...slips east. Don't see a noticeable difference with the EPS compared to previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d rather it whiff than get another flooding rainstorm or another storm that drops an inch of garbage over to rain. You get the point. A scraper would be fine with me... at least it would be snowy Hey at least when you get rain, the mountains have a shot at snow . You know it’s been bad when a 1-3” scrapper would be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 This is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 There are some monster solutions among the members. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The 11-15 got more weenie-ish again. Ebb and flow on that...general theme is there though for a much better longwave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Anyone down for a gtg next Friday night or Saturday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The 11-15 got more weenie-ish again. Ebb and flow on that...general theme is there though for a much better longwave pattern. I thought I heard faint screams from the mid atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone down for a gtg next Friday night or Saturday? Awfully tough on super bowl weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Awfully tough on super bowl weekend... Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 EPS 11-15 look good....GEFS much improved...just maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 12z GEPS not nearly as tucked as OP....similar to 00z, maybe a hair more precip near coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 OT but RIP Kobe-sad news! 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 18 Z GFS looks like EPS mean, late blooming , nails Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I'm waiting until mid week to start tracking this threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 23 pages into February discussion and it’s still a week away. Times are tough. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Congrats Caribou! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 What a weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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