TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Snow and snow for days. Prepare for Armageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I want a 945mb bomb at the benchmark so bad. Watch the models be consistent this go around and it will be 250 miles southwest of where we need it to be. We don't want it to occlude before it reaches the benchmark. If we have any say, it will occlude after upon reaching the benchmark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 GFS has it pretty active early on with another system around feb 4/5.. currenlty I'm expecting rain from both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I want a 945mb bomb at the benchmark so bad. Watch the models be consistent this go around and it will be 250 miles southwest of where we need it to be. We don't want it to occlude before it reaches the benchmark. If we have any say, it will occlude after upon reaching the benchmark. It might occlude over your fanny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: It might occlude over your fanny Maybe, that is why it sucks it is so far out. A Super Bowl bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 That follow up one on the GFS on 4/5th down to 976mb with no moisture to work with is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 38 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I want a 945mb bomb at the benchmark so bad. Watch the models be consistent this go around and it will be 250 miles southwest of where we need it to be. We don't want it to occlude before it reaches the benchmark. If we have any say, it will occlude after upon reaching the benchmark. Not guarantee that a track like that would be snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Albert A Clipper said: way to set the bar super low, it can only get better from here! Lol yup...we're learning fast now. That bomb is a fantasy anyway. It'll be gone next run...or a cutter. Pipe dream for sure. Just eye candy that's all it is now. I mean 10 days out...what can go wrong? Euro won't have anything close to that GFS depiction...not that the Euro hasn't had it's flops of late too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I want a cle '78 superbomb, that'd get this board hopping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Although a storm of that magnitude would turn this Crap season around on a Dime...for all. Too bad it's not 4 days away...and even then it would be iffy in this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Thank goodness the troll clown nurse didn’t start a thread for once. Good times ahead for winter lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Looks like we get a Manitoba Mauler coming after day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks like we get a Manitoba Mauler coming after day 10 euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Kinky isobars over metfan's head. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 EPS has a signal for something that could either be 1/31 or 2/1....or even 2/2 as a second system.....multiple shortwaves in the flow. You could even see it on the OP when it tried to give us something 1/31 before that redeveloper at D10 on 2/2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has a signal for something that could either be 1/31 or 2/1....or even 2/2 as a second system.....multiple shortwaves in the flow. You could even see it on the OP when it tried to give us something 1/31 before that redeveloper at D10 on 2/2. All you can ask for is chances maybe something breaks in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has a signal for something that could either be 1/31 or 2/1....or even 2/2 as a second system.....multiple shortwaves in the flow. You could even see it on the OP when it tried to give us something 1/31 before that redeveloper at D10 on 2/2. Pattern looks more favorable around that time with ridging out west. Better cold feed. See if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has a signal for something that could either be 1/31 or 2/1....or even 2/2 as a second system.....multiple shortwaves in the flow. You could even see it on the OP when it tried to give us something 1/31 before that redeveloper at D10 on 2/2. Definitely the op keeping the shortwaves distinct features rather than the GFS that's a phase on phase on phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 The euro ensembles definitely still look a lot better going into early February. No negative changes today. In fact, there's early signs of a -NAO in the 11-15...first time we've seen that in a while. But the ball really gets rolling first with the PNA ridging out west around d7-8. EPO isn't overly robust but it's no longer overly hostile by D10-11. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The euro ensembles definitely still look a lot better going into early February. No negative changes today. In fact, there's early signs of a -NAO in the 11-15...first time we've seen that in a while. But the ball really gets rolling first with the PNA ridging out west around d7-8. EPO isn't overly robust but it's no longer overly hostile by D10-11. Yeah, starts kicking that vortex out around the 3rd as the Hudson ridge moves closer to Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The euro ensembles definitely still look a lot better going into early February. No negative changes today. In fact, there's early signs of a -NAO in the 11-15...first time we've seen that in a while. But the ball really gets rolling first with the PNA ridging out west around d7-8. EPO isn't overly robust but it's no longer overly hostile by D10-11. Perhaps a dumb question....but do you think this is legit? Or another head-fake? I know you're not a fortune teller, but is there anything here that makes you think this won't do what just happened with the total collapse of the previous good looking Mid-Long Range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I’m not buying anything until D2 for now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Perhaps a dumb question....but do you think this is legit? Or another head-fake? I know you're not a fortune teller, but is there anything here that makes you think this won't do what just happened with the total collapse of the previous good looking Mid-Long Range. It's not a whopper or extreme pattern being advertised, so I don't see a reason to doubt it right now. Could the EPO dislodging be rushed? Yeah it might be....though our first storm threat occurs before that happens. We're going more of a PNA-driven threat with a serviceable airmass near peak cold climo. The EPO starts relaxing more after that D8-10 period....and maybe the NAO starts becoming less hostile, though I'm always more skeptical of that until it's much closer....but even a neutral NAO look would be better than the absolute dung we've had the past several weeks. This is the first 3 weeks of this month for H5 anomalies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Perhaps a dumb question....but do you think this is legit? Or another head-fake? I know you're not a fortune teller, but is there anything here that makes you think this won't do what just happened with the total collapse of the previous good looking Mid-Long Range. The QBO rate of descent has always favored later in the season for a less hostile polar domain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The QBO rate of descent has always favored later in the season for a less hostile polar domain. All going according to plan. #outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: All going according to plan. #outlook We'll see...only halfway home. I was pretty close at this time last year, too...lol. Difference is the second half need not be extreme to verify this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Cannot predict the final result for the month of February but could end up not so much epic but likely more salvageable in terms that the month might provide closer to normal snowfall and maybe slightly above temperatures. Noticing the trend my thoughts is that March is likely the month that we get a normal to slightly below normal. But some will likely continue snow-less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Pretty nice warming at 50mb emanating from Siberia pushing into AK. Starts to elongate the vortex. That’s nice to see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty nice warming at 50mb emanating from Siberia pushing into AK. Starts to elongate the vortex. That’s nice to see. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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