8611Blizz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Wasn't that Bruce's swan song? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Look at the maps from Dec 92. Look at the valley snow totals and then look at the Hill totals on either side. I recall people saying the moon was visible in that in the valley while hills pounded 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Watch WSW ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ...anyway, I realize I've been mentioning 1992 in my own rites as of late, but my inclusion of that - for the record - was purely objective in that just at a 'superficial impression' it does bare resemblance. Not sure how far to take that though. I don't know if this event will pull anything close to that... there were tides and coastal wind problems with 1992 that were making that a multi-facet impact, and adding to its historic profile. etc..etc.. I think that was a spring tide too? Don't quote but something helped elevate the seas - yes it may have just been longevity/long shore fetch lasting for 30 hours and maybe just a bigger ISE than usual that did it too.. Anyway, this system is lacking surface and critical thickness depth, baroclinic gradients ( different subject matter than geopotential height compression) . We have amorphous frontal slopes and definitions and you really need that in the total cyclone genesis antecedence. We can make up for it by two ways - the way I see it.. The models could be too normalized as an error, and we end up with more low level thickness and thermal packing than is/was presently indicated... The other way is more top down, and suppose there is a bigger correction than normal as this relays off the Pacific, and we end up with more mechanical forcing aloft and destablizing the column that way. If this thing looks like the the 00z guidance, tomorrow though, it's a forgettable probably and the boring idea has to be considered most probable. The GFS ( am aware the 12z ..>) has been vacillating between that 'crush' look -vs- a more pallid light cold rain and paw blats on the windshield - so we'll see if this hold when that data gets on board. Syzgy tide 1992 12 foot plus, this weekend 10 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, 8611Blizz said: Wasn't that Bruce's swan song? Yeah I believe his contract didn't get renewed about 2-3 months later. I don't necessarily think that storm was the reason though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Look at the maps from Dec 92. Look at the valley snow totals and then look at the Hill totals on either side. I recall people saying the moon was visible in that in the valley while hills pounded Yes....low elevations to the E of the ORH hills did fine. Sure, it was 16-18" instead of 36-42", but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Low elevation can make out fine, as long as you don't have elevations to your north or east....and have sufficient latitude. Biggest hills are to my West. Do have some bigger hills about 20mi E of me. I don't really care as long as it's not rain. I'll take my 6" of baking powder while Hubby gets 20" of feathers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I believe his contract didn't get renewed about 2-3 months later. I don't necessarily think that storm was the reason though. True but I would guess that didn't really help his cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: WSW ? Lol, wait and see ULL boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Biggest hills are to my West. Do have some bigger hills about 20mi E of me. I don't really care as long as it's not rain. I'll take my 6" of baking powder while Hubby gets 20" of feathers. i got nothing to my NE.. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Hills are gonna do well, valleys not so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 44 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I feel pretty comfortable declaring suppression won't be an issue.... It might be. Depends on your perspective, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 GEFS continue to tick south....they are still not as far south as the EPS though. You can see a more ENE track now though on the mean low center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Oh well, that was supposed to animate, but this site always screws up my animated gifs these days and they don't work. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 GFS is 4.2" for Boston, and about 10" for me...Berks 2'+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Man what a putrid air mass in front of that thing. If a fresh cP air mass was in place for that GFS run, good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Oh well, that was supposed to animate, but this site always screws up my animated gifs these days and they don't work. Make sure you manually upload it and don't drag it or paste it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Make sure you manually upload it and don't drag it or paste it in. I've tried that....I usually manually upload it, but it just keeps a static image. Not sure why. I tried uploaing it to an imagehosting site just now and directly linking too but that didn't work either....though if you click on it now it will animate using that method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Looks like Ukie is 25-30 minutes on meteocentre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS continue to tick south....they are still not as far south as the EPS though. You can see a more ENE track now though on the mean low center. Trend is your friend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS continue to tick south....they are still not as far south as the EPS though. You can see a more ENE track now though on the mean low center. Maybe you can pull Jeff back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 every few miles tick south is critical for us folks on the bubble... currently I'm in the 4-6" thinking with rain.. hopefully we can trend this to 10-12.. still think I rain at some point but the less the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 maybe we can have things to look like this: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Man what a putrid air mass in front of that thing. If a fresh cP air mass was in place for that GFS run, good lord. Yeah if we had an actual airmass, this would be pretty much locked in for big snows for a lot of the forum. But theres just enough with that polar high to make it work...just have less wiggle room and need more details to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 We'd be talking prolific totals for just about everyone if we had some semblance of an Arctic air mass. As it current;y stands, we are lying all the dynamics of the storm to draw in the cold air aloft down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I would really focus, pay attention to, or even look at BL temps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah if we had an actual airmass, this would be pretty much locked in for big snows for a lot of the forum. But theres just enough with that polar high to make it work...just have less wiggle room and need more details to go right. I wish we had last weekend's air mass, this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Draw your own conclusions.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah if we had an actual airmass, this would be pretty much locked in for big snows for a lot of the forum. But theres just enough with that polar high to make it work...just have less wiggle room and need more details to go right. The good news for SNE is that the conveyor belts look pretty favorable for strong dynamic cooling in heavy precipitation rates. As long as it doesn't occlude too early, you guys look to have a much better shot of it reaching it's peak intensity at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Draw your own conclusions.................. Still looks pretty far north as it has been the whole time....though given I need an electron microscope to see the details, can't tell if it trended at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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