mreaves Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Brrrp brrrp That would be Braaaap braaaap kind sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 This thread has gone full If you’re not getting snow in January, yes it sucks but the atmosphere manifests as it does and our mathematical models are still a fallible tool. Just have fun and go outside every day every season! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This thread has gone full If you’re not getting snow in January, yes it sucks but the atmosphere manifests as it does and our mathematical models are still a fallible tool. Just have fun and go outside every day every season! Nam has 1.5 ice in whites, Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nam has 1.5 ice in whites, Maine Winter is as winter does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 11 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Terrible for down this way...and into central New England. At least up north gets smoked. I was just flat out wrong about this; overlooked the ++EPO, and how the pacific is trending worse over time. Won’t do that again. Remarkable how that alone is trumping everything else, AND climo. Can’t fight a terrible pacific; not even in peak climo in New England. Noted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I was hopeful for some decent snow, but never took the high upaide bait. I posted Sunday that it looked like mainly rain. Next... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 5 hours ago, powderfreak said: We are all backyard biased by far. Honest statement deep down. not regarding wx outcomes...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Nice cold rn with some mix here. Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 At least signal for elevated convection is still there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 25 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Nice cold rn with some mix here. Wtf You know it’s bad when the main forecast x-factor in the AFD is whether frontogenic forcing will enhance rainfall rates. Oh well - sucks after the week of deep-ish winter that we just had, but these happen every year even up here. At least ski country should be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 6z Gefs are the uggliest so far many skunk all of NNE cept NW Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fz583 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Hows Houlten Maine north look for this one? Headed up to Caribou Saturday morning for a 4 day sledding bender. Thanks for the reply's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, fz583 said: Hows Houlten Maine north look for this one? Headed up to Caribou Saturday morning for a 4 day sledding bender. Thanks for the reply's. Cold and snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 All this cold to get nothing out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 NAM is still trying to keep the sfc low well south from about DIT to BOS. Hopefully that gives us a bit more of a northerly component to downslope a bit and minimize QPF. It's going to be a mess here with frozen ground and possibly over an inch of cold liquid falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Spaizzo said: All this cold to get nothing out of it probably won't be the last time this winter either. I knew we had to get a soaker sometime this month. Wouldn't be Jan without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fz583 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cold and snowy Thank you, looks like a good trip ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 This is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, dryslot said: This is ugly. heading back to square one. miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Lava Rock said: heading back to square one. miserable. As long as the foothills, Mthns and Northern Maine come out of this ok, I have no issues with it, Time to head NW, I think i'll go to Eustis next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Euro still shoots some sfc-based CAPE into southern New England!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 12z Nam not as zoinked as the 06z run, A few tics SE with the slp and less qpf around 0.75" instead of 1.75". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: As long as the foothills, Mthns and Northern Maine come out of this ok, I have no issues with it, Time to head NW, I think i'll go to Eustis next weekend. I am hoping that we don't go back to square one as Lava Rock suggests, though I know my location is slightly better to withstand this crappy system. BTV seems to think we get a sloppy mix SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 435 AM EST Thursday...Still anticipate a wintry event to occur over the weekend. Model guidance continues to be in disagreement with the details, however. Low pressure across the Great Lakes will give way to a secondary low which will develop over the Mid Atlantic states, then lift north or northeast. The question will be exactly where and when this secondary low tracks and how quickly its cold air moves into our area. This has big implications on precip type and amounts. Warm advection precip will move in during the day Saturday, becoming heaviest during the evening hours as a band of strong frontogenetical forcing lifts across the region. The NAM takes the secondary low to our south, while the GFS and CMC actually lift northward through NY, keeping it to our west. The NAM solution would mean a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain as east- southeast flow would keep low-level cold air locked up on the eastern side of the Greens and portions of the Adirondacks. However, it should be noted that the warm nose aloft could well be eroded away as evaporational cooling brings the temp aloft down to the wet- bulb temperature which would mean more of a rain/snow type of profile. Meanwhile, the the CMC and GFS solutions would mean snow going to rain with perhaps just a bit of freezing rain or sleet mixed in at the transition. Also noted that the SREF p-type plumes are indicating the most likely p-type east of the Greens will be rain, followed closely by freezing rain at 30-35%. Given all this...have stayed with mainly a rain/snow precip type based on surface temps, but added a slight chance of freezing rain for areas below 32F. This and the warmer GFS and CMC solutions ended up cutting back on snow amounts; now anticipate 2 to 4 inches across much of northern NY where the colder air is more likely to hang in. Much of VT would get 1 to 3 inches of snow, with higher amounts in the higher terrain in the south central Greens. The aforementioned east-southeast flow would result in shadowing in the Northeast Kingdom, so for now expect an inch or less there. Regardless of where the low tracks, colder air will spread from west to east on Sunday once the secondary moves to our east. Flow turns to the north-northwest, which will allow snow showers to become focused along the western slopes of the higher terrain. Temperatures through this entire period will likely be within 5 degrees of freezing, making the precip type and amount forecast even more challenging. Lots of details still need to be ironed out, so stay tuned for later forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, mreaves said: I am hoping that we don't go back to square one as Lava Rock suggests, though I know my location is slightly better to withstand this crappy system. BTV seems to think we get a sloppy mix SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 435 AM EST Thursday...Still anticipate a wintry event to occur over the weekend. Model guidance continues to be in disagreement with the details, however. Low pressure across the Great Lakes will give way to a secondary low which will develop over the Mid Atlantic states, then lift north or northeast. The question will be exactly where and when this secondary low tracks and how quickly its cold air moves into our area. This has big implications on precip type and amounts. Warm advection precip will move in during the day Saturday, becoming heaviest during the evening hours as a band of strong frontogenetical forcing lifts across the region. The NAM takes the secondary low to our south, while the GFS and CMC actually lift northward through NY, keeping it to our west. The NAM solution would mean a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain as east- southeast flow would keep low-level cold air locked up on the eastern side of the Greens and portions of the Adirondacks. However, it should be noted that the warm nose aloft could well be eroded away as evaporational cooling brings the temp aloft down to the wet- bulb temperature which would mean more of a rain/snow type of profile. Meanwhile, the the CMC and GFS solutions would mean snow going to rain with perhaps just a bit of freezing rain or sleet mixed in at the transition. Also noted that the SREF p-type plumes are indicating the most likely p-type east of the Greens will be rain, followed closely by freezing rain at 30-35%. Given all this...have stayed with mainly a rain/snow precip type based on surface temps, but added a slight chance of freezing rain for areas below 32F. This and the warmer GFS and CMC solutions ended up cutting back on snow amounts; now anticipate 2 to 4 inches across much of northern NY where the colder air is more likely to hang in. Much of VT would get 1 to 3 inches of snow, with higher amounts in the higher terrain in the south central Greens. The aforementioned east-southeast flow would result in shadowing in the Northeast Kingdom, so for now expect an inch or less there. Regardless of where the low tracks, colder air will spread from west to east on Sunday once the secondary moves to our east. Flow turns to the north-northwest, which will allow snow showers to become focused along the western slopes of the higher terrain. Temperatures through this entire period will likely be within 5 degrees of freezing, making the precip type and amount forecast even more challenging. Lots of details still need to be ironed out, so stay tuned for later forecasts. I don't think we will be going back to square one, Right now, Just looking to minimize the damage if possible, Still seems to be a lot of uncertainty but its no surprise every system so far this winter has been that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Yeah sign me up for that. About a half inch of liquid. It actually starts as snow here on this run. That's close to an isothermal snow for Gene's area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: I don't think we will be going back to square one, Right now, Just looking to minimize the damage if possible, Still seems to be a lot of uncertainty but its no surprise every system so far this winter has been that way. May have to travel next weekend to Maine for the open weekend. Sleds are already on the trailer and may not be taken off this weekend. I do like to see the NAM reduce qpf output. I can at least have something to tell myself is a positive sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: May have to travel next weekend to Maine for the open weekend. Sleds are already on the trailer and may not be taken off this weekend. I do like to see the NAM reduce qpf output. I can at least have something to tell myself is a positive sign. You would enjoy it, Western and Northern Maine will be fine on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: You would enjoy it, Western and Northern Maine will be fine on this one. I think anywhere in western Maine is going to be overrun with sleds because of proximity to NH. Many people from further away from the state line that I have talked to over the years at the snowmobile show haven't even been all that aware there is an open weekend. I'd probably want to get to at least Millinocket. I haven't been that far up. I'm still unsure whether we are going to do it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Nam not as zoinked as the 06z run, A few tics SE with the slp and less qpf around 0.75" instead of 1.75". either way, we'll get that much needed moisture into the pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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