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January 25-26 Threat


HoarfrostHubb
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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Admit it, you were concerned more about suppression rather then the SLP tracking over your fanny.

As well as some thought Dec 02  with the eastern firehose was knocking on the door...........lol, I think that's the part where i mention the one extreme to the other in 24 hrs, Still not that far off to get back to something more meaningful.

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3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Thinking the warming/north trend is nearing an end ....Trend towards south/colder likely to begin shortly...How far? Not sure but some kind of middle ground of yesterday’s 0z/6z runs vs today’s 0z/6z runs seems like a good baseline, hedging in favor of colder/south vs warmer/north

Spoke to soon? Lol

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The pivotal maps look more weenieish than the basic slp/850 maps I posted. They seem to be supporting a lot of snow south of the 0C 850 line at 90 hours. 

Thats prob why there was some slight difference in opinion. Sounding must be close to isothermal for that to happen. 

 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pivotal maps look more weenieish than the basic slp/850 maps I posted. They seem to be supporting a lot of snow south of the 0C 850 line at 90 hours. 

Thats prob why there was some slight difference in opinion. Sounding must be close to isothermal for that to happen. 

 

So were the SV maps, Started as snow flipped to rain then back to snow at the end, I was going to say it has to be something with the vendors i'm guessing.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pivotal maps look more weenieish than the basic slp/850 maps I posted. They seem to be supporting a lot of snow south of the 0C 850 line at 90 hours. 

Thats prob why there was some slight difference in opinion. Sounding must be close to isothermal for that to happen. 

 

Typically the snowline is some 400 meters below the zero isotherm level. So if the zero isotherm (freezing point) is 2000 meters precipitation will fall as snow to 1600 meters. That is because the snow won't instantly melt as it passes through the freezing level. It takes time for the warm air to transfer energy to the snowflakes and melt them. Indeed passing from a solid to liquid state, the phase change, requires energy to break the bonds between molecules but it does not increase the temperature.When precipitation is heavy it takes a lot more energy from the surrounding air to melt the snowflakes. This takes a lot of heat out of the atmosphere which causes a localized cooling, especially if there is no wind to mix up the air. If the temperature of the air below the freezing level is not far above zero the snowflakes can fall a considerable distance before melting.

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2 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Typically the snowline is some 400 meters below the zero isotherm level. So if the zero isotherm (freezing point) is 2000 meters precipitation will fall as snow to 1600 meters. That is because the snow won't instantly melt as it passes through the freezing level. It takes time for the warm air to transfer energy to the snowflakes and melt them. Indeed passing from a solid to liquid state, the phase change, requires energy to break the bonds between molecules but it does not increase the temperature.When precipitation is heavy it takes a lot more energy from the surrounding air to melt the snowflakes. This takes a lot of heat out of the atmosphere which causes a localized cooling, especially if there is no wind to mix up the air. If the temperature of the air below the freezing level is not far above zero the snowflakes can fall a considerable distance before melting.

As most have in here, But some melted even before then....................:)

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5 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Typically the snowline is some 400 meters below the zero isotherm level. So if the zero isotherm (freezing point) is 2000 meters precipitation will fall as snow to 1600 meters. That is because the snow won't instantly melt as it passes through the freezing level. It takes time for the warm air to transfer energy to the snowflakes and melt them. Indeed passing from a solid to liquid state, the phase change, requires energy to break the bonds between molecules but it does not increase the temperature.When precipitation is heavy it takes a lot more energy from the surrounding air to melt the snowflakes. This takes a lot of heat out of the atmosphere which causes a localized cooling, especially if there is no wind to mix up the air. If the temperature of the air below the freezing level is not far above zero the snowflakes can fall a considerable distance before melting.

This should be looking more at wetbulb temperature. Not where a 0C isotherm is.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pivotal maps look more weenieish than the basic slp/850 maps I posted. They seem to be supporting a lot of snow south of the 0C 850 line at 90 hours. 

Thats prob why there was some slight difference in opinion. Sounding must be close to isothermal for that to happen. 

 

Yeah. I was looking at pivotal soundings. Pretty much isothermal for Mitch and Gene at peak.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The pivotal maps of the worst. They are definitely way too weenie-ish. 

Agreed. Esp in that type of setup. 

Not that is really matters anyway. What's going to stop this ULL from tracking into Toronto? Someone convince me it won't with a good argument. That confluence shortwave has trended weaker almost contuiously every run for the past 30 hours. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly haven’t looked at those maps today. But in the past I was wondering how the F was it generating the snow that it did with those temperatures at 925 and 850.

I’m just going by the soundings they have. They looked isothermal where it was painting snow. Maybe they improved the ptype maps with all of the mandatory levels added. I didn’t look at a clown though. 

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