RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: 4ish days out, it's the GFS with a developing coastal, I will assume that it gets the right idea Friday night....We are somewhat close to 32 degree power problems, we shall see. It is January and not March This. Very very close for us. Like 1C off from a roof collapser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 That would still be a winter storm warning in the least for E MA. The back end during stack and stall would be a burial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: That would still be a winter storm warning in the least for E MA. The back end during stack and stall would be a burial. 3/5/01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I did like seeing the dynamics. That was a shitload of QPF. It trend south a but with the ULL..but like Will said..the orientation matters. I'd rather see srfc south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Elevation FTW (Hubbdave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: Is it an improvement overall for SNE away from the shore? I thought so but at this lead time just another solution. We’re close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This. Very very close for us. Like 1C off from a roof collapser. I agree...not very far off for us. Just want to continue seeing improvements aloft...will deal with thermals as we get closer. but at the end of the day...if we continue to see these improvements aloft thermals won't be of concern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I feel pretty comfortable declaring suppression won't be an issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Back end snow here on that solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 Up and in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was cold though. We don’t have that with this. That’s why” It’s Tricky” Climo/SSTS are also more favorable than they were on 12/3, which negates some of the limitations with regard to the airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I feel like the mid levels and where this approaches from over the center of the country means us coastal folk will really need this to thread the needle. I'd feel great in the far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 CMC is late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: CMC is late I saw it...just came out on WSI and it's a clown solution...wrapping up a super tight, wound-up ULL that goes over like NYC, up through SNE and into Maine. It was initially further south though out in the plains/midwest, so we're starting to see a convergence there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Climo/SSTS are also more favorable than they were on 12/3, which negates some of the limitations with regard to the airmass. Sst’s definitely are but BL temps are not looking good despite late January Almost thread the needle w this airmass over 495 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: 3/5/01 I have been mentioning that as a potential ceiling for a couple of days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 So 12z CMC went cray cray right out of the gate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Elevation FTW (Hubbdave) Yeah but latitude will be important too. Yeah, I'd feel better over 1000' but I guess that's true with most storms right? Could be a shadow job of baking powder here and worse in the lower valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The SWFE thread went ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Sst’s definitely are but BL temps are not looking good despite late January I wasn't mentioning them as two, discrete issues...they are related...ie more moderate SSTs is more conducive to skating by with a tepid air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah but latitude will be important too. Yeah, I'd feel better over 1000' but I guess that's true with most storms right? Could be a shadow job of baking powder here and worse in the lower valley. Low elevation can make out fine, as long as you don't have elevations to your north or east....and have sufficient latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah but latitude will be important too. Yeah, I'd feel better over 1000' but I guess that's true with most storms right? Could be a shadow job of baking powder here and worse in the lower valley. I’m thinking for mostly frozen south of a Dover NH/ MHT line elevation may play a large role Deep Erly flow and marginal airmass scream in and up higher to me , thou sure a 32-33 paste could occur lots of details to be worked out for my area thru 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: So 12z CMC went cray cray right out of the gate. A ton of rain for the SNE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I would not want to be in an interior valley....I'd rather take my chances near the ocean in ne MA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m thinking for mostly frozen south of a Dover NH/ MHT line elevation may play a large role Deep Erly flow and marginal airmass scream in and up higher to me , thou sure a 32-33 paste could occur lots of details to be worked out This is why the exact position of the high will be so important....if I am west of the cf, and winds are NNE, there will be power issues from a great deal of paste. East of the CF, Winds are ENE and its rain. Maybe a sharp gradient.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would not want to be in an interior valley....I'd rather take my chances near the ocean in ne MA. Agreed....I don't think NE MA is in a bad spot either for temps being closer to that dry air feed from the polar high.Elevation will be very useful too obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is why the exact position of the high will be so important....if I am west of the cf, and winds are NNE, there will be power issues from a great deal of paste. East of the CF, Winds are ENE and its rain. Maybe a sharp gradient.... I would rather play the odds with the CF, than be in an interior valley with on an easterly fetch aloft with a marginal air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 This is from the 3/5/2001 storm that Ray and Jerry mentioned. Will had a great writeup about it in here: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was cold though. We don’t have that with this. That’s why” It’s Tricky” Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: This is from the 3/5/2001 storm that Ray and Jerry mentioned. Will had a great writeup about it in here: "There's the demon".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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